Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hey guys, check this out... There should be a rule in the main-side model thread about using the word Mid-Atlantic, or MA for short. It is in every other post, and from folks who, you guessed it, live in the MA. "Looks good for the MA" "All we need is another 50 mile shift and the MA is in play" "Brings 3-6" to the northern MA this run" etc... That thread goes from NAM initialization to MA weenie-fest in no time flat, forcing a mental cut and paste just to gain useful information. Some things never change. Wow, anxious to see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Must be a good run of the Euro -- if it were bad, it would run on time ... Wow, anxious to see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 seems like the Euro is running slow. Still not initialized. I know....it has just now started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 At face value, this run of the Canadian would be a warning type event for areas along and west of a Columbia - Fayetteville - Elizabeth City line. Very similar to the 0z run, so continuity is there, with respect to backside QPF details. A little disconcerting that it takes the QPF so far north into the MA and NE, as climo favors it shutting off above the Delmarva. This started looking like a NE NC and SE VA special yesterday, and this run adds more confidence to that scenario, however, central NC and even parts of SC (and N GA) can do well in these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Must be a good run of the Euro -- if it were bad, it would run on time ... yeah its creeping. Its out to 18 hour now, and its recognizing the precip in Ala and Ga now, has it reaching as accum by the 18 hour, right to us. Temps aloft still below freezing, so if any thing can overcome this dry air, we may end up with some front end dusting anyway. Seems like the models have underestimated the precip in Ga and Alabama so far, although i know its light. Just snuck a peak at the 24 hour, and it has almost a .10 here, and by then we've changed over. The earlier and heavier the moisture , the more likely we have of a dusting anyway. Hoping it pulls a rabbit out of the hat on Saturday . Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the euro is colder and further south in NC for early tomorow, with about .10" or more in southern NC now. I think its recognized theres more moisture. It has the 2m temps subfreezing at south of CLT at 24 hours, and then jumps it to above 40 deg. by 18z. Front end shenanigans are possible even down here overnight and early am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 over .25" in n. NC and most of tha falls before going above freezing at the surface, so pretty decent winter storm there, but western VA is hit really hard. Overall more moisture in this for NC than previous runs. I think northern NC has a sig. snow to ice scenario tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm telling you, Dr. No is pissed that this run is a big hit for the Eastern Seaboard and so he's delaying release .... the euro is colder and further south in NC for early tomorow, with about .10" or more in southern NC now. I think its recognized theres more moisture. It has the 2m temps subfreezing at south of CLT at 24 hours, and then jumps it to above 40 deg. by 18z. Front end shenanigans are possible even down here overnight and early am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 over .25" in n. NC and most of tha falls before going above freezing at the surface, so pretty decent winter storm there, but western VA is hit really hard. Overall more moisture in this for NC than previous runs. I think northern NC has a sig. snow to ice scenario tomorrow. like I 40 north, or confined to near the border? Sorry for the IMBY question, just looking for some clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 by 42 hours the wave is out to sea, and the moisture is .10" in all of NC atleast, .25" in northern quarter, .50" in western VA , ne Tn, srn WVA some .75" there as well. . The 850 then is from southern VA to boone to southern Mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Time to see what the Euro has to say now that it's through with the Thursday system. Yay or nay for the weekend? *Cues the dramatic music* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hmmm. Haven't been following all this closely, but at 72 hours, the 850 0c line is almost at N.C./S.C. border -- isn't that colder? by 42 hours the wave is out to sea, and the moisture is .10" in all of NC atleast, .25" in northern quarter, .50" in western VA , ne Tn, srn WVA some .75" there as well. . The 850 then is from southern VA to boone to southern Mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yuck at the Euro 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well. Its out to 78 hours and the news isn't good. The zero is CLT to Ark/LA border, but the wave is flat. Its gone, poof. Just passing sprinkles or light rain in N. Ga. By 84 hour, a 1012 is strung out off the SE coast, some pockets of trace (less than.10) over the eastern Carolinas and some dots of less than .10" scattered in the Southeast. A complete non event, just passing cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well the euro is ugly for the weekend storm. Looks wide right and OTS. No precip makes in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dr. No is back and is pissed... Well. Its out to 78 hours and the news isn't good. The zero is CLT to Ark/LA border, but the wave is flat. Its gone, poof. Just passing sprinkles or light rain in N. Ga. By 84 hour, a 1012 is strung out off the SE coast, some pockets of trace (less than.10) over the eastern Carolinas and some dots of less than .10" scattered in the Southeast. A complete non event, just passing cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sigh ... Well. Its out to 78 hours and the news isn't good. The zero is CLT to Ark/LA border, but the wave is flat. Its gone, poof. Just passing sprinkles or light rain in N. Ga. By 84 hour, a 1012 is strung out off the SE coast, some pockets of trace (less than.10) over the eastern Carolinas and some dots of less than .10" scattered in the Southeast. A complete non event, just passing cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yuck at the Euro 84 hrs. 78 HRS there is almost NO sort wave at all in the STJ None... a flat fast slow with a weak flat low east of sc At-least were a little inside its "power-range" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This weekend event has been dead for at least 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 So it continues with the Euro and its pessimistic view of our weekend system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This could get interesting. We have every model against the euro. Let's see who wins this fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I have to admit, the euro hasn't been my fav. for storms this year since Oct. I think the GFS has handled things pretty well though. Theres a pretty big difference int eh southern stream seen on both. ECM is flat almost non-existent, whereas other models have more in tact. So it will be interesting to see if the GFS leads the way again on this, normally in the past it wasn't good to have the GFS on your side, but in some patterns the GFS is better. The cold air appears it will be here, but even that is close. We really need to amp that shortwave with a little pna ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well if that ain't a downer. Drats.....the EURO can't be that wrong inside of 96 hours, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 its doing the same as 00z last night northern stream looks better than a couple days ago but the s/w is getting crushed. either the nam and gfs and just about every other model are going to bust or the euro is having trouble with southwest energy again. but i think the american models are smoking something again like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Battle time folks... This could get interesting. We have every model against the euro. Let's see who wins this fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't think the Euro is the final nail in the coffin yet. After tomorrow we'll see the wave in question and get a much better handle on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 4:3 odds the 12z EC ens mean is more amplified than the op, book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this is everyone after the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well if that ain't a downer. Drats.....the EURO can't be that wrong inside of 96 hours, can it? Everyone living in the South should know that around here, any model can be VERY wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well if that ain't a downer. Drats.....the EURO can't be that wrong inside of 96 hours, can it? The gfs took it to task back in early Nov. From about 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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