Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[AirNelson39]

As much as all the models have trended in their last run, I truly believe they will continue this trend on the models the next few runs as well. Im willing to bet central NC will do the best with a decent amount for the foothills. Just my gut based on how the models are acting

[StormSC]

Will I at least get some wraparound here on the NC/SC border? Or does it look like all rain? Thanks in advance! Please don't trend too far west.

[tnweathernut]

Nabady anserred my questyun.

If you were more pleasant, someone would have already helped you out. Try being more optimistic.................even though snow chances usually screws us in the SE.

[DaculaWeather]

I don't know, I'm still holding out hope. Things have improved a little, the low seems to be in a better place than before, if it will strengthen a little more, we might be on to something. It doesn't take much of a jog or change in temps for us to move things north or south. I'd just like to wait until later runs before writing this off for us completely.

[Snow haven]

i hope us richmond county folks get a good snow dump. We hardly had anything last night or this morning which I was not expecting hardly anything either. I right on #1 so i hope we are in the heavy zone.

[snowdevil]

What ledge? This guy will almost spam this site like he has others if allowed to continue with his line of questioning. I dismissed him as a kid 7 years ago but he has to be in his twenties by now. He needs to read, comprehend what he is reading and ask questions later. Corey is lazy.

Dude chill out. Don't take out your unhappiness on me. I just asked a few questions. Look at my post count. I average 5 post per day and your freaking out because I asked a question 2 or 3 times? I don't understand why people can't just relax. I'm out of here. Have a good day and thanks for the reply foothillsnc

[Cold Rain]

But you had time to make a vague and unsubstantiated post. Interesting.

Rudeness.

[GreensboroWx]

First of all, this is not the end of the "cold period." From what I have seen today, expect the cold air to linger through the New Year. Hell, it's not even officially winter yet!!

Second, it's impossible to pinpoint any exact details at this time. Yes, you are in a favored location right now. Of course, this could change by tonight's runs.

So here's the thing I want verification on. If the storm trends stronger and further NW, how bad are we talking for the temps here in the Triangle (western Triangle is all I care about, really)? I know that a stronger storm will pull in colder air, but will it be enough and in time? I'm starting to get worried. I'd hate to see a rainstorm here to round out this cold period.

[Cold Rain]

Nabady anserred my questyun.

See above.

[FoothillsNC]

Nabady anserred my questyun.

Hey Foothills,

If the LP phases sooner wouldn't that slow it down as well? Hopefully we can get a little more phasing to not only bring more of W.NC into play but also slow it down enough to allow colder air to filter in.

Loving the trends today though, hopefully we can keep it up! Our window is shrinking though.....

Yes, and I'm thinking this is going to be a big deal because the long wave length that spans the country should allow for a big time ampflification along the east coast somewhere. The block still there argues for the interior southeast roughly, which would place the coastal just inland in GA I think. So keep your eye on future runs. The trough out west stays there. But the flow in Canada is retrograding and that sends alarm bells to me , atleast the Euro is showing that, and opens the door to a rapid developing neg. tilt system. As you know , if you have cold enough air , then neg. tilt systems will turn you to snow, and I could see this turning into a monster snowstorm in the eastern third to eastern half of NC, similar to Jan 2000 but nowhere near those totals. I just like how the next piece phases at exactly the right time to suddenly bomb this , and this particular storm is already much further south than that one (not comparing in anyway to Jan2000--but alluding to the sudden development), so with the overall southerly displacement already, that could allow northeast GA and much of the western Carolnas to get into deformation snow if IF the development would occur just a little sooner, like HKY said.

The main thing I'm keying on with the GGEM and EURO is the long wave length and the backing flow in Canada...That opens the door that the storm could really develop quicker than the models are showing, which would be a huge difference in actual weather for the western edges of the storm. Meaning going from just a grazing to a complete in the heart system with excellent rates and dynamic cooling. Then that would rotate up the east coast. It's a possibility, but i'm not calling for that yet.

the wavelength looks too long, but I don't know. The development could occur further west with the retrograding flow. We'll see though

[HKY_WX]

A few things i find interesting that, IMO, would support snow over the western part of the state as well. One, most gulf storms that miss western NC/NW SC are systems where the SLP tracks over the Florida big bend area. Ones that generally avoid GA and head offshore NE Florida. You can see below on the WRF at 48 hours where the likely baroclinic zone will be, over the Florida panhandle into southeastern GA/SC. That is where the likely SLP would head. Additionally there is no overwhelming cold air source to suppress this system like we've seen in the past, such as Jan 2002 storm. If anything the cold air may be in short supply. So I would not get discouraged if you live west of 77. Way too early for that IMO.

[DixieBlizzard]

Dude chill out. Don't take out your unhappiness on me. I just asked a few questions. Look at my post count. I average 5 posts asking the same question per day and your freaking out because I asked a the same question 2 or 3 times? I don't understand why people can't just relax. I'm out of here. Have a good day and thanks for the reply foothillsnc

There, fixed that for you.

Anyway, it was amazing how fast temps rose today. At 10am, we were holding onto mid-30's but by noon, it was over 50F. The warm up today was more than welcome too!

[Itunis]

I don't know, I'm still holding out hope. Things have improved a little, the low seems to be in a better place than before, if it will strengthen a little more, we might be on to something. It doesn't take much of a jog or change in temps for us to move things north or south. I'd just like to wait until later runs before writing this off for us completely.

Yeah, the track is close to an ideal track, we just need it stronger/colder. Which is going to be hard to do.

[NEGa]

I don't know, I'm still holding out hope. Things have improved a little, the low seems to be in a better place than before, if it will strengthen a little more, we might be on to something. It doesn't take much of a jog or change in temps for us to move things north or south. I'd just like to wait until later runs before writing this off for us completely.

ga usually is screwed with rain so i dont expect that to change. however, the models have sucked big time so i am just waiting to see how it plays out. some indications are that the Low may be in a generally favorable position for snow in n ga - and honestly being in the bullseye this far out is the worst (imho). its rare to have a se snowstorm depicted on the models days out and then have it come to verify. i would rather have one like yesterday with low expectations and end up with a surprise than expect a biggie and get nothing. guess tomorrow evening will be spent watching the models holding out some hope for ga

hopefully we can get some more trends in our favor (i would love a biggie, obviously, but anything 1" or more is great in ga, unless you get an inch an 10 miles away they get 8" )

Dude chill out. Don't take out your unhappiness on me. I just asked a few questions. Look at my post count. I average 5 post per day and your freaking out because I asked a question 2 or 3 times? I don't understand why people can't just relax. I'm out of here. Have a good day and thanks for the reply foothillsnc

instead of asking the same question over and over (ie. how much for mby) try to read and learn, then you can figure it out yourself from the models. trust me, when and if n ga starts to get in the game, the ga posters will turn on weenie overdrive, and you will see lookout, cheez, foothills, hky etc. posting about it. when they start then pay attention

this is just too far out for the models to be able to tell. the soundings for n ga yesterday were marginal for a lot of places and it was a toss up until the precip started. even if you dont read the models, by paying attention to who is posting and about what location you should be able to figure it out.

and when and if lookout starts honking for ga, get really excited

[WidreMann]

First of all, this is not the end of the "cold period." From what I have seen today, expect the cold air to linger through the New Year. Hell, it's not even officially winter yet!!

Second, it's impossible to pinpoint any exact details at this time. Yes, you are in a favored location right now. Of course, this could change by tonight's runs.

Meteorological winter has already started.

[Amos83]

Thanks Foothills for taking the time to answer my question!

[Weather Czar]

Yes, and I'm thinking this is going to be a big deal because the long wave length that spans the country should allow for a big time ampflification along the east coast somewhere. The block still there argues for the interior southeast roughly, which would place the coastal just inland in GA I think. So keep your eye on future runs. The trough out west stays there. But the flow in Canada is retrograding and that sends alarm bells to me , atleast the Euro is showing that, and opens the door to a rapid developing neg. tilt system. As you know , if you have cold enough air , then neg. tilt systems will turn you to snow, and I could see this turning into a monster snowstorm in the eastern third to eastern half of NC, similar to Jan 2000 but nowhere near those totals. I just like how the next piece phases at exactly the right time to suddenly bomb this , and this particular storm is already much further south than that one (not comparing in anyway to Jan2000--but alluding to the sudden development), so with the overall southerly displacement already, that could allow northeast GA and much of the western Carolnas to get into deformation snow if IF the development would occur just a little sooner, like HKY said.

The main thing I'm keying on with the GGEM and EURO is the long wave length and the backing flow in Canada...That opens the door that the storm could really develop quicker than the models are showing, which would be a huge difference in actual weather for the western edges of the storm. Meaning going from just a grazing to a complete in the heart system with excellent rates and dynamic cooling. Then that would rotate up the east coast. It's a possibility, but i'm not calling for that yet.

the wavelength looks too long, but I don't know. The development could occur further west with the retrograding flow. We'll see though

Robert,Brandon, How much farther west do you think the surface low could track? Thanks

[Weather Czar]

ga usually is screwed with rain so i dont expect that to change. however, the models have sucked big time so i am just waiting to see how it plays out. some indications are that the Low may be in a generally favorable position for snow in n ga - and honestly being in the bullseye this far out is the worst (imho). its rare to have a se snowstorm depicted on the models days out and then have it come to verify. i would rather have one like yesterday with low expectations and end up with a surprise than expect a biggie and get nothing. guess tomorrow evening will be spent watching the models holding out some hope for ga

hopefully we can get some more trends in our favor (i would love a biggie, obviously, but anything 1" or more is great in ga, unless you get an inch an 10 miles away they get 8" )

I think 4-6 woould give you a white Christmas

[strongwxnc]

so americanWX is in

STORM MODE

So please see the top of the page to view the message.

I guess this is like SEP...

[FoothillsNC]

Robert,Brandon, How much farther west do you think the surface low could track? Thanks

I'm just totally speculating but I'd be really suprised to see it get much futher west with appreciable qpf past the TN/NC border. With earlier development it could though. By 12Z runs tomorrow I think we'll be closer to our anwer with where to draw the western cutoff. Its not that far off now, just 60 to 84 hours for the heart of the event for those affected.

[tnweathernut]

Robert,Brandon, How much farther west do you think the surface low could track? Thanks

I am not Robert or Brandon, but if the low goes negative like his diagram shows................this would turn into a very strong system, where western north carolina and east TN would still be in the game. I think a low tracking from the panhandle, through southern GA, and up the banks of the carolinas could yield a good deform band back somewhere over the mountains. They can correct me if I am wrong, but I have seen many decent snows with a track like that here in northeast TN

[HKY18]

I'm just totally speculating but I'd be really suprised to see it get much futher west with appreciable qpf past the TN/NC border. With earlier development it could though. By 12Z runs tomorrow I think we'll be closer to our anwer with where to draw the western cutoff. Its not that far off now, just 60 to 84 hours for the heart of the event for those affected.

it seems to me the slp track isnt the problem its the strength right? i mean that is a classic snow track for most of nc.

[Weather Czar]

I'm just totally speculating but I'd be really suprised to see it get much futher west with appreciable qpf past the TN/NC border. With earlier development it could though. By 12Z runs tomorrow I think we'll be closer to our anwer with where to draw the western cutoff. Its not that far off now, just 60 to 84 hours for the heart of the event for those affected.

Thanks Robert.

[tnweathernut]

it seems to me the slp track isnt the problem its the strength right? i mean that is a classic snow track for most of nc.

Yes it is a classic track for you guys......and strength is yet to be determined. It goes negative earlier and it will be a much bigger deal.

[Weather Czar]

I am not Robert or Brandon, but if the low goes negative like his diagram shows................this would turn into a very strong system, where western north carolina and east TN would still be in the game. I think a low tracking from the panhandle, through southern GA, and up the banks of the carolinas could yield a good deform band back somewhere over the mountains. They can correct me if I am wrong, but I have seen many decent snows with a track like that here in northeast TN

You are right. The track seems very good for us. I would like to see it stronger too. And come just a little farther west.

[oconeexman]

Yes, and I'm thinking this is going to be a big deal because the long wave length that spans the country should allow for a big time ampflification along the east coast somewhere. The block still there argues for the interior southeast roughly, which would place the coastal just inland in GA I think. So keep your eye on future runs. The trough out west stays there. But the flow in Canada is retrograding and that sends alarm bells to me , atleast the Euro is showing that, and opens the door to a rapid developing neg. tilt system. As you know , if you have cold enough air , then neg. tilt systems will turn you to snow, and I could see this turning into a monster snowstorm in the eastern third to eastern half of NC, similar to Jan 2000 but nowhere near those totals. I just like how the next piece phases at exactly the right time to suddenly bomb this , and this particular storm is already much further south than that one (not comparing in anyway to Jan2000--but alluding to the sudden development), so with the overall southerly displacement already, that could allow northeast GA and much of the western Carolnas to get into deformation snow if IF the development would occur just a little sooner, like HKY said.

The main thing I'm keying on with the GGEM and EURO is the long wave length and the backing flow in Canada...That opens the door that the storm could really develop quicker than the models are showing, which would be a huge difference in actual weather for the western edges of the storm. Meaning going from just a grazing to a complete in the heart system with excellent rates and dynamic cooling. Then that would rotate up the east coast. It's a possibility, but i'm not calling for that yet.

the wavelength looks too long, but I don't know. The development could occur further west with the retrograding flow. We'll see though

Get me in the game coach, I'm ready to play! Great disco Robert and thx for the hope and makes sense to me.

[Lookout]

What do you mean here? Central Ga is going to get snow? Or they were going to get snow? If so could N Ga still get snow if this keeps trending west? Thanks

These types of posts are over the top. Read more carefully next time and think before you post, because this type of stuff will not fly here.

[tnweathernut]

You are right. The track seems very good for us. I would like to see it stronger too. And come just a little farther west.

I think you are VERY much in this thing. Not so much here in northeast TN, but still not out of the question here either.

[oconeexman]

ga usually is screwed with rain so i dont expect that to change. however, the models have sucked big time so i am just waiting to see how it plays out. some indications are that the Low may be in a generally favorable position for snow in n ga - and honestly being in the bullseye this far out is the worst (imho). its rare to have a se snowstorm depicted on the models days out and then have it come to verify. i would rather have one like yesterday with low expectations and end up with a surprise than expect a biggie and get nothing. guess tomorrow evening will be spent watching the models holding out some hope for ga

hopefully we can get some more trends in our favor (i would love a biggie, obviously, but anything 1" or more is great in ga, unless you get an inch an 10 miles away they get 8" )

instead of asking the same question over and over (ie. how much for mby) try to read and learn, then you can figure it out yourself from the models. trust me, when and if n ga starts to get in the game, the ga posters will turn on weenie overdrive, and you will see lookout, cheez, foothills, hky etc. posting about it. when they start then pay attention

this is just too far out for the models to be able to tell. the soundings for n ga yesterday were marginal for a lot of places and it was a toss up until the precip started. even if you dont read the models, by paying attention to who is posting and about what location you should be able to figure it out.

and when and if lookout starts honking for ga, get really excited

LMAO about the LOOKOUT part! How true it would be. I totally agree about the bullseye, don't want it till saturday 12Z if then, the last 5 years have burned us bad about the Bullseye 2 days out!! I'll gladly take a deformation zone setup dumping and let central NC have the duration. Just let us in the game....plz

[Gastonwxman]

I'm just totally speculating but I'd be really suprised to see it get much futher west with appreciable qpf past the TN/NC border. With earlier development it could though. By 12Z runs tomorrow I think we'll be closer to our anwer with where to draw the western cutoff. Its not that far off now, just 60 to 84 hours for the heart of the event for those affected.

As do I. We just need to make sure that this system gets its act together, first of all, before deciding to make a run for N. FL. while having the energy phasing early. Maybe then our neck of woods get in on something for sure assuming it all falls into place correctly. Thanks for going into detail regarding the weekend system, btw. I enjoy it when someone takes their time to explain all of the details.

One thing I would like to ask you is regarding the wavelength. When you say that it may be too long, are you saying that it could have negative implications on western development or do you think that the retrograding flow will be able to take care of that issue? Thanks.