burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just when I'm out the NAM comes and pulls me back in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yes. Looks like .1 or trace amounts to 2.5" or so... Yeah, and for those wondering the trace amounts are sporadic across the state of NC and the far northern tip top of GA. My guess would be the model is basically saying "whatever moisture is left over may be snow after the low pulls away." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would not worry about that to much, the 30hr panel is the one to be concerned with and shows the triangle <0C at 850, and this is the sim at 30hrs. This would be an isothermal event wile the with heavier returns, and the mid-levels warm once it shuts off. The 36 hr sim shows that it is over for you. You got the images before that one? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just when I'm out the NAM comes and pulls me back in! You and me both...... I had given up all hope and was just checking in by habit and noticed what the NAM was saying. These model runs are kiling me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You can't make this stuff up...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would not worry about that to much, the 30hr panel is the one to be concerned with and shows the triangle <0C at 850, and this is the sim at 30hrs. This would be an isothermal event wile the with heavier returns, and the mid-levels warm once it shuts off. The 36 hr sim shows that it is over for you. yep, good point. It looks like it drops a little more than .25 in RDU with .50 totals a little further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't know why anyone would say this is a done deal and move to the next one with the way the models are flip flopping like they have been. There's no telling what we will get with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hopefully I won't get in trouble for this, but this is SV's snow map from the NAM... 0 - 2 inches baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The NAM's snowfall output lays down 1-2 inches although it sometimes under does precip amounts. Meh. Looking at soundings, somebody under best the dynamics around "foothills" area to Charlotte would get close to 5 inches IMO. Soundings show an all snow profile with a 1/2 liquid falling during that time in the bullseye location. Especailly since the Ground temps are cold, and the sun angle is low this time of year. This probably doesn't matter either way as I'm sure this event isn't going to unfold just like the 18z NAM shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Also the track of this system could be a little incorrect. You never really know until you start seeing a now-cast type thing. The precip shields are usually underdone by the NAM and I wouldn't 100% write off something really nice for NC yet regardless of what the models say. The NAM is getting into it's best hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 And of course, CLT gets the 6hr local QPF Max, almost 0.5" 36hrs has a 1007 mb low off Hatteras, but it is severely elongated and disorganized, almost down to Cuba. We need more consolidation, even another 3-4 mb drop off the OBX compared to what this run shows would go a long way in squeezing out more moisture, and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You got the images before that one? Thanks Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And of course, CLT gets the 6hr local QPF Max, almost 0.5" 36hrs has a 1007 mb low off Hatteras, but it is severely elongated and disorganized, almost down to Cuba. We need more consolidation, even another 3-4 mb drop off the OBX compared to what this run shows would go a long way in squeezing out more moisture, and cold. lolz... of course? I say screw eastern NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like some very cold rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lolz... of course? I say screw eastern NC! You beat me to it! As much as I would like to see everyone in NC cash in I have been living in a giant freakin' snow triangle of death for several years and think it's about time our luck changed and ended up in the sweet spot for once! Hell I'll take whatever falls at this point as long it is is snow/sleet I may just drink myself so silly tonight I think what little rain falls tomorrow is actually snow and try to build a snowman out of rain puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here you go Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lolz... of course? I say screw eastern NC! No kidding. It's not like Charlotte is Alta, Utah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know guys, we can all just fix all of these suicidal thoughts by just moving to the mountains or something. We could even take it a step further and just go to Wisconsin. Then we'd wish it would stop snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Take your chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Burger. Looking on WW. The snowfall map is has better coverage as it banks up to the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll take another 1 or 2 inches of snow here. Anything in December is bonus, and we never know if we will get any in January and February. I'll gladly take all we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Burger. Looking on WW. The snowfall map is has better coverage as it banks up to the foothills Interesting, I know SV is pretty conservative usually with it's snow maps which is usually a good thing! Can't wait to see what Twister has to say with their map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Everyone, take a step back from the cliff. Certainly an interesting run. It looks like at least the Triangle could do OK with this, although points east might have some temperature issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know guys, we can all just fix all of these suicidal thoughts by just moving to the mountains or something. We could even take it a step further and just go to Wisconsin. Then we'd wish it would stop snowing. Shawn, I lived in Indianapolis, IN for a couple of years saw several 10" plus snows, had it snow 28 days in a row once, and experienced many many days below zero and never got tired of it! If I could move to the mountains believe me I would! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here you go I know its the 18z nam but with that slug of moisture over me I need a link to some soundings. Can someone help me out. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I like being about to look up at the sky at my house and see that big blue line off to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like some very cold rain for me Maybe even some backside flurries. Timing is terrible though, I doubt a few tenths will bring down much cold air to the sfc in mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I know its the 18z nam but with that slug of moisture over me I need a link to some soundings. Can someone help me out. Thanks. Go to twisterdata dot com and you can get skew-ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Interesting, I know SV is pretty conservative usually with it's snow maps which is usually a good thing! Can't wait to see what Twister has to say with their map lol. Best place to check out NAM sn maps is Earl Barker's site, as there are several different algorithms used to give the general flavor. The Kuchera method is the most accurate imo, but not the prettiest from a metaphysical accumulation standpoint. http://wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Best part of the NAM solution is that it gets us, grazes the MA then heads OTS. Of course SNE is hurting for snow this year and probably ready to commit suicide after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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