Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[WeatherNC]

To keep things in order, and there proper place, all disco on the weekend storm threat and potential should go here.

[eyewall]

Yeah we should probably lock up the December 14th and onward thread. Anyway obviously a less phased solution at 0z and no hookup with the MN piece. Less amplification all around so the energy from the upper midwest never gets there as it hangs on the SW side of the PV. One thing we need to consider is the weak STJ as our good friend SBUWX23 reminded me of it in a FB chat. This may be the culprit in the model bouncing around on the phasing. Euro is next.

[NCSNOW]

To keep things in order, and there proper place, all disco on the weekend storm threat and potential should go here.

Better, hopefully this will keep things clear throughout the week. Hope you saw my question in the other thread. Thanks

[NCSNOW]

Yeah we should probably lock up the December 14th and onward thread. Anyway obviously a less phased solution at 0z and no hookup with the MN piece. Less amplification all around so the energy from the upper midwest never gets there as it hangs on the SW side of the PV. One thing we need to consider is the weak STJ as our good friend SBUWX23 reminded me of it in a FB chat. This may be the culprit in the model bouncing around on the phasing. Euro is next.

I'm suprised w the northern peice showing up so late to the party, how we get such a wet surface reflection. Like you said the stj is weak. I can hardly locate the peices to the puzzle on the 500mb charts. Also I've never known the GFS to handpick and stick with a phased storm this far out.

[BIG FROSTY]

What time will the cmc be out ? I going to bed if it's not real soon.

[eyewall]

I'm suprised w the northern peice showing up so late to the party, how we get such a wet surface reflection. Like you said the stj is weak. I can hardly locate the peices to the puzzle on the 500mb charts. Also I've never known the GFS to handpick and stick with a phased storm this far out.

Yeah and on my weenie side I would like a decent hit for my bday or to see this thing take off east for Europe and leave me out of the rain LOL. I really don't want a second consecutive bday screw job (bday is sunday).

[Weather Czar]

What time will the cmc be out ? I going to bed if it's not real soon.

Just saw it out to 72 and the flow looks too flat. It looks like a weak wave that will just slide off the NC coast.

[BullCityWx]

If nothing else, that looks more like the ensembles.

[burrel2]

I think the key for me to have any chance of getting snow from this storm is what happens with that piece of energy coming out of the plains. What I need is for that piece of energy be stronger and drop down further south that what the GFS is currently showing.

Notice how the GFS only brings that energy to Northern GA, while the nogaps drops that energy all the way down to Southern Mississippi. The energy is also significantly stronger on the Nogaps. I think that's why the Nogaps crashes 850 temps so much faster than the GFS.

Does that make sense? Or am I way off?

[BIG FROSTY]

Just saw it out to 72 and the flow looks too flat. It looks like a weak wave that will just slide off the NC coast.

Thanks, That should do it for now. lol

[xwx]

Yeah we should probably lock up the December 14th and onward thread. Anyway obviously a less phased solution at 0z and no hookup with the MN piece. Less amplification all around so the energy from the upper midwest never gets there as it hangs on the SW side of the PV. One thing we need to consider is the weak STJ as our good friend SBUWX23 reminded me of it in a FB chat. This may be the culprit in the model bouncing around on the phasing. Euro is next.

Bingo...no phase at all....trough to broad across eastern seabd......and the block is a little to far south on the sat/sunday storm......The first storm just might make that block rectgde north just enough to allow the trough to dig further south and let the energy in the northwest play catch up..........Timing...

xwx

[xwx]

I think the key for me to have any chance of getting snow from this storm is what happens with that piece of energy coming out of the plains. What I need is for that piece of energy be stronger and drop down further south that what the GFS is currently showing.

Notice how the GFS only brings that energy to Northern GA, while the nogaps drops that energy all the way down to Southern Mississippi. The energy is also significantly stronger on the Nogaps. I think that's why the Nogaps crashes 850 temps so much faster than the GFS.

Does that make sense? Or am I way off?

the ship model has been wrong 10 straight years (nogaps)

[HKY18]

00z gfs ensemble mean is west of op. usually the ensemble is east of op so........

[rduwx]

I think the phase chances are getting slim. The euro and ggem have showed this type of solution for a few runs now. Now you see the gfs going that way also. It'll be interesting to see if the euro holds true tonight.

[POWERSTROKE]

Thanks, That should do it for now. lol

well some of us have to work out in the cold tomorrow and will be out all night tomorrow night, so off to bed we go

[burrel2]

the ship model has been wrong 10 straight years (nogaps)

I'm not using it as a forecast tool. Just as an example of what needs to happen for a snowier solution.

[xwx]

00z gfs ensemble mean is west of op. usually the ensemble is east of op so........

BASE THE FORECAST OFF A MIX OF ENSEMBLE AND OP RUNS

xwx

[TheVille]

Can someone explain what this "phase" is for us non-weather people?

[WeatherNC]

I'm suprised w the northern peice showing up so late to the party, how we get such a wet surface reflection. Like you said the stj is weak. I can hardly locate the peices to the puzzle on the 500mb charts. Also I've never known the GFS to handpick and stick with a phased storm this far out.

You think you guys would get screwed with a phase around Jax/Sav? I guess if it went negative youd get throwback Warm air of the Atlantic. Where is the benchmark so to speak for Gville up to RWI on miller A tracks?

Can't find the graphic from NC State atm, but around 150 miles offshore, and somewhat variable as it is a function of strength, trajectory, and air mass (i.e. the cold) in place. If it went negative, over the mississippi, it would likely ride the coast, surging in a warm nose into interior SC and NC, not just the coastal sections, as the low deepened, but possibly a good hit for WNC. For us, we would want a FL Panhandle track, and a system not all that strong. I understand your point about drawing in more cold air with a stronger system, but from where? We have no parent high in this setup, the air is just modified and stale. A greater degree of phasing would make the warming even more of an issue, and we saw that on previous runs where a bombing low was heading up the eastern seaboard along the baroclinic zone just offshore.

[xwx]

I'm not using it as a forecast tool. Just as an example of what needs to happen for a snowier solution.

understood........navy and the ggem are progressive models also.........good post btw

xwx

[BullCityWx]

00z gfs ensemble mean is west of op. usually the ensemble is east of op so........

No.

[NCSNOW]

Sitting at 14, calm wind and DP of 3. Gonna hit single digits for sure tonight. Will be coldest of year for me.

Anyway one good thing is GFS keeps the cold funneling down all the way out after weekend event. As I go to bed I still have the euro and JMA on my side. But I can tell the turning point of this game is gonna be the northern stream sending down the match to ignite the fire. Guranteed more twist and turns to come throughout the week. As they say in weenie land never trust the gfs from day 3-5. But 2 consecutive runs of the Euro inside 5 and you can start barking.

[xwx]

Can someone explain what this "phase" is for us non-weather people?

A comination of 2 systems to create a big one............stj and northern jet...........or u can have a triple phase with the polar jet as well

xwx

[TheVille]

A comination of 2 systems to create a big one............stj and northern jet...........or u can have a triple phase with the polar jet as well

xwx

Thanks,

And how does this affect this upcoming system?

[NCSNOW]

Can't find the graphic from NC State atm, but around 150 miles offshore, and somewhat variable as it is a function of strength, trajectory, and air mass (i.e. the cold) in place. If it went negative, over the mississippi, it would likely ride the coast, surging in a warm nose into interior SC and NC, not just the coastal sections, as the low deepened, but possibly a good hit for WNC. For us, we would want a FL Panhandle track, and a system not all that strong. I understand your point about drawing in more cold air with a stronger system, but from where? We have no parent high in this setup, the air is just modified and stale. A greater degree of phasing would make the warming even more of an issue, and we saw that on previous runs where a bombing low was heading up the eastern seaboard along the baroclinic zone just offshore.

Thanks, Hopefully we can all cash in together one day. Possible, but hard to do with our geographic region (NC 600 or so miles east-west).

[rduwx]

Can someone explain what this "phase" is for us non-weather people?

I explained a northern stream and southern stream phase here. It's about halfway down the page. There are other types of phases but this is one.

[TheVille]

I explained a northern stream and southern stream phase here. It's about halfway down the page. There are other types of phases but this is one.

So it's basically where the two streams combine?

[eyewall]

nice subheader:

[rduwx]

So it's basically where the two streams combine?

Yep

[WeatherNC]

Can someone explain what this "phase" is for us non-weather people?

From LC

Phasing is the combination of two systems to create a larger, potent, nasty, in some cases bad boy type of system.

in this case, we are referring to a piece of energy at 500mb (vortmax) dropping into the long wave trough and amplifying it

example of what to look for on an H5 map...