WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:44 AM, eyewall said: Out to 72 and shows most of the MA and NE with a near miss except for Cape Cod perhaps. Anyway as for us I am hoping to even squeeze out a light accumulation at the back end but my confidence is certainly lower than average. 850 low will obviously be a major issue. That will be an issue here too... For the central coastal plain, i.e. mby, we would want a track along the NC SC boarder exiting the coast around Onslow Bay, not Hatteras, given this plausible scenario. Obviously a more favorable track would be a bombing 850 through GA to off ILM, but that does not happen. Still think this looks like a NE NC and SE VA, OTS special. Central NC could do well, but given the setup, it is going to be real hard here without a fresh source of cold air, as the maritime influence via WAA leads to another cold air chasing the precip type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:55 AM, NCSNOW said: That Jan 2000 was a prime example of the metrics you stated above. Ask the folks back down from Charlotte to Atlanta about how isolated heavy snow was, then expanded NE throughout that day. Some horror stories on here of posters withing 1/2/ hour drive from their back yard with nothing, to places that where getting thumped as everything was phasing together that day. Unfortunately we have nothing like the cold that storm had to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:54 AM, Rankin5150 said: On 12/17/2010 at 2:44 AM, eyewall said: Out to 72 and shows most of the MA and NE with a near miss except for Cape Cod perhaps. Anyway as for us I am hoping to even squeeze out a light accumulation at the back end but my confidence is certainly lower than average. 850 low will obviously be a major issue. For you my brotha, if I do not get any snow, I at least will be rooting for you dude!! HAPPY (early) Birthday!!! Thank you and yeah I may end up having to chase this bad boy in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:59 AM, eyewall said: Thank you and yeah I may end up having to chase this bad boy in the end. Car door is still open, thinking NE NC atm, but still have 36 hrs to work out the details. Even Roanoke Rapids, but still highly fluid and have no clue atm, but looking like a prime Dec chase candidate here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still sounds like the lack of a PNA ridge is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know I'm not one to really believe in jinxes...but the radio show...the 0z NAM... Really, the show is actually quite good. It's nice to hear folks unplugged about a potential upcoming event. Hope the Euro can save the day once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:02 AM, Queencitywx said: Still sounds like the lack of a PNA ridge is killing us. That has been the case all Dec. The flow is too flat for anything major. Oh man i miss the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:55 AM, NCSNOW said: That Jan 2000 was a prime example of the metrics you stated above. Ask the folks back down from Charlotte to Atlanta about how isolated heavy snow was, then expanded NE throughout that day. Some horror stories on here of posters withing 1/2/ hour drive from their back yard with nothing, to places that where getting thumped as everything was phasing together that day. BY The way the airport at Greensboro is still sitting at 32 degrees. Never went above freezing today. Im at 34. While fayetteville and hour and half away is in the 50's. Schools on a 2hour delay w/option to close. Still Ice in slush piles on the roads when I come home from High Point at 5;00 this afternoon. That 2000 storm had a sharp cutoff. Here in Jonesville I got a foot while Pacolet less than 10 miles away got less than an inch. Will never forget that day I long as I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 WeatherNC I would love to my problem is I have a music booking that night so I may have to race NE after that unless we are getting any kind of hit here. We shall see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:11 AM, jshetley said: That 2000 storm had a sharp cutoff. Here in Jonesville I got a foot while Pacolet less than 10 miles away got less than an inch. Will never forget that day I long as I live. I'll never forget it here either...maybe an inch with 4" in E Gastonia and up to 10" SE of Belmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:11 AM, jshetley said: That 2000 storm had a sharp cutoff. Here in Jonesville I got a foot while Pacolet less than 10 miles away got less than an inch. Will never forget that day I long as I live. man thats something. I had maybe 1" that day, I was working Grover where it snowed all day (near BlacksburgSC) and went home to shelby and they had less. We never had the cold surface temp, it stayed right at 33 all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:57 AM, eyewall said: Unfortunately we have nothing like the cold that storm had to work with. Very true. I was just giving an example of when a phase first starts to unfold, like that storm, you get a heavy very small Isolated area of dynamics that produce very localized precip rates, then as NC weather stated they tend to expand from that point on. It's preliminary, but I think if you draw a line from 85 my area over to you then through the northern coastal plain and points north is where someone should be the big benneficiary as of right now. Benneficiary may mean only one who sees any snow fall/mix in or go to the extreme and get thumped if things come together just right. This is subject to change because there will be a very sharp cutoff in precip. I'd say you for once ATM, may be in just the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 2:57 AM, eyewall said: Unfortunately we have nothing like the cold that storm had to work with. It wasn't that cold, IIRC. We were in the upper 20s to near 30 during the snow. Before the snow started, the temps were actually up into the upper 30s with light rain. After the storm, the sun came out and it rose to 36 degrees with two feet on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think DT just hit it on the head for us NC folks this weekend. Might just be too warm for folks in the CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:15 AM, FoothillsNC said: man thats something. I had maybe 1" that day, I was working Grover where it snowed all day (near BlacksburgSC) and went home to shelby and they had less. We never had the cold surface temp, it stayed right at 33 all day. I dont think Gaffney had much either, but I know other parts of Cherokee county close to my county got pounded. Would have been nice if that storm had got more of the foothills in it I know. Only bad thing was that we had no power for 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 get'em DAN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:20 AM, burgertime said: I think DT just hit it on the head for us NC folks this weekend. Might just be too warm for folks in the CLT area. I'm honestly not worried about temps, we just need the precip to hold them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:21 AM, strongwxnc said: get'em DAN!!! Gawd...I sound like such a southern redneck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:16 AM, WidreMann said: It wasn't that cold, IIRC. We were in the upper 20s to near 30 during the snow. Before the snow started, the temps were actually up into the upper 30s with light rain. After the storm, the sun came out and it rose to 36 degrees with two feet on the ground! Yeah not very cold at all to start that storm. Was barely below freezing here until the storm was almost gone. Snow fall so hard it didnt matter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sounds normal to me man. On 12/17/2010 at 3:22 AM, Marion_NC_WX said: Gawd...I sound like such a southern redneck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:22 AM, Marion_NC_WX said: Gawd...I sound like such a southern redneck!!! all them yankee voices I'm hearin are killin me, good to hear one of our fellow southerners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:22 AM, Marion_NC_WX said: Gawd...I sound like such a southern redneck!!! Between you and Boston we could have had a civil war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:23 AM, strongwxnc said: Sounds normal to me man. The radio show has been very multi-cultural....I laughed at that damn yankee who spoke before me and I'm sure he did the same when I got on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:20 AM, burgertime said: I think DT just hit it on the head for us NC folks this weekend. Might just be too warm for folks in the CLT area. I think he's off base with that comment. Big issue will be lack of precip IMO. If you had pretty good precip rates, would overcome marginal temps with a rapidly strengthening system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 RGEM is OTS. Not a good start tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No good news in the RGEM, to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here comes the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 800 lb gorilla in the room is phasing early vs. phasing late. The RGEM being out to sea is definitely not a good start for our NC bretheren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:16 AM, WidreMann said: It wasn't that cold, IIRC. We were in the upper 20s to near 30 during the snow. Before the snow started, the temps were actually up into the upper 30s with light rain. After the storm, the sun came out and it rose to 36 degrees with two feet on the ground! Very true I guess my recollection of that part is a little hazy in terms of temps. We had 21" after good soaking prior to the changeover here but it certainly did plunge the night after due to that snow cover and its wake . I have a very early morning so I won't see the 0z GFS etc. until then. take care and I hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 3:02 AM, Queencitywx said: Still sounds like the lack of a PNA ridge is killing us. Yea, that Gulf of Alaska low seems like it has been sitting there for the past month... and none of the models break it down in the long range. Another thing I've noticed this fall/winter is the complete absence of baja cut off lows.... it seems like we had a dozen or more of those last winter. It was just a matter of if they would eject at the right time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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