BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sigh. the .01" amounts run from GSO to CLT to GSP and points west. Trace event. WE need that baby come west 100 more miles, And that is still possible. I think ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 WE need that baby come west 300 more miles, And that is still possible. I think ? lol Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Temps is what i am worried about for my area, im south of raleigh so maybe i'll end up getting a heavy band of snow if the temps are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maybe the Euro has better news. American models keep things strung out for some reason. This run I bet misses the big cities, to late with the phase. If Euro sounds the same alarm again at 0z like 12 z, then it;s consecutive runs inside 5 days. I haven't seen that rule of thumb I use beat yet. Hopefully we'll get a chance to test it this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 RDU, RIC, and DCA win with GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Appears the GFS MIGHT be suffering from convective feedback but not really sure. I can see where you are going with that, off the coast of FL at 54 hrs, and out into the Atlantic through 66 hrs, on the south side of the primary. The late phase though would fit a similar depiction... in reference to the NAM There is a pretty clear convective feedback issue here. With the consolidated vort max over the TN Valley and the vorticity generation east of HSE, latent heat release is contaminating. If you get rid of that, this is a fantastic run for everyone. I wouldn't worry about the sfc on the T+72 NAM. in reference to the GFS Defying the laws of physics once again by showing two lows. Note the streamlines around the low that is further NW. This SHOULD be the real low. This is, again, more convective feedback. Focus on the strength and position of the vort max, not the surface reflection. the latent heat release along the baroclinic zone just off the EC gives models fits, that parameterization issue needs to be fixed If the ECMWF is anything like 12Z, I could care less what everything else shows, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GSO gets .07 on the NAM and .11 on the GFS. RDU gets something like .17 on the NAM and .45 on the GFS. Both cold enough for snow, though a wet one. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 gfs is definitely better, but still significantly weaker, less phased, and strung out than the euro. going to be interesting day tomorrow. i don't see this situation producing anything historic, but someone could get a major snow if things worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The euro has increased QPF for 3 runs in a row here....be interesting to see if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 in some ways this storm reminds me of the dec 2000 bust. we're hoping a s/w from the northern stream comes in and captures a weaker southern stream wave out ahead of it. at least, from past storms, the best situation for western nc is for the storm to be mostly phased by the time it reaches the tennessee valley. most of the storms last year were pretty much that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 in some ways this storm reminds me of the dec 2000 bust. we're hoping a s/w from the northern stream comes in and captures a weaker southern stream wave out ahead of it. at least, from past storms, the best situation for western nc is for the storm to be mostly phased by the time it reaches the tennessee valley. most of the storms last year were pretty much that way. u westerners get ur share of snow let is easterners have some. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 As much as I'd like to see something come together outside of the mountains to lay down snow cover, the players just don't seem to be present. Also, serious temperature issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 As much as I'd like to see something come together outside of the mountains to lay down snow cover, the players just don't seem to be present. Also, serious temperature issues. They aren't that serious. It's not super cold to be sure, but no model really shows us wildly above freezing from the Triangle west-ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Surface temps at 42 and 48 dont look encouraging. At 42 the majority of NC is over 40, and at 48 all of NC is above freezing with exception of the higher mountains. I know I know, we cant worry about temps right now, lets just get this storm back on track . . . but its always something, and thats why we love the south. That's because it's daytime. GFS cools us off just fine and the GFS is usually warmer with the sfc temps than it ought to be in these kinds of situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/NAM/UKIE and now GGEM are all similar so Euro is all alone, looks to be a minor event for everyone in NC, at best. Euro run today had to have been a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/NAM/UKIE and now GGEM are all similar so Euro is all alone, looks to be a minor event for everyone in NC, at best. Euro run today had to have been a fluke. You can't really say that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That's because it's daytime. GFS cools us off just fine and the GFS is usually warmer with the sfc temps than it ought to be in these kinds of situations. Who is this WidreMann? I'm not used to you being so positive...J/K. In all seriousness I agree. If it pans out like the models are showing we will be fortunate to have the precip coming in at the perfect time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/NAM/UKIE and now GGEM are all similar so Euro is all alone, looks to be a minor event for everyone in NC, at best. Euro run today had to have been a fluke. I'm not an expert,but everyone else seems to be saying GFS looks great for RDU . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Would any of you folks know if the SST in the gulf are above normal? I'm wondering if the water temperature is accounted for in the models, and whether above normal SST's could have an effect on the strength of a low crossing the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is this another one of those deals where a heavy band of precip will bring temps down? Seems like if that is the case then there will be numerous isolated spots with a decent amount of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm not an expert,but everyone else seems to be saying GFS looks great for RDU . Well, I think it's spitting out .4", and it looks like all snow, so if that verified then that would be great, so yes your right for RDU, that is great. But euro showed 1" :-). For everyone west of RDU it doesn't look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/NAM/UKIE and now GGEM are all similar so Euro is all alone, looks to be a minor event for everyone in NC, at best. Euro run today had to have been a fluke. OK, NAM does not matter at this range OTS tracks are good for central and eastern NC, climo speaking 0z GFS ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Would any of you folks know if the SST in the gulf are above normal? I'm wondering if the water temperature is accounted for in the models, and whether above normal SST's could have an effect on the strength of a low crossing the gulf. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 http://www.osdpd.noa...st/anomaly.html I'll take that as a no Thanks for the help! I'm returning to the shadows now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 OK, NAM does not matter at this range OTS tracks are good for central and eastern NC, climo speaking Good point. Only concern is QPF on NAM and GGEM were light for RDU, if GFS shifted 20 miles east it would be light too. Not sure of QPF for UKIE. I think 95 in NC is a good as spot you can be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 About time to see what the euro thinks. this should give us a good idea on what to expect. anyone gonna give us the play by play?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 About time to see what the euro thinks. this should give us a good idea on what to expect. anyone gonna give us the play by play?? Not the SE crew tonight, as I do not have access to the panels and those with are absent, but will update this post as the run progresses... through hr 24 the s/w is weaker and its not as amplified At 30 it is a little weaker, but not sure if is really material enough to impact things.. through hr 36 a good bit less amplified from the nyc and philli thread regarding the 0z EC This run is comically flat at T+48 hr 60 has a sub 1008 low 150 miles east of the outer banks hr 66 has 2 1004 seperate areas of low pressure 100 miles from each other about 200-250 miles east of hse par for the course I guess, far cry from the 12z, and 850 temps will suffer accordingly low east of nc at 60 compared to off nc/sc border at 12, weaker, blaher 1004 low well east at 72 compared to what 988 right off the delmarva coast earlier little or no precip north of nc/va border Good night! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsTAUs_h_uY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not the SE crew tonight, as I do not have access to the panels and those with are absent, but will update this post as the run progresses... OK thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I knew it. The Euro was playing tricks with us all this time. No way was it going to be generous all the sudden. EURO This was everyone's reaction to the 0z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 game set match this one is over. at least west of 77 or 85 :facepalm: mass weenie suicide in all subforums maybe the everyone lining up on the train track was a good idea after all because lookouts ledge has visitors from new england and the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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