WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, here comes our flat sw through TX, also note the stalled boundary along the FL panhandle. Not expecting anything but -RN here, although a Sunday outing to the north for a little sledding would be a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It is cool. Frosty is our hook up on the JB. I love to hear what anyone has to say. I agree... and I was not taking a shot at anyone here on the board, don't get me wrong. I wasn't really pointing at the SE crew... read all up and down the NE boards and they just think he talks to Jesus. I get a little sick of it. And to answer Weather Czar's question, I remember quite a few systems last year while on Eastern that he completely blew. I wish I had the time to go back and find them. His prediction for the SE over all last year was right on the spot though, I give him that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It is cool. Frosty is our hook up on the JB. I love to hear what anyone has to say. Agreed. I may not like it, but I greatly appreciate the opportunity to see JB's viewpoint. Thanks Frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It is cool. Frosty is our hook up on the JB. I love to hear what anyone has to say. +1. Keep the updates coming frosty. Got to get back to work. I need to see how the current radar/obs is verifying against the models forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We need to keep our eye on the obs. Don't forget Jan 2000. The models were prediciting about what they are now back then and everyone knows how that turned out. Well, here comes our flat sw through TX, also note the stalled boundary along the FL panhandle. Not expecting anything but -RN here, although a Sunday outing to the north for a little sledding would be a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 More into SWNC Also NC-cen getting in on it at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It looks to me like the NAM gives far Northwest GA and SW NC a decent snow tomorrow morning.... It also looks like Charlotte would switch to snow Saturday afternoon with 1/2 of liquid falling... Of course I'm screwed here in the typical lee side boundary layer warmth bullcrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lol don't look now at the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 30hr 18z map is impressive for central NC....is it catching on to something or just an outlier. This has to be one of the most unique modeled storm in quite some time. I'm not sure what to believe at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just when you thought it was dead, the NAM brings it back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Afreakingmen... 30hr 18z map is impressive for central NC....is it catching on to something or just an outlier. This has to be one of the most unique modeled storm in quite some time. I'm not sure what to believe at this point! Here is the link for the 30 NAM slim. Link due to the fine setting! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_030l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do we continualy quote JB? Do some of you think of him as the Godfather? He completely whiffed last December... why would this one be any different? Where did he whiff last winter. He did pretty good here. His forecast came out in August when does your come out? I would like to read yours. No he definitely not Godfather but as good as any on long range forecasting. If you don't like him don't read him. Some of us enjoy his comments. No he is not perfect but none of us are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When I see flakes falling, I'll believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would feel much better about this if it wasn't 54 degrees out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It looks to me like the NAM gives far Northwest GA and SW NC a decent snow tomorrow morning.... lol don't look now at the nam. well here we are about what, 24 hours out, and what a difference. gsp just updated - nothing here. then i saw that post. i gotta say that does seem to show at least some moisture in here and that magical blue line is close. . .all indications are for nothing here but then how do you explain what those maps are showing in n ga to ne ga and the extreme sw nc/upstate? lol we just cant seem to win. nothing is shown for your area most of the week, a day before nothing, then this i give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Snow sounding at KFQD at 33 on this run. It anything makes it down Be it light. The 18Z NAM has of WNC in the .01 - .10 range.at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 once again though, the 850's warm between 0Z and 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Afreakingmen... Here is the link for the 30 NAM slim. Link due to the fine setting! http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_030l.gif 850s are much colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 More into SWNC Also NC-cen getting in on it at 30 LOL! Come on NAM ... that would indicate a nice little snow for the CLT area if it were to varify...... I'm glad it's friday and I can go drink my self silly tonight and then when I sobber up tomorrow what will happens happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sure are! -3.8 for the 850 level on my sounding.. 850s are much colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Now it shows this solution since I'm in Columbia...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Plenty cold for me, and it does bring a little precip up this far. Who knows ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL! Come on NAM ... that would indicate a nice little snow for the CLT area if it were to varify...... I'm glad it's friday and I can go drink my self silly tonight and then when I sobber up tomorrow what will happens happens lol...ditto! esp after i looked at my soundings under the precip. close but not really quite there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Now it shows this solution since I'm in Columbia...lol. Yeah definitely no go at all here. The moisture is pretty much long gone before the 850 is cold enough. Another case of cold air chasing the moisture this far South in CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Geez, It looks like the big winners this run would be a very thin stripe from about foothills house up to Raleigh, NC... If this actually verified the heart of the stripe of snow would probably add up to 3 to 5 inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 and the beat goes on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 once again though, the 850's warm between 0Z and 6Z I would not worry about that to much, the 30hr panel is the one to be concerned with and shows the triangle <0C at 850, and this is the sim at 30hrs. This would be an isothermal event wile the with heavier returns, and the mid-levels warm once it shuts off. The 36 hr sim shows that it is over for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Geez, It looks like the big winners this run would be a very thin stripe from about foothills house up to Raleigh, NC... If this actually verified the heart of the stripe of snow would probably add up to 3 to 5 inches..... The NAM's snowfall output lays down 1-2 inches although it sometimes under does precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Crap!!!! I had given up hope! I have NEVER seen this much variability from one storm on the models. There seems to be no trends. I'm used to the shifts to th north and losing out on a storm. This one is just flipping and flopping and taking our hearts along for the ride!!! Sorry for the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yes. Looks like .1 or trace amounts to 2.5" or so... The NAM's snowfall output lays down 1-2 inches although it sometimes under does precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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