WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Are you gonna chase this one? Possibly, depending on how it all shakes out... Would rather get a decent hit here, but temps are to marginal and that is difficult to overcome most of the time, the coastal plain really needs a source of cold air, which is absent. So if the forecast is 33 with RN-SN, yeah I am gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 1008 low in southeast Ga at 60, precip a litte more to the nw side of this now. So 85 could be the cutoff in Western Carolinas. Ugh! Wish it was last Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area. It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GSO west looks good for snow...RDU is on the edge but has lots of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I will be in Charlotte Sat. Please make my 3 yr old happy and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GSO west looks good for snow...RDU is on the edge but has lots of QPF. I like 20 miles WNW of RDU, so maybe I'll be okay. I'm hoping that if the storm trends stronger, although it'll trend closer to the coast, it'll also be able to drawn down colder air from the HP sitting across the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area. It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast. Robert....if I may ask. How does the central portion of SC and east look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area. It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast. That's why you're the MET...it looked great to me at 66 but probably something I'm not seeing..you know untrained eyes and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area. It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast. Hey who knows it came west this run it can come back a little bit more next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 West or East of GSO? GSO west looks good for snow...RDU is on the edge but has lots of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I like 20 miles WNW of RDU, so maybe I'll be okay. I'm hoping that if the storm trends stronger, although it'll trend closer to the coast, it'll also be able to drawn down colder air from the HP sitting across the northern tier. Haha well Robert just pwnd me so sounds like you might be the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area. It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast. Is the NE third of the state even cold enough for SN this run, from what I am reading in the model thread, it looks like RN with a closer to the coast track, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area. It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast. What's interesting is the slp track is pretty ideal for us. I think we're very much in the game. Still 3 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 West or East of GSO? i think he meant east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That's why you're the MET...it looked great to me at 66 but probably something I'm not seeing..you know untrained eyes and all that. Burger does throw precip all the way back to northern mountains ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You got a link to you brothers (snow track research for khy and RDU) I have misplaced it. 3 days off with DE.no trending a little back....... Thanks Brandon! What's interesting is the slp track is pretty ideal for us. I think we're very much in the game. Still 3 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Burger does throw precip all the way back to northern mountains ? All of NC is covered in light QPF..the eastern half is heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All of NC is covered in light QPF..the eastern half is heavier. Thanks Bro ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 this looks good for RDU, although I would like to know where the 0 850 line is at 0Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And SC please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What's interesting is the slp track is pretty ideal for us. I think we're very much in the game. Still 3 days away. And I find it typical that the models underdo the precip on the NW side in this type of system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The west trend starts, now tonight's GFS, Euro, Nam will bring it farther west as the current system gets out of the way and the data starts getting real. I will say that if I was East of the Char. to Triad area I would be happy with this run,because most of you guys are in the game no matter of a west trend or not . Like Robert said it is coming in @ night so you guys in the east have the best chance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well looks like nothing wintery here in NEGA (Athens) We will get our chance some day. Just as a note, the weather channel has showers with a low of 27 ON CHRISTMAS EVE. TO0 FUNNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Extracted data gives clt close to half an inch of frozen precip(near as I can tell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The west trend starts, now tonight's GFS, Euro, Nam will bring it farther west as the current system gets out of the way and the data starts getting real. I will say that if I was East of the Char. to Triad area I would be happy with this run,because most of you guys are in the game no matter of a west trend or not . Like Robert said it is coming in @ night so you guys in the east have the best chance right now. Yes, I also expect a west trend from here. I would be willing to bet that the storm actually ends up providing a decent snow for the west part of NC up into VA, but that the eastern part of the state gets mostly rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Robert....if I may ask. How does the central portion of SC and east look? too late on the cold getting in there. This is a case where cold is arriving about everywhre at the exact same time the moisture is arrriving everywhere. So I think it looks like the best lift and rapidly developing moisture shield is leaving the 85 corridor and growing becaue the s/w is strongly amplifying. This will cause 850s to crash nicely and support snow in areas east of CLT to RDU around late afternoon or most likley darkfall. Overnight its literally showing a pretty big hit for the eastern third of NC. AT 66 RDU is right on the line of being cold enough aloft but with that ampl. on the coast, I think the temps would crash there while its cold enough with dynamic lift. Really its about this way for the track of the whole storm through n. Ga across nrn. SC and much of NC, speaking of how the temps could be affected by dynamic cooling. I haven't seen but a few panels of the 2m temps yet, but those aren't that trustworthy. eastern NC is still too warm aloft , but eventually they'll cooldown overnight and get wraparound snow. Qpf: about .40" (estimating from along 85 til just east of CLT, then rapid increase after there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And I find it typical that the models underdo the precip on the NW side in this type of system I was thinking that as well. This is really a run we want to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You got a link to you brothers (snow track research for khy and RDU) I have misplaced it. 3 days off with DE.no trending a little back....... Thanks Brandon! I can't find it either. You may have to message him. I know that the ideal track for us is pretty close to what the euro has. I am pretty excited to see this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You have to be really careful with ptypes on the euro because we can't get full soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Trending nicely! My update http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/as-ice-snow-winds-down-today-more-snow-possible-saturday-evening-night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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