FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the NAM still isn't quite there yet, and not as good to any of us like the Euro was. It doesn't drop much moisture west of a line from RDU-CAE-MCN, just trace amounts to .10" west of that line. Still it could be missing the speed of either the southern or north. stream, but time is running out for big errors I think. Less than 48 hours from start time here, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hmmm. At 54 hours the next shortwave in coming into central TN, the surface low is now shown in eastern coast of Florida, south of JAX actually. anyway the 850 low has warmed right to RDU it looks like, so coastal NC is getting warm advection and inland, so somewhere from RDU to the west southwest is probably in decent snow rates at that time. Good observation. I was just looking at the temp advection plots and the coastal carolinas have strong 850 WAA with CAA at 1000mb and near the sfc. WAA at the mid levels stops based on this at about RDU Down through me before retreating somewhat at 54 hours. Of course at that time the moisture is also retreating from central NC to the coast. Not a great scenario but better than it was looking like before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Tuning in to the radio show. Can't wait to hear what will be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hmmm. At 54 hours the next shortwave in coming into central TN, the surface low is now shown in eastern coast of Florida, south of JAX actually. anyway the 850 low has warmed right to RDU it looks like, so coastal NC is getting warm advection and inland, so somewhere from RDU to the west southwest is probably in decent snow rates at that time. How far west of RDU would that be ? How far NW of the 850 does it usually snow and how far really good rates ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the NAM still isn't quite there yet, and not as good to any of us like the Euro was. It doesn't drop much moisture west of a line from RDU-CAE-MCN, just trace amounts to .10" west of that line. Still it could be missing the speed of either the southern or north. stream, but time is running out for big errors I think. Less than 48 hours from start time here, if any. Yeah, but I'll tell you what, if you look at the low position on the 18z NAM at 60 vs. the 0z at 54 -- that was a couple hundred mile shift of the SLP. One more of those ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hmmm. At 54 hours the next shortwave in coming into central TN, the surface low is now shown in eastern coast of Florida, south of JAX actually. anyway the 850 low has warmed right to RDU it looks like, so coastal NC is getting warm advection and inland, so somewhere from RDU to the west southwest is probably in decent snow rates at that time. I traced this northern stream shortwave coming into central TN all the way back. It actually breaks off of the 526 little ball of energy all the way up in nW Canada in the top right hand corner. Thing is it breaks off around hour 12-18 and sits stationary for 20 hours before riding the jet down. It seems to me it should just come on down, not sure why Nam is holding it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Tuning in to the radio show. Can't wait to hear what will be said. ALL MA ALL SNE ALL THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yep. Going to be hard.. ALL MA ALL SNE ALL THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Very true... Yeah, but I'll tell you what, if you look at the low position on the 18z NAM at 60 vs. the 0z at 54 -- that was a couple hundred mile shift of the SLP. One more of those ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How far west of RDU would that be ? How far NW of the 850 does it usually snow and how far really good rates ? I would name a town, but wouldn't want to jinx the fine outstanding citizens that live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would name a town, but wouldn't want to jinx the fine outstanding citizens that live there. you listening to the radio show ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ALL MA ALL SNE ALL THE TIME True...When I got home from work I was trying to catch up on some reading. Went over and checked out the 12z model thread and there was not one mention of anyone south of Va. I've given up on anyone talking about the SE over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would name a town, but wouldn't want to jinx the fine outstanding citizens that live there. I'm far from outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How far west of RDU would that be ? How far NW of the 850 does it usually snow and how far really good rates ? I'm afraid you're left out Frosty. It would really have to hook west to get you, on about any of the models. You could catcha few flakes Sat. night as the wave is crossing the mountains, but to get a good snow, you'd need what I need, more dvelopment further west.. So it boils down to does the northern stream capture the southern wave , to me it looks like thats going to be extremely hard to do for most inland sections of the Carolinas atleast west of RDU, to any degree. It could play out like the Euro and be "just in the knick" of time, but the overall scenario doesn't look good west of GSO to CLT line, usually sudden developments from a neg. tilting trough in the Southeast can't throw back moisture any further west than that unless its extreme like 2000, and even that had a sharp gradient on the west side of 77. So, still a big long shot pre-Christsmas miracle here. Overall the 5H flow looks decent and any year I'd take my chances and be happy with this look from 48 hours out. The devil is in the details. It takes perfection to get a good snow in the piedmont , but watch this thing end up being another bomb of a storm just to our Northeast for the DC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good disco on the radio actually just about the issues with the maps being so different from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 How far west of RDU would that be ? How far NW of the 850 does it usually snow and how far really good rates ? All depends on how strong the 850 is, but you want to be on the NW side of the track. A weak 850 originating around CLT and deepening significantly as it exits the coast around Hatteras, <20 miles to start as the 850 is weak, 30-70 miles to the NW as it deepens. But this is highly variable on strength, and based on something similar to what the UKMET shows, given the H7 RH plume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm afraid you're left out Frosty. It would really have to hook west to get you, on about any of the models. You could catcha few flakes Sat. night as the wave is crossing the mountains, but to get a good snow, you'd need what I need, more dvelopment further west.. So it boils down to does the northern stream capture the southern wave , to me it looks like thats going to be extremely hard to do for most inland sections of the Carolinas atleast west of RDU, to any degree. It could play out like the Euro and be "just in the knick" of time, but the overall scenario doesn't look good west of GSO to CLT line, usually sudden developments from a neg. tilting trough in the Southeast can't throw back moisture any further west than that unless its extreme like 2000, and even that had a sharp gradient on the west side of 77. So, still a big long shot pre-Christsmas miracle here. Overall the 5H flow looks decent and any year I'd take my chances and be happy with this look from 48 hours out. The devil is in the details. It takes perfection to get a good snow in the piedmont , but watch this thing end up being another bomb of a storm just to our Northeast for the DC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree. However, the SE will only get mentioned if they have to in order to set up the storm. imo Good disco on the radio actually just about the issues with the maps being so different from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 All depends on how strong the 850 is, but you want to be on the NW side of the track. A weak 850 originating around CLT and deepening significantly as it exits the coast around Hatteras, <20 miles to start as the 850 is weak, 30-70 miles to the NW as it deepens. But this is highly variable on strength, and based on something similar to what the UKMET shows, given the H7 RH plume. Ok Thanks ! I'm def out of the game now, It looks like anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree. However, the SE will only get mentioned if they have to in order to set up the storm. imo AMEN BROTHA!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Out to 72 and shows most of the MA and NE with a near miss except for Cape Cod perhaps. Anyway as for us I am hoping to even squeeze out a light accumulation at the back end but my confidence is certainly lower than average. 850 low will obviously be a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 you listening to the radio show ? Na. Unless Robert, Allan host or NcWeather calls in, those folks up that way tend to get the wrong kinda cranks going in me after a few minutes. I'm sure someone will report. Really it's a matter of wait and see when and where the phase will happen. Probably the tougest forecast for a model to verify or have high skill level on is one like we are waiting on iMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When is the run of the NAM scheduled? Sorry, i'm mobile and dont have my list. I'm just thinking the next model run is pretty much going to ice this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Out to 72 and shows most of the MA and NE with a near miss except for Cape Cod perhaps. Anyway as for us I am hoping to even squeeze out a light accumulation at the back end but my confidence is certainly lower than average. 850 low will obviously be a major issue. yes, its doing what the Euro was doing, phasing, but only later. This turns neg. tilt a couple or more hundred miles. Its about timing of the streams. Earlier, wouild help us, later, would hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And this is a major problem. IMO. I thought this was AmericanWX., Sorry for the OT Lookout, but ya know man!! Na. Unless Robert, Allan host or NcWeather calls in, those folks up that way tend to get the wrong kinda cranks going in me after a few minutes. I'm sure someone will report. Really it's a matter of wait and see when and where the phase will happen. Probably the tougest forecast for a model to verify or have high skill level on is one like we are waiting on iMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yes, its doing what the Euro was doing, phasing, but only later. This turns neg. tilt a couple or more hundred miles. Its about timing of the streams. Earlier, wouild help us, later, would hurt us. Very true. Since I am in the US-1 corridor I am hoping for an RDU special of course (down to my area as well). I do know that is rooting against you in a sense though. I just know I really would rather have this thing OTS then a second consecutive screw job at my bday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And this is a major problem. IMO. I thought this was AmericanWX., Sorry for the OT Lookout, but ya know man!! Yea, I don't even know why I listen to them, Makes me sick sometimes like the SE is not on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Out to 72 and shows most of the MA and NE with a near miss except for Cape Cod perhaps. Anyway as for us I am hoping to even squeeze out a light accumulation at the back end but my confidence is certainly lower than average. 850 low will obviously be a major issue. [/quote For you my brotha, if I do not get any snow, I at least will be rooting for you dude!! HAPPY (early) Birthday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 21z SREF gives most of the eastern half of the state at least .1 -- eastern third .25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 All depends on how strong the 850 is, but you want to be on the NW side of the track. A weak 850 originating around CLT and deepening significantly as it exits the coast around Hatteras, <20 miles to start as the 850 is weak, 30-70 miles to the NW as it deepens. But this is highly variable on strength, and based on something similar to what the UKMET shows, given the H7 RH plume. That Jan 2000 was a prime example of the metrics you stated above. Ask the folks back down from Charlotte to Atlanta about how isolated heavy snow was, then expanded NE throughout that day. Some horror stories on here of posters withing 1/2/ hour drive from their back yard with nothing, to places that where getting thumped as everything was phasing together that day. BY The way the airport at Greensboro is still sitting at 32 degrees. Never went above freezing today. Im at 34. While fayetteville and hour and half away is in the 50's. Schools on a 2hour delay w/option to close. Still Ice in slush piles on the roads when I come home from High Point at 5;00 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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