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Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)


WeatherNC

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Are you gonna chase this one?

Possibly, depending on how it all shakes out... Would rather get a decent hit here, but temps are to marginal and that is difficult to overcome most of the time, the coastal plain really needs a source of cold air, which is absent. So if the forecast is 33 with RN-SN, yeah I am gone!

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Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

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GSO west looks good for snow...RDU is on the edge but has lots of QPF.

I like 20 miles WNW of RDU, so maybe I'll be okay. I'm hoping that if the storm trends stronger, although it'll trend closer to the coast, it'll also be able to drawn down colder air from the HP sitting across the northern tier.

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Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

Robert....if I may ask. How does the central portion of SC and east look?

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Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

That's why you're the MET...it looked great to me at 66 but probably something I'm not seeing..you know untrained eyes and all that.

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Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

Hey who knows it came west this run it can come back a little bit more next run :thumbsup:

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Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

Is the NE third of the state even cold enough for SN this run, from what I am reading in the model thread, it looks like RN with a closer to the coast track, thanks!

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Well the big winner in my opinion on this Euro is stil going to be further east. RDU should be able to get a good one and points east. The eastern half of the state gets the benefit of having the best moisture and lift arrive at dark and overnight, and the cold aloft should support snow there. Dynamics really begin to kick in quickly as you can see that surface low go from 1012 over northern Florida to 1008 coastal GA and then really crank up near Wilmington. 996mb off Outer Banks with the shortwave almost neg. tilt, great throwback on top of the main overrunning snows for Raleigh to eastern area.

It then explodes off Jersey, so this is a major nor'easter probably. Its a western trend for sure, all about timing where it amplifies, but if I were east of CLT in central to eastern especially the northeastern Third of NC I'd sure like the looks of this. For areas areound GSP to CLT to AVL and HKY we're on the back end. We're not out , but certainly not anything like what transpires downeast.

What's interesting is the slp track is pretty ideal for us. I think we're very much in the game. Still 3 days away.

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The west trend starts, now tonight's GFS, Euro, Nam will bring it farther west as the current system gets out of the way and the data starts getting real. I will say that if I was East of the Char. to Triad area I would be happy with this run,because most of you guys are in the game no matter of a west trend or not . Like Robert said it is coming in @ night so you guys in the east have the best chance right now.

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The west trend starts, now tonight's GFS, Euro, Nam will bring it farther west as the current system gets out of the way and the data starts getting real. I will say that if I was East of the Char. to Triad area I would be happy with this run,because most of you guys are in the game no matter of a west trend or not . Like Robert said it is coming in @ night so you guys in the east have the best chance right now.

Yes, I also expect a west trend from here. I would be willing to bet that the storm actually ends up providing a decent snow for the west part of NC up into VA, but that the eastern part of the state gets mostly rain out of this.

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Robert....if I may ask. How does the central portion of SC and east look?

too late on the cold getting in there. This is a case where cold is arriving about everywhre at the exact same time the moisture is arrriving everywhere. So I think it looks like the best lift and rapidly developing moisture shield is leaving the 85 corridor and growing becaue the s/w is strongly amplifying. This will cause 850s to crash nicely and support snow in areas east of CLT to RDU around late afternoon or most likley darkfall. Overnight its literally showing a pretty big hit for the eastern third of NC. AT 66 RDU is right on the line of being cold enough aloft but with that ampl. on the coast, I think the temps would crash there while its cold enough with dynamic lift. Really its about this way for the track of the whole storm through n. Ga across nrn. SC and much of NC, speaking of how the temps could be affected by dynamic cooling. I haven't seen but a few panels of the 2m temps yet, but those aren't that trustworthy. eastern NC is still too warm aloft , but eventually they'll cooldown overnight and get wraparound snow.

Qpf: about .40" (estimating from along 85 til just east of CLT, then rapid increase after there.

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You got a link to you brothers (snow track research for khy and RDU) I have misplaced it.

3 days off with DE.no trending a little back.......

Thanks Brandon!

I can't find it either. You may have to message him. I know that the ideal track for us is pretty close to what the euro has. I am pretty excited to see this trend.

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