Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[NCSNOW]

Yea, that Gulf of Alaska low seems like it has been sitting there for the past month... and none of the models break it down in the long range.

Another thing I've noticed this fall/winter is the complete absence of baja cut off lows.... it seems like we had a dozen or more of those last winter. It was just a matter of if they would eject at the right time for us.

I laughed at this. Ive been looking at everyday on the gfs since November and I tell myself the same thing, that low in the GOA is like a land mass on the maps, always there. reminds me of that white car up at charlies on the web cam last year. Thing must of been broking down or the poor fella worked all the time, cause it was always there. Anyway thank goodness for the -NAO. We'd still be dry as a bone and probably blow-torching. Instead we are having the coldest december of all time with atleast small token events. We just had like the 3rd or 4th straight day here of like -16 to -17 temp departures. Everyday this month with the exception of December 1st (thanks to a overnight high) has been below normal.

[FoothillsNC]

its early on the run but the GFS looks substantially more amp. on the southern wave in New Mexico/west Texas at 15 and 18 hour. Nice southwest flow ahead of , maybe we'll luck up with a western Gulf low .

[Weather Czar]

its early on the run but the GFS looks substantially more amp. on the southern wave in New Mexico/west Texas at 15 and 18 hour. Nice southwest flow ahead of , maybe we'll luck up with a western Gulf low .

Bring us the good news Robert

[WeatherNC]

0z GFS through 12hrs, wave is a little more amped through the 4 corners vs the 12z run (not looking at 18z)

[Weather Czar]

I laughed at this. Ive been looking at everyday on the gfs since November and I tell myself the same thing, that low in the GOA is like a land mass on the maps, always there. reminds me of that white car up at charlies on the web cam last year. Thing must of been broking down or the poor fella worked all the time, cause it was always there. Anyway thank goodness for the -NAO. We'd still be dry as a bone and probably blow-torching. Instead we are having the coldest december of all time with atleast small token events. We just had like the 3rd or 4th straight day here of like -16 to -17 temp departures. Everyday this month with the exception of December 1st (thanks to a overnight high) has been below normal.

And I stayed all snow with a lakes cutter.

[FoothillsNC]

at 33 hour theres a 1012 low in the Gulf but its way down there, south of Florida panhandle by 250 miles or so.

[burgertime]

Don't think this is going to be a good run.

[FoothillsNC]

at 36 hour, at 5H this looks so much better than the previous run. A neutral tilt healthy shortwave in easte Tx, but so far the sfc dveopment is still far in the Gulf. But its decent southerly flow atleast. Haven't seen the temps .

[burgertime]

at 39 it's a slight bit west and north of 18z.

[burgertime]

at 42 1012 low off of CHS

[burgertime]

Well it looks better then 18z for sure, it's trying but the sfc temps for us aren't good.

[FoothillsNC]

The GFS looks much better to me at the 5H level but its not responding as well as the NAM in terms of precip or low development. Jst a difference in the models I guess.

[burgertime]

The GFS looks much better to me at the 5H level but its not responding as well as the NAM in terms of precip or low development. Jst a difference in the models I guess.

Not looking bad at 48.

[FoothillsNC]

at 48, about what we expected. the northern wave is catching up to it, but just a smidge to late for western Carolinas I think. This probably will cut up the coast though, so eastern sections still have a good shot. Precip is light over western NC.

[burgertime]

at 48, about what we expected. the northern wave is catching up to it, but just a smidge to late for western Carolinas I think. This probably will cut up the coast though, so eastern sections still have a good shot. Precip is light over western NC.

Like usual it's going to come down to the last minute. The 00z run of the Euro tonight will be the judge, might stay up or wake up for that one.

[FoothillsNC]

at 54 and its shooting precip to DC. Going neg tilt, but too late for western NC

[BullCityWx]

Decent run for Raleigh if it's cold enough.

[NCSNOW]

If this northern stream energy where just 6-12 hours earleir. Its the match that will set this coastal off.

[beanskip]

Only about 100 miles from .... something!

at 48, about what we expected. the northern wave is catching up to it, but just a smidge to late for western Carolinas I think. This probably will cut up the coast though, so eastern sections still have a good shot. Precip is light over western NC.

[burgertime]

Alright well I'm going to sleep. If this thing adds 4 pages by the time I wake up I'll know the Euro did something good.

[HKY18]

if we can keep trending west every run were in this thing in wnc so close yet so far...

[DopplerWx]

Not quite cold enough for northern SC, still time for temps to trend colder or bust on the low side.

[weatherheels]

Surface temps at 42 and 48 dont look encouraging. At 42 the majority of NC is over 40, and at 48 all of NC is above freezing with exception of the higher mountains. I know I know, we cant worry about temps right now, lets just get this storm back on track . . . but its always something, and thats why we love the south.

[Weather Czar]

If this northern stream energy where just 6-12 hours earleir. Its the match that will set this coastal off.

Maybe the Euro has better news.

[POWERSTROKE]

Like usual it's going to come down to the last minute. The 00z run of the Euro tonight will be the judge, might stay up or wake up for that one.

staying up is not going to change models, go to bed it will be there when you get up. i am not going to wait on been up since 3:45am and went to bed at midnight. Being a snow/ice contractor will wear you out. Good luck on Euro--go west young man goo west!!!

[FoothillsNC]

Sigh. the .01" amounts run from GSO to CLT to GSP and points west. Trace event.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like a westward trend on precip. Did you all see the other strand where the mets were talking about "why" the Euro "leads" the way? Pretty interesting. Still lots of flip-flopping of the models. Can't help but think about the Ohio blizzard heading to the northern plains on just a few runs.

[MotoWeatherman]

0z GFS says....congrats to RDU...

Date: 54 hour GFS valid 6Z SUN 19 DEC 10
Station: Krdu
Latitude:   35.87
Longitude: -78.78
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1001   113   0.3   0.2  99  0.2   0.3  29   8 273.5 274.1 273.4 283.9  3.86
 1 1000   117   0.4   0.0  97  0.4   0.3  31   9 273.6 274.2 273.4 283.9  3.82
 2  950   528  -0.6  -1.2  96  0.6  -0.9  45  20 276.6 277.2 274.9 286.7  3.68
 3  850  1416  -1.1  -1.5  98  0.3  -1.3 304   4 284.9 285.6 279.7 296.4  4.04
 4  800  1900  -1.8  -2.0  99  0.2  -1.9 226  12 289.2 289.9 281.8 301.1  4.14
 5  750  2412  -3.4  -3.5  99  0.1  -3.4 213  22 292.9 293.6 283.1 304.4  3.93
 6  700  2956  -5.9  -6.1  99  0.1  -6.0 211  27 295.9 296.6 283.9 306.3  3.47
 7  650  3533  -9.1  -9.4  98  0.2  -9.2 219  31 298.6 299.1 284.4 307.4  2.89
 8  600  4148 -12.5 -12.8  98  0.3 -12.6 231  37 301.7 302.1 284.9 309.1  2.38
 9  550  4808 -17.1 -17.3  98  0.2 -17.2 236  43 303.8 304.1 285.1 309.4  1.78
10  500  5514 -23.2 -24.8  87  1.6 -23.5 240  47 304.7 304.9 284.6 308.0  1.02

[randlemanncwx]

Great radio show tonight! I enjoyed it

[snowlover91]

Appears the GFS MIGHT be suffering from convective feedback but not really sure.