Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM looks like it's further west but then it heads OTS too fast. It does drop some light snow in the north GA mtns, and southwest NC. I don't know how cause the surface reflection looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I for one will be glad when this storm is gone off the charts. I know there's no hope for back here where i live, Yet it's in my blood I just keep coming back to see if there is a shift west ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like any snow is going to be on the extreme northwest side of the moisture shield. I still don't like my chances here to CLT due to the warm boundary, light precip rates and time of day..but once east of CLT after dark toward Monroe to Fay and RDU I could see some large flakes mixing in or changing over briefly. Pretty much the only hope now is that the models are too weak and too far south with precip. Time will tell. It may come down to a nowcast tomorrow, but I don' think anyone gets anything more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like any snow is going to be on the extreme northwest side of the moisture shield. I still don't like my chances here to CLT due to the warm boundary, light precip rates and time of day..but once east of CLT after dark toward Monroe to Fay and RDU I could see some large flakes mixing in or changing over briefly. Pretty much the only hope now is that the models are too weak and too far south with precip. Time will tell. It may come down to a nowcast tomorrow, but I don' think anyone gets anything more than an inch. Snowball fight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 These runs are a disaster, NAM has been almost consistent but clearly as was pointed out last night the models are having problems because of "so many moving parts". There is as good a chance of nothing as there is of 4 inches . This is going to come right down to the wire and I have a feeling it's going to be nothing or a lot. If I were a weather man I would be saying FML right now looking at this thing. I agree...My brother and friends keep calling asking what is it going to do. I just told my brother I don't have a clue at this point. We have the 12z euro yesterday showing 8" for us then the 0z euro comes out w/ a big fat 0". GFS has been all over the place. At this point I just don't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like any snow is going to be on the extreme northwest side of the moisture shield. I still don't like my chances here to CLT due to the warm boundary, light precip rates and time of day..but once east of CLT after dark toward Monroe to Fay and RDU I could see some large flakes mixing in or changing over briefly. Pretty much the only hope now is that the models are too weak and too far south with precip. Time will tell. It may come down to a nowcast tomorrow, but I don' think anyone gets anything more than an inch. Under an inch? For us that's a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think until it starts to unfold... very few of us are going to have a clue, much less the models! But strange things have happened in the south in the winter so I'm not discounting anything yet. Still have a stream of moisture over south Georgia across Macon and toward SC but it's nice and clear without a cloud in sight here. http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_georgia_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree...My brother and friends keep calling asking what is it going to do. I just told my brother I don't have a clue at this point. We have the 12z euro yesterday showing 8" for us then the 0z euro comes out w/ a big fat 0". GFS has been all over the place. At this point I just don't have a clue. Yea I'm using some PTO today and I told them at work I would send out an email as to what I thought would happen. I'm going to have to send this graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 These runs are a disaster, NAM has been almost consistent but clearly as was pointed out last night the models are having problems because of "so many moving parts". There is as good a chance of nothing as there is of 4 inches . This is going to come right down to the wire and I have a feeling it's going to be nothing or a lot. If I were a weather man I would be saying FML right now looking at this thing. I would hate to have that job right now for this storm.Yesterday when I saw a big fat ? on the forcast I busted out laughing!I don't think I have ever seen that before...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree...My brother and friends keep calling asking what is it going to do. I just told my brother I don't have a clue at this point. We have the 12z euro yesterday showing 8" for us then the 0z euro comes out w/ a big fat 0". GFS has been all over the place. At this point I just don't have a clue. Yeah, looks like the models are all over the place with reagrds to Saturday. I saw Matthew East and Allan Huffman both said the Triangle should get some snow, though, so at least we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would hate to have that job right now for this storm.Yesterday when I saw a big fat ? on the forcast I busted out laughing!I don't think I have ever seen that before...lol Ha, yea but they must be having fun at our weenie expense watching us live and die with every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This system is turning out to be a complete time-waster; and I'm afraid most this winter will be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yea I'm using some PTO today and I told them at work I would send out an email as to what I thought would happen. I'm going to have to send this graphic: ....I think I'm going to have to use your approach today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This system is turning out to be a complete time-waster; and I'm afraid most this winter will be too. How so? We've already had two events here and it's just December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Under an inch? For us that's a win probably. these systems are sneaky, I've seen models blow their north shield of precip, still worried about the temps though, they're usually right at this hour, and we're on the edge literally. There's just too much against it, but then again, our best snows here have snuck up on us and weren't forecast, for the most part. This kind of reminds me of the November 2000 surprise snow setup a little bit. I doubt the precip looks this good tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yea I'm using some PTO today and I told them at work I would send out an email as to what I thought would happen. I'm going to have to send this graphic: LOL that about sums it up Burger..... I for one am not even looking at the models anymore for tomorrow's "event." Figure looking at current conditions and where the s/w are moving around is better than assuming the models will all of a sudden have a light builb go off. I am liking how the s/w coming across the Texas panhandle and Okl is looking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 probably. these systems are sneaky, I've seen models blow their north shield of precip, still worried about the temps though, they're usually right at this hour, and we're on the edge literally. There's just too much against it, but then again, our best snows here have snuck up on us and weren't forecast, for the most part. This kind of reminds me of the November 2000 surprise snow setup a little bit. I doubt the precip looks this good tomorrow though. Watch the GFS come north now I have noticed the models trending warmer. More WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This system is turning out to be a complete time-waster; and I'm afraid most this winter will be too. Yea, you're probably right but this hobby is like crack. We'll all be lining up for this same abuse when the next storm rolls around. For example, at 1pm most people are thinking about what a good lunch they had or what's for supper, not us! I'm thinking I've got to eat real fast so I'll be ready for the 12z euro run. It's what we do during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not what I wanted to see when I got on this morning. Now I don't want to go to Charlotte to see the in laws. $#(% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This system is turning out to be a complete time-waster; and I'm afraid most this winter will be too. Most snow tracking is going to be a waste of time in ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Several feet of snow are on tap for the mountains of California over the next few days. Here's a discussion, and the map AS FOR THE SIERRA...THEY WILL SEE INCREASED WINDS AS WELL WITH RIDGES GUSTING OVER 100 MPH. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND A BIT EAST OF THE CREST...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 4-4500 FEET NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO 5500 FEET RENO-TAHOE AND 6500 FEET IN MONO-MINERAL BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL CHANGE MOST PRECIP BACK TO SNOW IN THE SIERRA BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT WAVES. WALLMANN EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN FORCING WHICH WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE SIERRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INLAND AND A 160 KT UPPER JET MAX MOVE OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) OVER THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY...LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CREST...AND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE/GERLACH LINE. SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 5500 FEET NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO 6500 FEET RENO-TAHOE TO 7500 FEET MONO-MINERAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CRASHING DOWN TO MANY VALLEY FLOORS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD ZONES 5/70 TO THAT WARNING AS WELL AS HEAVY SNOW IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH. WITH SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ENOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR RENO-CC AS WELL. GIVEN THE QPF AMOUNTS MENTIONED EARLIER...AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA ABOVE LAKE LEVEL ON SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CREST AND IN MONO COUNTY. AMOUNTS AT LAKE LEVEL ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE JUST ABOVE LAKE LEVEL FOR PART OF THE DAY. SCV SATURDAY NIGHT BREEZY. SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS 23 TO 28. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH DECREASING TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 110 MPH DECREASING TO 95 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. I'd love to see snow like this, where its just barely cold enough, and to get up to 2 feet, with winds over 100 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Speaking of MTNS . Gonna be a great Holiday Ski Season http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_extremeSugar.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, this weekend is done -- time to move right past the clipper (how many times out of a 100 do clippers bring us snow? Answer: 1/2) to Christmas. It's heartening to see both the 6z GFS and Euro having a low moving through around Christmas. Right now they are both too warm for snow, but certainly within the margin of error (esp. given this wacky blocking pattern). Got to have a white Christmas one of these days, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I miss the NGM model. We'd have a pretty good snowstorm on our hands if we still had that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have a feeling this one is going to be painful to watch here in the Coastal Plain... Would much rather be along 95, but even there 850's still struggle to get close to 0C, and QPF decreases the further inland you go, so this is shaping up to be a nice little SN-storm 14k ft up, but at the surface, plain jane rain. For those of us from around Raleigh to Fayetteville, and points east, we want this to trend a little stronger, in order to get more cold air in. But that seems like a long shot as everything I am seeing this am, points to a predominately rn event. 6z GFS for PGV and for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Nam did seems to take a step in the direction of the wrf to me. I know its not much but the New Nam did seem to try to wrap some moisture towards the Western Carolinas but not as much as the wrf model did. Who knows what will happen but at this point a good solid inch would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I miss the NGM model. We'd have a pretty good snowstorm on our hands if we still had that model. You almost knew it was a lock for a big storm when the NGM was wet. That used to be my sigh of relief during the anxiety of reeling one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS about like the nam. For CLT to my area, our window of opportunity is around 2 pm to 8 pm...bu the temps probably won't support snow to the surface for several reasons. Bad time of day, barely cold enough, unless rates really increase, so far it looks like they won't since we're on the nw shield. I still think points east and northeast of CLT have the best shot at seeing some flakes in the air after 5 pm, better chance after dark, but wouldn't last long. Next. and we may get zero precip at all. I can't even get a good rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have a feeling this one is going to be painful to watch here in the Coastal Plain... Would much rather be along 95, but even there 850's still struggle to get close to 0C, and QPF decreases the further inland you go, so this is shaping up to be a nice little SN-storm 14k ft up, but at the surface, plain jane rain. For those of us from around Raleigh to Fayetteville, and points east, we want this to trend a little stronger, in order to get more cold air in. But that seems like a long shot as everything I am seeing this am, points to a predominately rn event. The 12z gfs looks warm also. We'll have to see if its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z RGEM still keeps the triangle in the mix for a couple hours of SN, not much, maybe a token inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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