SBUWX23 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like some convective feedback on the nam. There are bullseyes of omega offshore that could be factoring in on the overall surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Which is the more believable in this range (60hrs or so) the Euro or NAM. I know the NAM has a poorer recorded beyond 48, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How far west did it go? Just eyeballing it at hr48 it is just off the NC coast whereas the prior runs had it a hundred miles or so off the coast. Precip this run is knocking on CLT doorstep but the 12z had is hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 at 57hrs there's nothing offshore but a bit flat moisture (not even a discernable LP), if I read it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ive seen every other model be opposite the euro and the euro ends up right...let's see if that occurs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Which is the more believable in this range (60hrs or so) the Euro or NAM. I know the NAM has a poorer recorded beyond 48, correct? Normally I'd take the Euro over the NAM or GFS outside of 24-36 hours but that is just me. I think the Euro has a high varification rate outside that window as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Which is the more believable in this range (60hrs or so) the Euro or NAM. I know the NAM has a poorer recorded beyond 48, correct? I would take the 12Z Euro over the 18Z NAM any day of the week.... but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Normally I'd take the Euro over the NAM or GFS outside of 24-36 hours but that is just me. I think the Euro has a high varification rate outside that window as well. Jinx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Which is the more believable in this range (60hrs or so) the Euro or NAM. I know the NAM has a poorer recorded beyond 48, correct? The nam is one of the worst models out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Perhaps the best line isn't to discount the 18Z NAM, but to praise it for being better than its predecessor. It's a bit to the west and a bit wetter thusfar. Think of it as a puppy that whizzed on the floor by the front door. It didn't quite get there, but at least it didn't hit the rug again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like some convective feedback on the nam. There are bullseyes of omega offshore that could be factoring in on the overall surface reflection. Thanks for the update, would certainly explain the night and day look from 12z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam looks nice and warm too. Fortunately, the chances that it'll verify are just shy of slim. See Rule #3 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thanks folks. Try and get back later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Perhaps the best line isn't to discount the 18Z NAM, but to praise it for being better than its predecessor. It's a bit to the west and a bit wetter thusfar. Think of it as a puppy that whizzed on the floor by the front door. It didn't quite get there, but at least it didn't hit the rug again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Latest AFD from RAH: SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY... LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST...AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN TO A SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH PRECIPITATION FARTHER INLAND...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID-LEVELS MOISTEN FIRST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE VOLUME OF THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 800MB TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. PURE MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ...THOUGH WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF MIX OF ANY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY AS IT BEGINS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AND PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE TRIAD...MID-LEVELS MOISTEN TO THE POINT WHERE PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR...AND IF IT DOES... BOTH BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER. AT THIS POINT...WILL FORECAST JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...DRY IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH ANY SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW QPF. 850MB THETA-E VALUES FINALLY START TO INCREASE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE INCREASING DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...DIMINISHING BY 12Z SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND ISENTROPIC DESCENT BECOMES DOMINANT. ENOUGH EVIDENCE IS IN PLACE TO SUGGEST LIKELY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW... EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF JUST LIGHT SNOW IN THE TRIAD WHERE THE PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT ANY MIX...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE TREND OF SUCH GUIDANCE AS THE VERY LATEST ECMWF VERIFY BETTER...INCREASING QPF AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE FORECAST. FOR NOW...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUGGESTING MINS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING...WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF CONTINUING A MENTION OF WINTERY WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 253 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010 && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF THIS EVE AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE E OF THE AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO SCT OUT LATE AND WITH WET SOIL...AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IS PSBL SO AN ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED LATER. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVG. ALTHO PRECIP WILL END WELL BEFORE TEMPS ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR REACH FREEZING...AREAS OF BLACK ICE WILL BE PSBL SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVSRY FOR BLACK ICE LATE TONIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS RISE FRI AND WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AT THE SFC. USING A MODEL BLEND...HIGHS FRI SHOULD REACH THE L50S ACROSS THE S CWA...M-U40S N...WITH U30S-M40S MTNS.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST ENERGY FRIDAY NIGHT...INITIALLY JUST IN THE MID/UPPER LVLS ATOP THE CWFA. GIVEN LATEST TIMING...IT WOULD SEEM THAT JUST SMALL PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR LIGHT WINTRY PCPN FALLING OUT OF MID-DECK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY. THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...DEEPEST LAYERED FORCING/RESPONSE SEEMS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SE...BUT SLUG OF VORT ENERGY/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DOES WIND IT/S WAY ACRS AT LEAST WESTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN THE CRITICALLY CHILLY AIR ACRS THE CWFA...MODEL RESPONSE IS VARIED...BUT NOT WORSE THAN AN A QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIV...AND GENERALLY WITHIN THE RELATIVELY MILDER AIR...AS PER 12 UTC ECMWF. WILL PLAN ON TRENDING A LITTLE MORE BULLISH THAN PERSISTENCE...CREEPING POPS UPWARD...BUT FEATURING QPF CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SREF SOLUTION FOR NOW...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MY EASTERN PIEDMONT ZONES. CONSENSUS THERMAL PROFILES PROG THE 1540 DM 85H-70H THICKNESS VALUE AND ROUGH RAIN/SNOW LINE...PIVOTING JUST EAST OF THE NC MTNS/FTHLS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEFORE CAA REGIME SWEEPS IT TOWARD THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER PALTRY QPF...WILL BE FCSTG JUST SUB-ADVISORY SNOW ACCUMS...MAINLY ACRS THE NC MTNS...ALTHOUGH IF THE GFS/ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WILL HAVE ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT DRY SLOT TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION AS SATURDAY NIGHT WEARS ON SETTING US UP FOR A DRY SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Damn it, Corey. NO! He was talking about his overall winter forecast for snow and bottom line, this is not our event as of now and likely will not be unless you move to North Carolina which would be great for the other GA posters! :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 On the 18Z thread on the main board it was mentioned and confirmed that both the 12Z and 18Z NAM was lacking the data on the shortwave in their sampling that the EURO had. Looks to give even less credibility to the already shaky long range of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ive seen every other model be opposite the euro and the euro ends up right...let's see if that occurs again. OK Queencity, you were ready to throw in the towel on this storm yesterday...do you really think we can pull an upset and bring it home now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, FFC barely even mentions the next system, sounds like they're more concerned with the one after that. Entire AFD .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BY SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BIGHT...AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY ON INTENSITY...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS KEEPS SYSTEM IN THE MID WEST...DRAGGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE MOVES THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF...HOWEVER...PULLS A WEAKER SURFACE FEATURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND DEEPENS THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TENDS TOWARDS THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the flow so progressive, I'm having a hard time seeing this northern piece of energy digging any farther south / any stronger than what we see on today's Euro. Unfortunately, I think today's Euro is about as good as we are going to see with respect to precip. I'm way more concerned about this thing trending weaker and out to sea than I am stronger and more inland (too warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 OK Queencity, you were ready to throw in the towel on this storm yesterday...do you really think we can pull an upset and bring it home now? My towel is still in...it's just interesting to see the euro as the only cowboy on the ranch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, FFC barely even mentions the next system, sounds like they're more concerned with the one after that. Entire AFD This year looks like a year for surprises to me. Like Atl. and NeGa got last night. This one looks better than yesterday, and close...we'll just have to see how things look tomorrow and hope we get surprised. At least we are on the edge of things, and not yet sitting on the bench. I know I need some rain here. A few flakes and some sleet yesterday didn't do anything for my bucket. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, FFC barely even mentions the next system, sounds like they're more concerned with the one after that. Entire AFD .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BY SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BIGHT...AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY ON INTENSITY...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS KEEPS SYSTEM IN THE MID WEST...DRAGGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE MOVES THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF...HOWEVER...PULLS A WEAKER SURFACE FEATURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND DEEPENS THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TENDS TOWARDS THE GFS. Eh, they said pretty much all there is to be said about the Saturday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 My towel is still in...it's just interesting to see the euro as the only cowboy on the ranch. Hopefully the towel is like Rocky, when the odds are stacked against him all that montage training comes through and he gets the victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FWIW, looks like the 12Z GGEM holds more promise that 12 hours earlier. Throws frozen precip a good 100 miles further inland and keeps much of the area west of I-95 colder. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can someone fill me in on what the slp track was for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can someone fill me in on what the slp track was for this... http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/winter_Feb25_27_2004.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FWIW, the latest SREF has the moisture moving a bit more slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That was a monster, slow moving upper low in the southern stream, with sfc low tracking just off the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2004/us0226.php Can someone fill me in on what the slp track was for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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