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Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

I think you are VERY much in this thing. Not so much here in northeast TN, but still not out of the question here either.

I would think your still in the game. Most of the QPF for are area comes from the gulf. The as the low turns up the GA coast it sets up a backside deformation band. The 850 temps look good so i would assume higher rates are possible. The last two runs of the Euro have been great, And I hope it continues like this over the next two.:snowman:

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Thanks Robert! Guess this one just isn't our storm. Hopefully we'll get more opportunities later on down the road.

Nothing wintery to look forward to here in the midlands DLI...at least not yet anyway :(

Well, good luck NC folks on this next system, GA will likely get the screw and back do cold and dry again. I hate storms that barely miss us then go on to cream the entire eastern seaboard.

Glad I chased the snow last weekend....

Here in the midlands of SC...we feel your pain :hug:

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FLO

FLO

Posted
Posted

Nothing wintery to look forward to here in the midlands DLI...at least not yet anyway :(

Here in the midlands of SC...we feel your pain :hug:

I am in Aiken, but we are doing Christmas in Charlotte with the inlaws this weekend. Hopefully we run into snow.

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DLI4SCwx

DLI4SCwx

Posted
Posted

Nothing wintery to look forward to here in the midlands DLI...at least not yet anyway :(

Here in the midlands of SC...we feel your pain :hug:

Hey Buckeye....No real biggie here if we don't get any winter wx in our area this time around. We got a heckuva lot last Feb. 9" worth! :-) Probably more than we will see again, anytime soon. So, i'm happy if everyone else around us gets in on the winter fun.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Dude chill out. Don't take out your unhappiness on me. I just asked a few questions. Look at my post count. I average 5 post per day and your freaking out because I asked a question 2 or 3 times? I don't understand why people can't just relax. I'm out of here. Have a good day and thanks for the reply foothillsnc :)

You need to understand how annoying it is to other posters when someone comes along asking the same question multiple times and not taking the time to fully read and understand what someone is saying. Most of these questions can be answered by simply taking the time to listen to what someone is saying. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is or is not a reasonable question.

ga usually is screwed with rain so i dont expect that to change. however, the models have sucked big time so i am just waiting to see how it plays out. some indications are that the Low may be in a generally favorable position for snow in n ga - and honestly being in the bullseye this far out is the worst (imho). its rare to have a se snowstorm depicted on the models days out and then have it come to verify. i would rather have one like yesterday with low expectations and end up with a surprise than expect a biggie and get nothing. guess tomorrow evening will be spent watching the models holding out some hope for ga :devilsmiley:

hopefully we can get some more trends in our favor (i would love a biggie, obviously, but anything 1" or more is great in ga, unless you get an inch an 10 miles away they get 8" )

instead of asking the same question over and over (ie. how much for mby) try to read and learn, then you can figure it out yourself from the models. trust me, when and if n ga starts to get in the game, the ga posters will turn on weenie overdrive, and you will see lookout, cheez, foothills, hky etc. posting about it. when they start then pay attention

this is just too far out for the models to be able to tell. the soundings for n ga yesterday were marginal for a lot of places and it was a toss up until the precip started. even if you dont read the models, by paying attention to who is posting and about what location you should be able to figure it out.

and when and if lookout starts honking for ga, get really excited :scooter:

:lol: Thanks. Yeah, I'm not too excited with this one as it stands now. Soundings are a bit warm but as robert alluded to, if the low does crank up quicker, it's reasonable to assume flow in the boundary layer would increase out of the northeast and there is some colder air over the western carolinas on the gfs/nam.

But we really need it to and considering this isn't being shown on any of the models (and the fact it's within 72 hours), big changes are growing less likely with each run.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

As do I. We just need to make sure that this system gets its act together, first of all, before deciding to make a run for N. FL. while having the energy phasing early. Maybe then our neck of woods get in on something for sure assuming it all falls into place correctly. Thanks for going into detail regarding the weekend system, btw. I enjoy it when someone takes their time to explain all of the details.

One thing I would like to ask you is regarding the wavelength. When you say that it may be too long, are you saying that it could have negative implications on western development or do you think that the retrograding flow will be able to take care of that issue? Thanks.

I should have said the zonal flow looks very long. The s/w in the southern stream moves right along and then decides to amplify after about a 2000 mile trip. It could happen though, just wait and see what the models do with the northern branch coming into it and exactly where.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

The intial wave that tracks into Arizona today looks better on this Euro run compared to last night - a little stronger with a little more amplitude as it moves east...with more ridging behind it. Would like to see that trend continue. This seems to help the next piece of energy from the northern stream to dig farther SE compared to last night's run. All of which helps to get this system cranked up sooner.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

You are right. The track seems very good for us. I would like to see it stronger too. And come just a little farther west.

Low track sometimes is over rated. Been burned quite a few times by systems following a climatologically favorable track. It's certainly something to consider but the devil is in the details, as always.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

What ever happened to the days where storms would track inland? Man I miss those.

Remember last year? ;)

What's interesting is the slp track is pretty ideal for us. I think we're very much in the game. Still 3 days away.

Interesting. Here is the mean SLP track for Hickory snowfalls of greater than 7" according to Allan Huffman's website.

hkylowtrack.gif

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I was curious as to what track the Jan. 2000 storm took? Was it similar?

I don't have the exact SLP track, but NC State has an extensive writeup on it here:

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20000125/

A few things i find interesting that, IMO, would support snow over the western part of the state as well. One, most gulf storms that miss western NC/NW SC are systems where the SLP tracks over the Florida big bend area. Ones that generally avoid GA and head offshore NE Florida. You can see below on the WRF at 48 hours where the likely baroclinic zone will be, over the Florida panhandle into southeastern GA/SC. That is where the likely SLP would head. Additionally there is no overwhelming cold air source to suppress this system like we've seen in the past, such as Jan 2002 storm. If anything the cold air may be in short supply. So I would not get discouraged if you live west of 77. Way too early for that IMO.

Wouldn't mind another January 2002! That was truly a snowfall for all of North Carolina.

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20020102/

accum.20020102.gif

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HKY18

HKY18

Posted
Posted

:lol: Is Lookout's ledge full? Besides....it's still to early in the season to opt out. BUT.....You can hold a spot for me to join you in March if I haven't seen anything frozen by then :wub:

yes this is the new way of mass weenie suicide, no wait they just all line up and get obliterated :banned::devilsmiley:

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NCStateMMY

NCStateMMY

Posted
Posted

I don't have the exact SLP track, but NC State has an extensive writeup on it here:

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20000125/

Wouldn't mind another January 2002! That was truly a snowfall for all of North Carolina.

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20020102/

accum.20020102.gif

Oh man, January 2002 is my all time favorite storm. 18" inches at my parents just 3 miles west of KRWI.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

I don't have the exact SLP track, but NC State has an extensive writeup on it here:

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20000125/

Wouldn't mind another January 2002! That was truly a snowfall for all of North Carolina.

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20020102/

accum.20020102.gif

This was a beautiful event I remember it well :) In fact the early 2000's were a great time to be here for winter as a whole

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