FoothillsNC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 850 low is gone at 48. Need a little more gulf development and sharper trough here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At 36hr, it looks to me like the nam is going to pop a storm farther west than the last few runs. More ridging in front of the wave. more energy diving into the backside, and it has slowed down a little bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Weird things happening in this pattern that keeps its "anti-snow" guns aimed right at western SC and southern NC. So far we've had a good strong northeast Vortex which keeps cold air in the east. A couple of times now it looked like much of NC would get snow from systems that have trended north . But the storm a couple weeks ago trended south with time (remember the one that gave a few flurries to the deep south- actually came a little north late). So some things are trending north , some are south, just depends on the strength and timing of the cold pressing south. All the Apps and points west have had some decent snow showers and now the good glazing in ATL to BHM regions, plus their numerous snow showers. Central and northern and eastern NC have had snow and ice twice now. Looks like my region to CLT is about the one spot that can't get much in this pattern, except brief token flakes or pellets, but nothing really. Its possible that the southern and eastern sections south of here could get backside snows Saturday night, and if that happens the big donut hole will be squarely on top of me and Burgers region . We need some Gulf development , even though usually it comes at the expense of cold air. Sigh, winter weather lovers here have a hard time. Now is the winter of our discontent. At least the pattern seems to be locked down which is one of those double edge swords. We get chances but if we keep missing out it's almost worse then not having the chances at all. Guess I'm a sadist though so it works out. If this thing makes a bullseye for the east I might just make a drive and chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At 51 our moisture is certainly more west and north of the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is a much better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The problem now is our 850's are wanting to straddle I-40 but hey it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Picking up on something maybe in Central MS.AL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is a much better run. Yep almost night and day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Start....Yes it is. The night and day runs should tell us.. To get the paint cans out and start throwing $hit on the wall. Maybe we will understand then The problem now is our 850's are wanting to straddle I-40 but hey it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The problem now is our 850's are wanting to straddle I-40 but hey it's a start. More WAA from a stronger/farther north storm, i would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 sims loks like a lot more orecip than last run ? even some in tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 More WAA from a stronger/farther north storm, i would assume. 850's are dropping a little bit, that's the biggest worry we get the trend and then it's too warm for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Soundings are keeping me under 0 so far.. That is at KFQD Never mind that. 850's are around 0.4... The problem now is our 850's are wanting to straddle I-40 but hey it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Bingo at 60 our 850 drops into Ft. Mill...light precip into NC with a gap in Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Bingo at 60 our 850 drops into Ft. Mill...light precip into NC with a gap in Central NC. Anything for the southwestern MTNs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Using SV? Bingo at 60 our 850 drops into Ft. Mill...light precip into NC with a gap in Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run is looking good boys and girls. SFC temps verbatim aren't there but our 850's are low enough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Using SV? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The problem now is our 850's are wanting to straddle I-40 but hey it's a start. Rather have that than than plenty of cold with no moisture at all, though. If you don't have any moisture, then you definitely aren't getting any snow. I like this run a lot better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Loving the trends so far!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run is looking good boys and girls. SFC temps verbatim aren't there but our 850's are low enough . 850 is the freezing line correct? How low are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 00 ec and the 12z nam have trended nw..........85h has really increased on this run over nc xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 500 level at 54 is bending alot more then the 06 run.... Move this current system on and lets roll kiddies!! Loving the trends so far!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At 66 850 line is running GSP to Monroe to around Rocky Mt. in Eastern NC. Much better run for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 850 is the freezing line correct? How low are we talking? It's the freezing line at 850 mb or around 5,000 ft. (850 mb is the point at which you are below 85% of the atmosphere and above 15% of it). Sea level average is 1013 mb, I think. Generally, the 850 mb line is a good gauge to use to determine whether you will get rain or snow, but it's possible that there are warm pockets at other levels of the atmosphere, plus the surface may not be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At 66 RDU looks good both SFC and 850's for snow...most of the good moisture is south and east though but the trend is our friend for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Low five at ya.. 850 is the freezing line correct? How low are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Golly gee, the NAM says even Atlanta will see some sprinkles at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Here's @ 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Surface looks better but the 500 map is much worse. No digging and everything further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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