Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[ncjoaquin]

Anybody see the hi-res WRF

Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.

Link is time-sensitive...

That would even make my day more interesting.

[FallsLake]

Anybody see the hi-res WRF

Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.

Link is time-sensitive...

Man that would be great. Looks to give some of our western folks 1" - 2" inches and then a decent storm back to the eastern piedmont. 850 temps really drop as the storm approches. I wish it went one more frame.

Who knows it could be right

[Poimen]

Anybody see the hi-res WRF

Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.

Link is time-sensitive...

Thanks for posting.

[FoothillsNC]

When you say cold March you mean relative to normal right ? I doubt there's ever been a year where March as a whole was colder than January, especially since the last half of March can be very warm.

Yes, I meant relative to normal. But March 1960 was the coldest Winter month I think in that one crazy pattern from Feb-Mar 1960 for the Southeast. Looks like this December is going to approach those anamolies as well for Va, NC and Ky I think, maybe some other states as well.

[NegativeTilt]

One of these shorter range models was right on the money during last year's events. Can someone refresh my memory on which model it was? RUC, WRF, SREF?

Think it was the RUC

[strongwxnc]

4pm Sat on the HI-RES WRF

[georgiawx11]

Yes, I meant relative to normal. But March 1960 was the coldest Winter month I think in that one crazy pattern from Feb-Mar 1960 for the Southeast. Looks like this December is going to approach those anamolies as well for Va, NC and Ky I think, maybe some other states as well.

Is it safe to say that December will end up being the coldest winter month in most of the southeast this winter ?

[HKY_WX]

Anybody see the hi-res WRF

Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.

Link is time-sensitive...

I find it interesting as well. It's about the only reason I haven't given up hope completely for areas west of GSO. If you look at that model at hours 24-36, you can see the semi-stationary front and baroclinic zone over SE GA. I think if this system were to amplify, that area would be where the SLP likely tracks, not so far offshore like the models are suggesting. You factor in DEC climo, SST's, the fact there isn't a huge cold air source, and there is still something to keep an eye on. You can also see this front on the current surface map below.

[NegativeTilt]

Is it safe to say that December will end up being the coldest winter month in most of the southeast this winter ?

Def a top 10

[packfan98]

Here is the SREF from earlier. I don't remember seeing it posted in the overnight disco. It goes right up the East Coast later as well.

[FoothillsNC]

Anybody see the hi-res WRF

Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.

Link is time-sensitive...

that model was also the first to literally show the pre-frontal snow in the southern Apps/extreme N. Ga on the Friday night event a week ago, from about 36 hours out is when it changed if I recall. It really did well on that.

Just looking at the water vapor its such a good setup, I'd hate to waste missing a decent wave to the south. This time last year we would be sitting pretty, atleast the NC mountains would be, with enough cold. Our only fear would be losing the cold air and getting into the warm nose, which happened about every time here. Would be nice to get that north trend that worked out in every event last season. However, this year we are indeed missing systems to the south. Again, we walk such a tight rope in southern NC...if it comes north, we're going to have temperature issues. If its mostly south, we're colder, but drier.

[FoothillsNC]

Is it safe to say that December will end up being the coldest winter month in most of the southeast this winter ?

almost assured. I'd be extremely surprised to see Jan, Feb or March be anywhere near this cold in actual temps. But if the blocking were not to break down for long, depending on when the next cold event starts, we could get a long cold period again, but this one has been extreme, and would have been cold even for January I think.

[strongwxnc]

Not use to viewing this model. Anything to look for as we progress thorough today?

that model was also the first to literally show the pre-frontal snow in the southern Apps/extreme N. Ga on the Friday night event a week ago, from about 36 hours out is when it changed if I recall. It really did well on that.

Just looking at the water vapor its such a good setup, I'd hate to waste missing a decent wave to the south. This time last year we would be sitting pretty, atleast the NC mountains would be, with enough cold. Our only fear would be losing the cold air and getting into the warm nose, which happened about every time here. Would be nice to get that north trend that worked out in every event last season. However, this year we are indeed missing systems to the south. Again, we walk such a tight rope in southern NC...if it comes north, we're going to have temperature issues. If its mostly south, we're colder, but drier.

[packfan98]

that model was also the first to literally show the pre-frontal snow in the southern Apps/extreme N. Ga on the Friday night event a week ago, from about 36 hours out is when it changed if I recall. It really did well on that.

Just looking at the water vapor its such a good setup, I'd hate to waste missing a decent wave to the south. This time last year we would be sitting pretty, atleast the NC mountains would be, with enough cold. Our only fear would be losing the cold air and getting into the warm nose, which happened about every time here. Would be nice to get that north trend that worked out in every event last season. However, this year we are indeed missing systems to the south. Again, we walk such a tight rope in southern NC...if it comes north, we're going to have temperature issues. If its mostly south, we're colder, but drier.

But isn't this the first southern system we have seen this winter season? I know they tweaked the GFS model, but is their a reason we shouldn't expect a north/west track like we saw last year? My gut feeling is that we will still see a small shift in that direction. I also remember systems that didn't really shift much for us but shifted at the very end just to put DC to BOSTON it the jackpot.

[georgiawx11]

I wonder how the cold this December compares to the cold last January ?

[msuwx]

I find it interesting as well. It's about the only reason I haven't given up hope completely for areas west of GSO. If you look at that model at hours 24-36, you can see the semi-stationary front and baroclinic zone over SE GA. I think if this system were to amplify, that area would be where the SLP likely tracks, not so far offshore like the models are suggesting. You factor in DEC climo, SST's, the fact there isn't a huge cold air source, and there is still something to keep an eye on. You can also see this front on the current surface map below.

Yeah, there is currently a 20 degree temp gradient between CLT and CAE. ILM in the 50s also this AM. That zone will be interesting to watch.

that model was also the first to literally show the pre-frontal snow in the southern Apps/extreme N. Ga on the Friday night event a week ago, from about 36 hours out is when it changed if I recall. It really did well on that.

Just looking at the water vapor its such a good setup, I'd hate to waste missing a decent wave to the south. This time last year we would be sitting pretty, atleast the NC mountains would be, with enough cold. Our only fear would be losing the cold air and getting into the warm nose, which happened about every time here. Would be nice to get that north trend that worked out in every event last season. However, this year we are indeed missing systems to the south. Again, we walk such a tight rope in southern NC...if it comes north, we're going to have temperature issues. If its mostly south, we're colder, but drier.

Yeah, I think it bears watching, and the precip with the upper disturbance is certainly impressive in TX/OK this AM. Would be nice to cash in on this one as well.....catching these Miller A's are like trying to catch pixie dust from a unicorn it seems recently.

[HKY_WX]

i think ifyou want the pattern to improve, you should look to the pacfic. in allan's snow research, the PNA is almost if not more important than the NAO when it comes to an actual major snowstorm. Sure, the NAO will keep the pattern colder and stable, but it's not as conducive to a storm as a huge PNA ridge.with the la-nina breaking down, i think february could be a good month.

[BIG FROSTY]

FWIW -- JB is sticking to nhis guns about close to the coast track, Now I know he is just a DC northward guy But I'm talking about his thinking on track of slp. Also He talks about how the euro has lost it's touch in the eastern us.

MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST... STILL NO CHANGE HERE ON OVERALL IDEA.

The Euros flip was alarming., After 2 monster runs, its much flatter again. This is no longer the guru it used to be and if the GFS is catching it, its because of its problems, not the GFS. There used to be a day when 2 runs in a row of the euro agreeing with me, is something I would take to the bank. Since it hardly is ever the same run to run any more over the eastern US, that is shot to the wind. The only model that has continued a consistent "trend" is the JMA, again something I wish I could show you but cant here. It started way out and is pulling this back with each run..

[Cold Rain]

i think ifyou want the pattern to improve, you should look to the pacfic. in allan's snow research, the PNA is almost if not more important than the NAO when it comes to an actual major snowstorm. Sure, the NAO will keep the pattern colder and stable, but it's not as conducive to a storm as a huge PNA ridge.with the la-nina breaking down, i think february could be a good month.

That piece of crap trough/vortex off the Pac NW / GOA is going to have to go away if we're going to get a good PNA ridge, which, like you said, is very important to major winter events around here. It just stays there through the entire 240 hrs, every single model cycle. I guess that's Nina doing its dirty work.

[HKY_WX]

That piece of crap trough/vortex off the Pac NW / GOA is going to have to go away if we're going to get a good PNA ridge, which, like you said, is very important to major winter events around here. It just stays there through the entire 240 hrs, every single model cycle. I guess that's Nina doing its dirty work.

Yep, the PDO is negative which is normal in a moderate nina. I think with the nina breaking down things could improve over the pacific as we head later in winter. The key will be keeping the NAO negative and then seeing the pacific improve enough to have periods of a western north america ridge. That gives us the opportunity of a big dog. Right now we skirting by with clippers and weak systems from the pacific. We also have no stj with the nina.

[DaculaWeather]

I wonder how the cold this December compares to the cold last January ?

For me, my mean last January was 36.5. So far for December it's been 33.5 http://www.daculawea...dacula_noaa.php

Here's a pretty cool look at my temps over the course of a year.

http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_tempdetails.php

[msuwx]

I have to agree with Bastardi that the Euro is not the supreme ruler in the east that is used to be. Lots of run to run variability, and like we discussed in another thread, I have seen the GFS outperform it recently on several occasions.

FWIW -- JB is sticking to nhis guns about close to the coast track, Now I know he is just a DC northward guy But I'm talking about his thinking on track of slp. Also He talks about how the euro has lost it's touch in the eastern us.

MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST... STILL NO CHANGE HERE ON OVERALL IDEA.

The Euros flip was alarming., After 2 monster runs, its much flatter again. This is no longer the guru it used to be and if the GFS is catching it, its because of its problems, not the GFS. There used to be a day when 2 runs in a row of the euro agreeing with me, is something I would take to the bank. Since it hardly is ever the same run to run any more over the eastern US, that is shot to the wind. The only model that has continued a consistent "trend" is the JMA, again something I wish I could show you but cant here. It started way out and is pulling this back with each run..

[HKY_WX]

there's some pretty interesting changes on the nam through 12 hours. don't know if it will change anything though.

[Cold Rain]

Yep, the PDO is negative which is normal in a moderate nina. I think with the nina breaking down things could improve over the pacific as we head later in winter. The key will be keeping the NAO negative and then seeing the pacific improve enough to have periods of a western north america ridge. That gives us the opportunity of a big dog. Right now we skirting by with clippers and weak systems from the pacific. We also have no stj with the nina.

I have to say that I actually feel pretty good about the - NAO and it's persistence. I expect we'll see it break down at some point, but I feel pretty confident that it will return. Like you said, with Nina weakening, we'll see some chances later. Either way, should we get any snow this weekend, this will be the 4th frozen precip event that this area has seen thus far. I can't remember a December that offered more chances so early on. Regardless of this weekend, at least things have been very interesting and look to continue to be for a while.

[HWY316wx]

Interesting read out of the FFC... sure... it's the FFC... but it was worth a post (I guess)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

305 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS CONSISTENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT TO S GA/N FL TODAY. SLOW

MOVING AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE MOVING WITH

THE FRONT. 20-30 PERCENT POPS CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA TODAY ALONG

WITH THE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. HOLE IN THE CLOUDS OVER NE GA AND AM

VERY UNSURE IF THIS HOLE WILL INCREASE IN SIZE OR FILL IN LATER

TODAY AS SOLID CLOUDS GO WELL BACK ACROSS THE SRN STATES.

APPROACHING SHORT WAVE CAUSES RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO CENTRAL GA

FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE

N THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT

AND EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE FAR N...SOME COLDER POCKETS COULD GET

FREEZING RAIN UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES A CRAP SHOOT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY

WITH THE FRONT MOVING S AND SOME POTENTIAL BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE

AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON

SATURDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT

AND NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT.

[DaculaWeather]

At least they're forecasting a hole in the clouds, it looks like that's a safe bet.

[HWY316wx]

At least their forecasting a hole in the clouds, it looks like that's a safe bet.

I loved the hole in the clouds and the crap shoot. LOL

[burgertime]

NAM looks like it's further west but then it heads OTS too fast.

[bingcrosbyb]

12z NAM playing catchup with precip further west even into AL now. Models are just worthless. NAM/GFS/Euro/Canadian. Might as well throw darts at a board.

[burgertime]

These runs are a disaster, NAM has been almost consistent but clearly as was pointed out last night the models are having problems because of "so many moving parts". There is as good a chance of nothing as there is of 4 inches . This is going to come right down to the wire and I have a feeling it's going to be nothing or a lot. If I were a weather man I would be saying FML right now looking at this thing.