tazaroo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I hate to admit I am very frustrated with this storm and the model solutions have been awful the entire time but especially so the last day or so. Euro and GFS as well as other keep switching places each run. Way worse that I have ever seen I believe. Also, how can they get the same 0z data and with regards to the West coast southern shortwave be so different in strength from each other in as little as 12 hours. The GFS and the Nam look good at h500 at 0z when they were much worse earlier and the Euro was great at 500 at 12z and much worse now at 0z. Also, what in the world is up with that Low showing up off Florida all the sudden taking away strength and moisture from our coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A Christmas Story: "With as much dignity as he could muster, the Old Man gathered up the sad remains of his shattered Major Award. Later that night, alone in the backyard, he buried it next to the garage. Now I could never be sure, but I thought that I heard the sound of taps being played. Gently." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 maybe we can get into a pattern of app or lake cutter in jan and atleast get some rain. something other than these light rain/snow boring weather my god its bad when it gets to that point. just some heavy rain and thunderstorms would be good right now. ok rant over :lightning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 good grief the Euro has 3 lows of the East coast at 72. Are we sure some terribly bad data didn't get ingested in all the 0z models tonight. These crazy Lows showing up double or triple now of the East Cost vs just one stronger just seems wrong but all the models that I looked at 0z are showing just that and I think its killing us here because they seem to be doing this regardless of how strong the southern shortwave is since it showed up either way. Maybe its just the right data finally coming in and the models picking up on it but I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like there should be some Precip at least in Central and Eastern NC with that humidity according to those euro maps just posted even with this terrible solution, if I'm reading them right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lol, on to the 12z runs. models have been showing more than one low for a bit now. is kinda odd.. but.. by 12z should have a better grasp for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Alright. I've got an animation of snow as my share of good luck for the SE. Here's to hoping it brings good mojo in the future lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Of course after the Euro shows nothing good, the 06z NAM at hr42 is further north and west with qpf than 0z NAM at hr48. 0z HI-RES WRF looks good too: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_p03_042l.gif and http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p03_045l.gif Take a dart and throw it. I need a beer maybe two thanks to these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Of course after the Euro shows nothing good, the 06z NAM at hr42 is further north and west with qpf than 0z NAM at hr48. 0z HI-RES WRF looks good too: http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p03_042l.gif and http://www.nco.ncep....sw_p03_045l.gif Take a dart and throw it. I need a beer maybe two thanks to these model runs. I'm gonna seriously laugh if changing my profile picture did the trick. Looks like it's already taking effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the party might be over for some of you, but RAH is actually discussing the possibility of raising WSW for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the 6Z runs of the GFS/NAM spit out storm totals of between .50 to .75 qpf across central/eastern NC. Temps appear a little warm for most of that....but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The models are more mixed up than a milk shake However I'm willing to throw in the towel for this system Saturday, as Wes was saying last night, too many things have to come together at just the right time. Sure it could happen but the chances are too low for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Would any of you folks know if the SST in the gulf are above normal? I'm wondering if the water temperature is accounted for in the models, and whether above normal SST's could have an effect on the strength of a low crossing the gulf. http://www.daculawea...om/sea_temp.php It's interesting, look at the anomalies, especially around Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just Checked the 6z Nam and GFS. The very best they both have to offer is a slight chance of rain changing to snow at the very end for extreme northern coastal plain. Both look very similar and time is about up. After 12z runs today it's time to officially move on and stick a fork in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Matt's blog is up. It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I approve of his map!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good luck to the eastern sections of NC, I'm pretty sure the western section's part of this is done. Takes a miracle to get the southwest piedmont into any substantial snow. For the southern foothills/w.Piedmont west of CLT I don't see much from the pattern , its been a dry one for us, but theres atleast 2 more opportunities to snow or ice in central/northern, eastern, and far western Mountain areas, in other words the pattern looks like its just repetitive for the next 10 days, so the last place I'd expect any meaningful snow or ice chances would be the downslope areas around CLT and points west along the NC/SC border, and of course the Upstate that is extremely dry in this type of pattern. Next week, another clipper type event could affect the same areas again, the northern Mtns, areas of I-40 and points north and most of eastern NC. Then another cold outbreak. Then another clipper type system before the month is over, and another outbreak. This December has a good chance at being the coldest December on record for many in NC. So far in CLT, I think its #2, but still chance at a #1. Amazing cold pattern that likely will break down in January. Me and HKY_WX were talking in November about the AO-NAO and the chances that it alters the warm forecast for the Southeast. My winter fx was for cold Dec and March, and warm Jan/Feb which I'm still with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 good write up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well dang! It wasn't looking too good for the western folks, and now it appears the bulk of the east will be too warm. Sometimes nature is a heck of a procurer, but an iffy provider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey kids, why not take the time this weekend to do a little Christmas shopping? Perhaps spend some time with the wife or playing with the kids. lol Staring at a map of a non-event is silly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6Z GFS still has hopes for a few. Looks like areas in the NE piedmont over to the upper coastal plain could be in the small zone where 850 temps are cold enouph and there is enouph precip (.25 liquid and >). But this is very close. There will be a tight cut off area to the west (no precip) and then to the east (too warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good luck to the eastern sections of NC, I'm pretty sure the western section's part of this is done. Takes a miracle to get the southwest piedmont into any substantial snow. For the southern foothills/w.Piedmont west of CLT I don't see much from the pattern , its been a dry one for us, but theres atleast 2 more opportunities to snow or ice in central/northern, eastern, and far western Mountain areas, in other words the pattern looks like its just repetitive for the next 10 days, so the last place I'd expect any meaningful snow or ice chances would be the downslope areas around CLT and points west along the NC/SC border, and of course the Upstate that is extremely dry in this type of pattern. Next week, another clipper type event could affect the same areas again, the northern Mtns, areas of I-40 and points north and most of eastern NC. Then another cold outbreak. Then another clipper type system before the month is over, and another outbreak. This December has a good chance at being the coldest December on record for many in NC. So far in CLT, I think its #2, but still chance at a #1. Amazing cold pattern that likely will break down in January. Me and HKY_WX were talking in November about the AO-NAO and the chances that it alters the warm forecast for the Southeast. My winter fx was for cold Dec and March, and warm Jan/Feb which I'm still with. When you say cold March you mean relative to normal right ? I doubt there's ever been a year where March as a whole was colder than January, especially since the last half of March can be very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6Z NAM/GFS were very similar. Both indicate the possibility of accumulating snows from the triangle and points northeast. Of course this might change during the next model cycle. The way the models have been flip flopping lately is disconcerting to say the least. Nevertheless, it's not over yet. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When you say cold March you mean relative to normal right ? I doubt there's ever been a year where March as a whole was colder than January, especially since the last half of March can be very warm. He meant relative to normal, but March has been colder than January at least once here. See Jan-March 1960. 39.0 36.6 33.5 Edited: There are actually more than just the once. Other than March 1960, I would have thought you were correct. Hopefully, we'll get a March 1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Anybody see the hi-res WRF Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless. Link is time-sensitive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the party might be over for some of you, but RAH is actually discussing the possibility of raising WSW for parts of the area. I just read the RAH discussion. They think most models are having a hard time with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It does seem that the models are coming to a bit of a concensus. There has been a trend north and west on the last runs of the NAM and GFS and I wouldn't be surprised to see another 20-30 mile shift. It also remains to be seen exacty how much moisture we will get. This is the first winter system that is coming across the gulf and can phase which can set up deformation bands. All of the recent systems have been overperforming, even though these super clippers were totally different setups. The day before yesterday's event the NAM had me at .08 but I recieved over .20. Also, I believe the GFS has been leading the way with both precip amounts and timing. Events have been coming in faster than the models have predicted. There is still some wiggle room with this next system. I'm going to watch very carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Anybody see the hi-res WRF Check it out. Obviously an outlier, but interesting nonetheless. Link is time-sensitive... One of these shorter range models was right on the money during last year's events. Can someone refresh my memory on which model it was? RUC, WRF, SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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