Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[Lookout]

Here's 54 Not gonna cut it for wnc

Please don't post the large images from ncep...just the small ones.

[eyewall]

I would mind seeing this (Southern Pines during the pre-fail zone era in 2000):

[CaryWx]

Wow. Looks cold too. Even Bigfoot's wearing a red coat in that picture.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I suspect a select few would react like this if the Euro goes back to its OTS solution:

Thats too funny

The NW trend dont seem to be working out this winter wx season

[eyewall]

Wow. Looks cold too. Even Bigfoot's wearing a red coat in that picture.

Oh yeah it was for sure. I think we were in the single digits that first night after. Temps certainly didn't rise that day for the most part. I took these on Midland Road (normally 2 lanes in each direction). Anyway as for our event this weekend I am hoping the 0z suite samples the needed shortwave. If it does the runs from there out take on alot more importance. I don't know how much I will be able to stay awake for being I have to be up at 4am.

[BullCityWx]

18z DGEX puts down a stripe of snow across most of NC with the tuesday clipper.

[ICEAGE NOW]

He also said Feb 12, 2010 was going to completely miss us to the south (3-4 inch snow)

I hope he's wrong again, I have a gut feeling alot of people will be suprized come Sunday .

[chapelhillwx]

Oh yeah it was for sure. I think we were in the single digits that first night after. Temps certainly didn't rise that day for the most part. I took these on Midland Road (normally 2 lanes in each direction). Anyway as for our event this weekend I am hoping the 0z suite samples the needed shortwave. If it does the runs from there out take on alot more importance. I don't know how much I will be able to stay awake for being I have to be up at 4am.

Man, was it cold behind that storm. I remember my whole family getting the flu and playing ice hockey on a pond... my mom hit the roof when I told her I did that.

[Pilotwx]

Time for the ole WV.

Look at the vortex just crushing everything up in central Canada!

It looks like it wants to reorganize North Americas weather pattern for good . Moving east to west.

http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24

[BIG FROSTY]

Please don't post the large images from ncep...just the small ones.

OK, Sorry didn't know !

[CaryWx]

Time for the ole WV.

Look at the vortex just crushing everything up in central Canada!

It looks like it wants to reorganize North Americas weather pattern for good . Moving east to west.

http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24

Is that our short wave coming onto baja california there?

[eyewall]

Man, was it cold behind that storm. I remember my whole family getting the flu and playing ice hockey on a pond... my mom hit the roof when I told her I did that.

LOL nice anyway I set up a twitter account to go along with my new site:

http://twitter.com/#!/SandhillsWxNC

[BIG FROSTY]

Looking ay the euro qpf it gives me .35 for the weekend.

GFS gives me .02

Nam gives me .06

[ICEAGE NOW]

One of my favorites. I'm right under the 20 on that map. Several hours of thunder snow. Picture of my back deck.

ICEAGE NOW said :

One of the biggest snow's I remember here in N.C. was the March 1-2, 1980 eastern N.C. Blizzard, I was 18 then and living near Goldsboro, we had 21 inches in our yard, first time I ever heard and saw thundersnow at night, I was walking across the yard , me and my brother, looking at the snow drifts during the storm, out of no were, BAMM ! the sky lite up and thunder rolled, I looked around and all I saw were footprints of my brother running back to the house, we were out of school for 4 days, ah ya, good times.

[POWERSTROKE]

OK, Sorry didn't know !

quit getting all worked up on the GFS runs. Nobody expected what we got today I am telling you some of the slickest roads I have seen in years from Winston-Salem to High Point. I saw some of the hardest hitting wrecks I've seen in a storm. One was 100 feet in front of me

[NCSNOW]

The Good Ol days. I had 17 with this one and managed 15 IMBY with the 2000 snow Eyewall has pics of. My Top 4 Most Impressive Winter Storms

Feb 2004 (17 inches)

Jan 2000 (15 inches)

Superstorm 1993 ( Was in Cullowhee for that one) (15 / Official Blizzard Warning issued)

December 2002 Mega Central Carolina Crushing Ice Storm.

One of my favorites. I'm right under the 20 on that map. Several hours of thunder snow. Picture of my back deck.

[superjames1992]

Connect the dots between Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philly, New York, Providence, and Boston and you get Accuweather's Call Map!

[Cold Rain]

To those bashing the NWS for not upping snow chances, consider how we've only had one set of model runs that have shown a more developed and closer to the coast solution. It'd be dumb to change the forecast based on one set of runs for an iffy scenario. If the models remain consistent in showing a snowier solution, the NWS will update the forecasts. It just won't happen overnight at this range.

Good post. Very true.

[Snow haven]

Connect the dots between Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philly, New York, Providence, and Boston and you get Accuweather's Call Map!

Yea but how far will that blue come down? Im not even in the blue and i was thinking i would get some. by this i dont get anything

[burgertime]

Yea but how far will that blue come down? Im not even in the blue and i was thinking i would get some. by this i dont get anything

First rule of thumb...never trust an accuwx map.

[burgertime]

and here comes the NAM

[rduwx]

Yea but how far will that blue come down? Im not even in the blue and i was thinking i would get some. by this i dont get anything

I wouldn't concern yourself w/ that Accuweather map. Most of there paid subscribers are from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. They really don't pay much attention to anyone south of Va. If they can hype the people in the MA and NE thats more subscriptions for them.

[Cold Rain]

I wouldn't concern yourself w/ that Accuweather map. Most of there paid subscribers are from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. They really don't pay much attention to anyone south of Va. If they can hype the people in the MA and NE thats more subscriptions for them.

Ha! I was about to say the exact same thing. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever concern yourself with an Accuweather 48 hr. snowfall map. Ever.

[burgertime]

Ha! I was about to say the exact same thing. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever concern yourself with an Accuweather 48 hr. snowfall map. Ever.

HM (not the HM that posts on American) always has the most ridiculous map calls surprised he hasn't put one out that has made it here.

[WeatherNC]

First rule of thumb...never trust an accuwx map.

It is a well known fact that accuwx sn-maps are targeted towards a specific populous, north of the VA NC boarder...

HPC's final extended from this afternoon, did not see it posted. Sometimes they remind me of the main-side model threads as there is no mention of possibilities south of VA.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM...

...CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST...

EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA

LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE

PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE

WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED

SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD

WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN

WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE

EAST.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWF

ENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5.

THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF

AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N

ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND

ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF

CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO

YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.

THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN

TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST

CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER

OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK

AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A

BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.

AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE

NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH

INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS

FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE

TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE

RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A

SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST

AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME

ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS

WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.

HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ROSENSTEIN

But they consider NC part of the "Middle Atlantic," so I guess there saying we have a chance, kind of

NAM 12hr products running as of 8:34pm EST, still waiting on the ingest message, and will post the RAOB recap once they release it.

[Snow haven]

I wouldn't concern yourself w/ that Accuweather map. Most of there paid subscribers are from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. They really don't pay much attention to anyone south of Va. If they can hype the people in the MA and NE thats more subscriptions for them.

Ha! I was about to say the exact same thing. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever concern yourself with an Accuweather 48 hr. snowfall map. Ever.

ok thanks that makes me feel better. I guess im trying to figure this out because i am traveling north this weekend into Virginia on Sat. and coming back Sat night i was trying to figure if i was going to have trouble coming back home that night. I guess its to early to tell. When are ya'll going to put out your own call map?

[Cold Rain]

HM (not the HM that posts on American) always has the most ridiculous map calls surprised he hasn't put one out that has made it here.

He sure does. If the 0Z runs have the storm, which I expect they will, you can bet he'll have one out in the morning. It'll probably suck too, like usual.

[Gastonwxman]

HM (not the HM that posts on American) always has the most ridiculous map calls surprised he hasn't put one out that has made it here.

I agree. Did you see his winter forecast map? I was like: That did not make a lick of sense whatsoever.

[burgertime]

PV is a little more west at 15.

[Cold Rain]

ok thanks that makes me feel better. I guess im trying to figure this out because i am traveling north this weekend into Virginia on Sat. and coming back Sat night i was trying to figure if i was going to have trouble coming back home that night. I guess its to early to tell. When are ya'll going to put out your own call map?

I'm supposed to travel to Burlington (from Raleigh) and back on Saturday evening. I think it's still too early to tell yet. My feeling is that this will end up farther west and stronger than the models are showing, which unfortunately, would mean mostly rain for me.