snowdevil Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 410 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2010 BY TONIGHT...A 1012MB LOW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE LA COAST HEADING TOWARD NRN FL. SPC AND LOCAL WRFS THAT VERIFIED NICELY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BOTH SHOWING PLENTY OF PATCHY RAIN/SHRA BREAKING OUT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA. BETTER UVV/NET ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND NEAR 50 TOTALS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DOWNPOURS UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. THE RAINS THEN EXPAND NWD THROUGH CENTRAL MS BY MID/ LATE EVENING WITH AT LEAST FLURRIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DELTA AND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE AGAIN WITH THE WETTER NAM POPS ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS PROBABLY ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS...ESPECIALLY NEAR A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AT 850-700MB ALONG I-20 THAT PROVIDES A LITTLE BETTER CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30-33F RANGE AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW TO LIGHT GRASSY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH IN A BAND FROM AROUND KOSCIUSKO/ CARTHAGE NEWD BUT WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION FOR NOW. A NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR. The new discussion still mentions wintry precip but says it will have to examined later. Hmm....interesting! Up to an inch of snow in central MS. Gives up hope in Al and Ga at least Sadly I think things will be a bit too warm but I think there is the potential for a narrow strip of snow somewhere in al/ga. Right on the northern sheild of the precip where it's just cold enough for sleet or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro didn't even flip for us. Line up on the cliff take a step forward and hope for a miracle tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro didn't even flip for us. Line up on the cliff take a step forward and hope for a miracle tomorrow. Thanks Burger! Did it have any qpf across NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro didn't even flip for us. Line up on the cliff take a step forward and hope for a miracle tomorrow. 12z high res WRF's actually look a little better through 33hrs... NMM tries to pop a weak 850 near CLT, with some SN ARW is the only model on the planet currently giving me a glimmer of hope for a 0C 850 temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro didn't even flip for us. Line up on the cliff take a step forward and hope for a miracle tomorrow. Check the clipper placement on Tuesday and also late next week. That Low rolling into California has to end up sowewhere down stream (East Coast). Hopefully It'll take a southern route. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Check the clipper placement on Tuesday and also late next week. That Low rolling into California has to end up sowewhere down stream (East Coast). Hopefully It'll take a southern route. Thanks Heard the flow was from the OH Valley to NC in the NE thread regarding the clipper... Sounds par for the corse this season, another clipper type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Check the clipper placement on Tuesday and also late next week. That Low rolling into California has to end up sowewhere down stream (East Coast). Hopefully It'll take a southern route. Thanks Just watched JB big dog, The clipper Tuesday showed snow in the OHIO valley to the east coast (not SE) way north of us. And Christmas day Rain here snow north of us. lol AND he is confident that the big warm up is a coming for the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z high res WRF's actually look a little better through 33hrs... NMM tries to pop a weak 850 near CLT, with some SN ARW is the only model on the planet currently giving me a glimmer of hope for a 0C 850 temp i will take this one, please. the only thing showing anything near ne ga its really nice today - 51 and feels 'warm' as cold as its been. ended up getting to 33.4 last night, which surprised me since it was windy and 53 when i went to bed (initially i thought this might be for next week, but am thinking its for this weekend. its so far removed from anything else i have seen. but i will admit i have been busy and n ga isnt in line for this one so i havent been watching the model runs quite as closely) it would be nice for parts of nc to get some snow, since its a weekend i could take a road trip up there (but not charlotte, so it needs to move to the west lol) Just watched JB big dog, The clipper Tuesday showed snow in the OHIO valley to the east coast (not SE) way north of us. And Christmas day Rain here snow north of us. lol AND he is confident that the big warm up is a coming for the se. unfortunately, i would be surprised if we didnt warm up. this dec has been very very cold and it cant last forever, sadly. i just hope if/when it warms up, its short lived and we get another cold shot in jan/feb when it will do us some good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just watched JB big dog, The clipper Tuesday showed snow in the OHIO valley to the east coast (not SE) way north of us. And Christmas day Rain here snow north of us. lol AND he is confident that the big warm up is a coming for the se. He also had us having a White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hoping the WRF scores a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 He also had us having a White Christmas. Yea, I know. But I bet he's right on the snow north of us tuesday and rain christmas which he showed the model showing it, It look like cold chasing moisture Christmas. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z high res WRF's actually look a little better through 33hrs... NMM tries to pop a weak 850 near CLT, with some SN ARW is the only model on the planet currently giving me a glimmer of hope for a 0C 850 temp Yea not totally discounting our chances and the hi res WRF seems to have a good track record, but jeez wish we could catch a break. BTW yea Euro had some moisture from the clipper but it was all on the southern edge of the system, light and the temps are only close in the mountains and far north North Carolina. Considering how everything has moved south in this flow (if in fact this system heads OTS) it might be something to seriously watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What does the Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 36 HIRESW NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z ECMWF day 4, and our clipper type... Looks cold enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Hi-Res NMM is just a 4-km version of the NAM so its going to be similar in the overall placement of precipitation generally. The WRF-ARW is a completely different core and that seems to be keeping everything further to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yea, I know. But I bet he's right on the snow north of us tuesday and rain christmas which he showed the model showing it, It look like cold chasing moisture Christmas. lol You're right. He seems to be more accurate when he is conservative for our area. (but I guess there is a good reason for that ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't wait to get **** on by anothe clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 What does the Euro show? 33 and -RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yea, I know. But I bet he's right on the snow north of us tuesday and rain christmas which he showed the model showing it, It look like cold chasing moisture Christmas. lol JB Is using the 12z gfs probably on the clipper, cause its futher north and hits the MA/Cities. Also I bet our rain Christmas is snow in the same areas. Still though I really need a clipper to track across N GA/SC, so I'll be just to the north of it and not have to worry about any WAA. I also think we are gonna stay with a negative NAO all winter. If it relaxes, I would bet its very short lived. A Normal winter from here on out in addition to the December we've been having could have been sold as the bargain of the year back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't wait to get **** on by anothe clipper. Hahaha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB Is using the 12z gfs probably on the clipper, cause its futher north and hits the MA/Cities. Also I bet our rain Christmas is snow in the same areas. Still though I really need a clipper to track across N GA/SC, so I'll be just to the north of it and not have to worry about any WAA. I also think we are gonna stay with a negative NAO all winter. If it relaxes, I would bet its very short lived. A Normal winter from here on out in addition to the December we've been having could have been sold as the bargain of the year back in November. Yes he was showing the GFS for the clipper. The Christmas storm he was useing the accu-model i think he said. I just looked at the GFS it don't show any moisture makeing it into NC for Tuesday best I could tell ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JB Is using the 12z gfs probably on the clipper, cause its futher north and hits the MA/Cities. Also I bet our rain Christmas is snow in the same areas. Still though I really need a clipper to track across N GA/SC, so I'll be just to the north of it and not have to worry about any WAA. I also think we are gonna stay with a negative NAO all winter. If it relaxes, I would bet its very short lived. A Normal winter from here on out in addition to the December we've been having could have been sold as the bargain of the year back in November. I agree 100%. Just about every winter forecast I saw had a quite warm Jan/Feb, and some even had above normal for Dec. I also think the NAO is going to predominately remain negative this Winter. I'm less optimistic about the moisture than I am about temps., even though I do think we warm up at some point, for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do we continualy quote JB? Do some of you think of him as the Godfather? He completely whiffed last December... why would this one be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do we continualy quote JB? Do some of you think of him as the Godfather? He completely whiffed last December... why would this one be any different? Some on here is interested in what He has to say, That's why I quote Him sometimes ! If you don't like Him or what He has to say just skip over the posts about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do we continualy quote JB? Do some of you think of him as the Godfather? He completely whiffed last December... why would this one be any different? He did? How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It is cool. Frosty is our hook up on the JB. I love to hear what anyone has to say. Why do we continualy quote JB? Do some of you think of him as the Godfather? He completely whiffed last December... why would this one be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Thanks! The Hi-Res NMM is just a 4-km version of the NAM so its going to be similar in the overall placement of precipitation generally. The WRF-ARW is a completely different core and that seems to be keeping everything further to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Some clues as to RAH thinking on the 12:20 aviation update: LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY... A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... MAINLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY (MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO). IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT RDU/RWI/FAY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NW MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY... THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. -GIH-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Some clues as to RAH thinking on the 12:20 aviation update: LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY... A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... MAINLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY (MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO). IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT RDU/RWI/FAY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NW MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY... THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. -GIH-- End Changed Discussion -- Sounds like RDU is going to get some snow, even if it is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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