TheVille Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 From LC in this case, we are referring to a piece of energy at 500mb (vortmax) dropping into the long wave trough and amplifying it example of what to look for on an H5 map... Thanks! This helps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 So it's basically where the two streams combine? You know on Ghostbusters where they say don't cross the streams? Well, they lied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 nice subheader: If this looked like a MA and NE event atm, header would be different, much different, no chance... If they get screwed, we may get lucky, or screwed, it really could go either way at this point given the marginal cold air in place and no fresh source of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah we should probably lock up the December 14th and onward thread. Anyway obviously a less phased solution at 0z and no hookup with the MN piece. Less amplification all around so the energy from the upper midwest never gets there as it hangs on the SW side of the PV. One thing we need to consider is the weak STJ as our good friend SBUWX23 reminded me of it in a FB chat. This may be the culprit in the model bouncing around on the phasing. Euro is next. Jeremy, What are you implying when you say we need to "consider the weak STJ" and this may be the "culprit"? Thanks for any input, as I am trying to learn. Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hard to interpret the b&w graphics from the CMC in terms of winter weather, but the GGEM has a weak 1012mb area of low pressure at 72hrs, extending from Augusta to Pensacola., with precip extending from LA to NC. At 84hrs, strung out 1010mb low extending from Savannah to off the NC Coast, SE still entrenched in QPF. 96hrs, strung out low heading OTS and pecip exiting stage right through SC and NC. Thickness looks like ass implying this would be an all RN event for most south of VA, except maybe western NC, if I am reading the 1000-700mb graphic correctly. From DT buries east va the new 0z dec 15 ggem does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hard to interpret the b&w graphics from the CMC in terms of winter weather, but the GGEM has a weak 1012mb area of low pressure at 72hrs, extending from Augusta to Pensacola., with precip extending from LA to NC. At 84hrs, strung out 1010mb low extending from Savannah to off the NC Coast, SE still entrenched in QPF. 96hrs, strung out low heading OTS and pecip exiting stage right through SC and NC. Thickness looks like ass implying this would be an all RN event for most south of VA, except maybe western NC, if I am reading the 1000-700mb graphic correctly. From DT I don't think it is as bad as you think. The GGEM has been known to have a warm bias. the track look good to me at least for those in the piedmont area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't think it is as bad as you think. The GGEM has been known to have a warm bias. the track look good to me at least for those in the piedmont area. yeah, my assessment could be incorrect about RN for most, hard to tell with those crappy graphics. 700-1000mb thickness line at 1284m is on the nw edge of the precp shield, all the way till it exits the coast. 1000-500mb thickness does not look favorable though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah, my assessment could be incorrect about RN for most, hard to tell with those crappy graphics. 700-1000mb thickness line at 1284m is on the nw edge of the precp shield, all the way till it exits the coast. 1000-500mb thickness does not look favorable though.. tgnt's ggem slp looks looks close to the gfs..........Theres 3 hr's of 85h at 95% or better during sat's event over the nw piedmont of nc.........this is a rn or sn event for north central nc sat.... western nc may see some sun sunday..........EC run shortly will be interesting i am in the gfs camp for now xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z ECMWF, 1006mb low, wtf OTS at 96hrs, splits the bill between NC and Bermuda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well 00z euro s/w is flat as hell but the pv in the ne is farther west just a completely different look at h5 over the northeast but i think the slp track was close to the gfs. no really heavy qpf amounts in general from what im hearing. but if that s/w is any more amplified then this thing phases and would most likely be right along the coast. 12z will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 well 00z euro s/w is flat as hell but the pv in the ne is farther west just a completely different look at h5 over the northeast but i think the slp track was close to the gfs. no really heavy qpf amounts in general from what im hearing. but if that s/w is any more amplified then this thing phases and would most likely be right along the coast. 12z will be interesting. hearing the same, time for bed... congrats bermuda...no precip gets above nc, no really heavy precip in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I really don't know what to say about the euro. The s/w was weaker, not a lot of qpf, and east. Only a light amount of qpf make it in NC. Just not what I was expecting from the euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Time to cue up the 'ole Northwest Trend, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Time to cue up the 'ole Northwest Trend, I guess. it seems the euro although the solution is the east like most models, that its struggling whether or not the s/w will be more potent or flat that makes a huge difference because if it was amped up at all this thing we be right at the coast. one thing to remember is the NAM has the feature much stronger even though its out of its 'good range' it makes all the difference as to what weather we see this weekend. if its as flat as the euro has it then we would see cloudy skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And of course, Dr. No lives up to his name once more. *Sigh* Well, thankfully there's still time for things to change, especially once Thursday's system is over with, but we're starting to run out for that. On that note, I have the following message for the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And of course, Dr. No lives up to his name once more. *Sigh* Well, thankfully there's still time for things to change, especially once Thursday's system is over with, but we're starting to run out for that. On that note, I have the following message for the Euro: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well, still a long ways to go with this one. The 6Z GFS was encouraging for the central/northern Piedmont and perhaps part of the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not a lot of change to my eye on the 6z GFS from the 0z the LP is not phasing much, if at all. Even though the GFS is not showing a major snow it still appears to have snow for the I-85 corridor and points north and west with it. Still lots of time for it to change. Also the GFS sends another pretty darn cold air mass in here middle of next week just in time for Christmas. Like Foothills said yesterday the pattern we are in keeps reloading and repeating. Hopefully before the pattern changes too much we can cash in on a good storm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is starting to look like a NE NC & SE VA special, at-least on the global... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is starting to look like a NE NC & SE VA special, at-least on the global... If we get a inch tommorrow and can squeeze 2-3" out Sunday that would at least have us at 100% of our yearly average before Jan. Looks like the latest runs are at least somewhat trending the right way given the event is still 3-5 days out. I would rather it not have us getting dumped on in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 JB not giving up yet. lol While the GFS has shifted EAST, the players that can cause the beast are still not into position where one should give up on this The fact is that its not yet time to "give up" In fact, the GFS looks like its in its usual day 4 denial mode with some feedback max running out in front in the northern branch. What makes this much more intriguing is that there are no models disagreeing with it, its lined up with all the other non models. The UKMET has backed off too I havent, I feel the ideas are still on the table. So we'll see ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 From RAH .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS PERIOD... IN ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS OUR REGION... AROUND THE BASE OF THE RETROGRESSING POLAR VORTEX. THE OVERSPREADING OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING ATOP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY SEND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ULTIMATELY CULMINATING IN A STRONGER... CONSOLIDATED COASTAL CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF NWP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT... WHICH WAS FOR A FASTER AND MORE ZONAL STORM TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST AND LESSER WINTRY IMPACT FOR CENTRAL NC. NONETHELESS... EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION... THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE BY EARLY SATURDAY... THEN GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW -- WITH SOME ACCUMULATION -- BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. LET/S GET THROUGH THE FIRST EVENT THURSDAY AND ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENTER THE RAOB NETWORK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEFORE GETTING TOO CUTE WITH SPECIFICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Bears watching KGSP.. Lets move this current system on out folks.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 638 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 SAT THRU SAT NGT...THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN A LTL BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF COAST WAVE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS IS STILL DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND PAINTS A RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH DECENT QPF ACRS THE CWA (ESP SAT AFTN THRU THE EVE). THE GFS IS ON THE WRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THE MORE ELY ECMWF HAS QPF ACRS THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS IN A DEFORMATION ZONE BAND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THESE PERIODS. CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOW IN THE MTNS IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...AS ARCTIC HIGH STILL OFF TO THE WEST AS THE PRECIP FALLS. SO HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACRS THE NC MTNS AND EVENTUALLY THE NC PIEDMONT AS POPS TAPER OFF. THIS SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING.-- End Changed Discussion -- From RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 3z SREF Mean actually doesn't look bad at all at 87hrs (just trying to find any bit of hope folks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 3z SREF Mean actually doesn't look bad at all at 87hrs (just trying to find any bit of hope folks) We need a north trend with this system just like VA is getting with the one tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 JB not giving up yet. lol While the GFS has shifted EAST, the players that can cause the beast are still not into position where one should give up on this The fact is that its not yet time to "give up" In fact, the GFS looks like its in its usual day 4 denial mode with some feedback max running out in front in the northern branch. What makes this much more intriguing is that there are no models disagreeing with it, its lined up with all the other non models. The UKMET has backed off too I havent, I feel the ideas are still on the table. So we'll see ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I haven't even begun to give up on this storm yet. The GFS was not that bad for us in the CLT area and there is plenty of time for the models to swing around as well. It will be interesting to see what the this afternoons Euro shows and the 12z models. I just have a feeling the storm will be stronger than what the early morning runs showed but that is more of a gut feeling rather than scientific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z NAM slower with the weekend system and looking healthier than 6z.....just first glance before walking out of the office though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z NAM slower with the weekend system and looking healthier than 6z.....just first glance before walking out of the office though. You beat me to it Matt. Thanks for you input, Have a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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