strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes it is. Alot healthier!! LIke Brandon has stated the NAM at this time frame is like "throwing paint on a wall" Looks better then the 06Z nam at 84.. Ha haha Im doing this for the NAM at 84. damn.... 12z NAM slower with the weekend system and looking healthier than 6z.....just first glance before walking out of the office though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes it is. Alot healthier!! LIke Brandon has stated the NAM at this time frame is like "throwing paint on a wall" Looks better then the 06Z nam at 84.. Ha haha Im doing this for the NAM at 84. damn.... With this H7 RH envelope, someone would get thumped south of VA, but one has to wonder if the players are even in the NAM's "box" atm, probably not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Really have to wait for some model consensus before getting too excited. Unfortunately, this may not happen until Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 So true. Will continue to tear apart the modeling until the last minuet.. With this H7 RH envelope, someone would get thumped south of VA, but one has to wonder if the players are even in the NAM's "box" atm, probably not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Shouldn't we be watching on Friday to see what this current system does? My understanding was we want it to eject and not stick around GA and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS is to warm and looks like the PV is to far east. Gets border line for CLT-RDU region around 84-90 but it's the usual cold chasing moisture. Only folks who look to see anything verbatim this run are the mountains and a few I-40 folks on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 bummer...looks like the GFS says mostly nada...precip stays mostly south and east of the "cold air." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Oh well. Maybe it's waiting for Christmas for another good snow. I'd love to have one like we did with the last one a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS is to warm and looks like the PV is to far east. Gets border line for CLT-RDU region around 84-90 but it's the usual cold chasing moisture. Only folks who look to see anything verbatim this run are the mountains and a few I-40 folks on the west side. It's only cold enough in the Mtns and no precip falls over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 This run looks very similar to the 0z Canadian, 850 line straddles the back edge of the QPF, setting the stage for a mostly RN event, which given the lack of a fresh source of cold air, unfortunately makes sense. SE VA gets a good hit though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the current system needs to move on out before we see what it is we will be dealing with come Saturday..... at least I can tell myself this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think part of the reason the gfs is warmer this run is because it's faster than the 6z gfs run. I just took a quick peak at it and it appears to be 6hrs or so faster. It also appears to be a little weaker off the coast than the 6z. I believe 6z had it at 1004 and it's 1008 on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's still a close call for the RDU area. The precip really scoots out fast after this frame, although there might be some leftovers...but per the model the leftover qpf is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And it gives the Mid Atlantic and NE snow. :axe: :axe: :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the current system needs to move on out before we see what it is we will be dealing with come Saturday..... at least I can tell myself this.. Hahahaha agreed. On to the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think part of the reason the gfs is warmer this run is because it's faster than the 6z gfs run. I just took a quick peak at it and it appears to be 6hrs or so faster. It also appears to be a little weaker off the coast than the 6z. I believe 6z had it at 1004 and it's 1008 on the 12z. I noticed that it is faster too. Faster than the Nam by 6 hours. I wonder if the GFS was slower if it would come back west more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And it gives the Mid Atlantic and NE snow. :axe: :axe: :axe: :axe: At least the only state that really gets hammered is Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And it gives the Mid Atlantic and NE snow. :axe: :axe: :axe: :axe: Ji getting snow is the worst news of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I noticed that it is faster too. Faster than the Nam by 6 hours. I wonder if the GFS was slower if it would come back west more? I'm not sure if it would help it come back west more but I know it would help w/ temps. The timing of the 6z gfs was pefect because the heavier precip was at night. Since my area is so close on temps that could make a huge difference. It's going to be a close call and like many have said it usually doesn't work out when we have the cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GGEM at hr84: http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Good luck to you guys in N.C. but for those of us in GA it's, "Take a seat in the bleachers" I hope you get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hard to say for sure off of the maps, BUT it looks like the GGEM has a solid comma head type precip event on the backside overnight Saturday for a good portion of the central/eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like that would be a good hit for RDU. I might be a bit too far west here to get much. That even looks good for Eyewall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z Canadian is the perfect sfc low track for snow in the GVL to CLT corridor. Both the NAM and Canadian have a much better look with the piece of energy that comes into the California / Oregon border and dives SE into the trough. GFS is weaker, faster, and not as far south with this piece of energy - all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 83rd hour. CMC 12z Canadian is the perfect sfc low track for snow in the GVL to CLT corridor. Both the NAM and Canadian have a much better look with the piece of energy that comes into the California / Oregon border and dives SE into the trough. GFS is weaker, faster, and not as far south with this piece of energy - all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like that would be a good hit for RDU. I might be a bit too far west here to get much. That even looks good for Eyewall! Hey guys, check this out... There should be a rule in the main-side model thread about using the word Mid-Atlantic, or MA for short. It is in every other post, and from folks who, you guessed it, live in the MA. "Looks good for the MA" "All we need is another 50 mile shift and the MA is in play" "Brings 3-6" to the northern MA this run" etc... That thread goes from NAM initialization to MA weenie-fest in no time flat, forcing a mental cut and paste just to gain useful information. Some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Good luck to you guys in N.C. but for those of us in GA it's, "Take a seat in the bleachers" I hope you get dumped on. maybe not. Its close enough for anywhere in northern Ga to be on guard. If we get the 850 low to develop in time and track along a Macon to CAE to eastern NC track, I could see the northern parts being in a deformation band, since you'd be close to the cold sector and with excellent lift. The lack of a PNA ridge out west and enough cold air during the heart of the event is still the problem, but its close enough that those factors may develop in our favor just a little bit. Until the models start concentrating further east or south, I wouldn't write it off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There should be a rule in the main-side model thread about using the word Mid-Atlantic, or MA for short. It is in every other post, and from folks who, you guessed it, live in the MA. "Looks good for the MA" "All we need is another 50 mile shift and the MA is in play" "Brings 3-6" to the northern MA this run" etc... That thread goes from NAM initialization to MA weenie-fest in no time flat, forcing a mental cut and paste just to gain useful information. Some things never change. This is why we have the southeast sub-forum which is better than any other sub-forum on AmericanWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 seems like the Euro is running slow. Still not initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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