Impact Briefing from Derecho Event from NWS

[Parsley]

IF you started using sirens for Severe thunderstorms you would run into the same problems of people ignoring it. Also, when you live in a town where if the wind is blowing a certain direction you can't even hear the sirens go off, i don' think sirens are the answer. Gaurentee 80% of the people would still think the siren was for the FD even if you had different tones for weather/fires etc.

Have you heard the Limerick Plant sirens? Nothing like a fire siren. Not even close. If something was ever implented and residents were told (mailed info.), Siren A was a fire siren and Siren B (different sounding) was a severe weather siren I'd hope people would have a high enough IQ to understand the difference. From a cost perspective, no way in hell new sirens would ever pass budget for such a set-up, I'm sure of that. I still feel like any other way to help alert the public even if only a small amount listen for sirens would be helpful.

[Boch23]

Have you heard the Limerick Plant sirens? Nothing like a fire siren. Not even close. If something was ever implented and residents were told (mailed info.), Siren A was a fire siren and Siren B (different sounding) was a severe weather siren I'd hope people would have a high enough IQ to understand the difference. From a cost perspective, no way in hell new sirens would ever pass budget for such a set-up, I'm sure of that. I still feel like any other way to help alert the public even if only a small amount listen for sirens would be helpful.

Yeah but your talking about the people that don't know the difference between a watch and a warning. No I have not heard them but I would imagine they sound like Drexel Hill fire siren only louder. I'm not disagreeing it wouldn't help just pointing out issues. And i believe money would be the biggest obstacle.

[Parsley]

Yeah but your talking about the people that don't know the difference between a watch and a warning. No I have not heard them but I would imagine they sound like Drexel Hill fire siren only louder. I'm not disagreeing it wouldn't help just pointing out issues. And i believe money would be the biggest obstacle.

Yeah, in the end it all comes down to public knowledge and readiness. If the general public doesn't want to take the time to understand the weather warnings and the threats then they are at fault (or should be) when something goes wrong.

[Grothar]

re: electrical grid warnings...peco, et al have private meteorologists...they usually aren't relying on the NWS (although they may look at their information and data...PECO, PPL, Met Ed to my knowledge either use an in house met or they contract out. Their private meteorologist(s) should be the ones keeping tabs on that stuff and giving the proper "heads up" on any potential issues.

there's no need to confuse the public and issue tornado warnings for straight line winds...they can't figure out the difference between the two as it is...they'll think every episode of straight line winds from a run of the mill severe storm is a tornado. Tornadoes can do a lot worse in a localized area than EF-1...that may only mute the impact of tornado warnings down the line.

I do think that sirens should go if a warning is either PDS, extreme, very severe in addition to tornado.

I disagree with the straight line winds issue. If you read my post, I said only for derecho storm events and the other specific weather phenomena. Please tell those residents in Washington DC without power right now if some sort of preparedness would have helped them in their current power outage. I was without power for five days with the Halloween storm event and if I would have even a slight inkling that it was going to be that bad within the PPL grid system, I would have prepared much better. As far as an in house meteorologist- you mean Accu weather? What a joke? They rely on NWS warnings - so you are telling me that you believe private meteorologists warnings as a company? Not me if I was a CEO of that company and I believe everyone on this board would agree with me that official warnings come from the NWS- not Accu weather or others? The heads up Power grid warnings that I exampled are meant to be for municipalities, residents and businesses from the NWS. I am saying that PJM and other utility companies need to work even closer with the NWS like exampled in their briefings before issuing this type of warning. Millions of people rely on the power grid of PJM and its about time they issue warnings for large and severe storm events. I can only imagine if we experienced a Carrington type event now, then people would be more conscious of how electrical dependent we really are and far more destructive than a tornado, hurricane or derecho a long term power outage really is.

[MGorse]

The biggest problem is currently there is no differentiation (or too hidden in the body of the warning) between the severe thunderstorm warning that knocks down four large tree limbs and the one that knocks out power to 3/4ths of a county. Mesoscale modeling has improved with the mcs(s), the problem is there is still a lack of run to run continuity especially when your churning that HRRR out every hour. But, they are not there yet and when the mcc does not make the right hand turn toward the more unstable air, you get a 20% pop with a 67% outage number. Lost in all of this the more consistent modeling of mcs(s) across the heart of the PHI CWA on Saturday evening never materialized.

I will respectfully disagree with you about the overnight timing, I believe the potential number of deaths and injuries would have been higher if this occurred at 5 pm on a getaway Friday afternoon with everyone driving around all over the place. Too many people ignore severe thunderstorm warnings which brings us back to sentence number one.

Also have to keep in mind that the warning forecaster can always add wording to the preformatted convective warnings. This should definitely be the case when the convection has a history or is expected to produce significant weather that may be above what is typically expected. Sometimes I think the regular preformatted (canned) phrasing that gets loaded into the warning text gets stale. I understand that in the heat of the battle, the warnings need to be issued quick but adding a line describing the situation or beefing up some more key words may add value for at least some users and help to convey the threat.

[MGorse]

As far as an in house meteorologist- you mean Accu weather? What a joke? They rely on NWS warnings - so you are telling me that you believe private meteorologists warnings as a company? Not me if I was a CEO of that company and I believe everyone on this board would agree with me that official warnings come from the NWS- not Accu weather or others? The heads up Power grid warnings that I exampled are meant to be for municipalities, residents and businesses from the NWS.

Perhaps I am not completely understanding your post, but the private sector does issue their own warnings. These are for their paying clients, which have set criteria established by the client themselves. The criteria can vary quite a bit depending on the clients needs. I issued numerous warnings to clients when I worked at AccuWeather.

[Grothar]

Perhaps I am not completely understanding your post, but the private sector does issue their own warnings. These are for their paying clients, which have set criteria established by the client themselves. The criteria can vary quite a bit depending on the clients needs. I issued numerous warnings to clients when I worked at AccuWeather.

You are right Mike but many of those private meteorologists have criteria that may not hold up in court if needed. I am saying that PJM should initiate a joint meeting and not necessarily the NWS to help resolve this problem. A private meteorologist may have his thoughts and recommendations on issuing a warning (Accu -Weather issues many warnings for winter road conditions to contracted municipalities and PennDOT) but that like saying a private geologist for natural gas driller company is going to dictate to the USGS on a volcano eruption warning. Electrical grids systems and forecasting power utilization have now become even more synonymous with weather forecasts and warnings from the NWS regional offices. I would compare the PJM office equally important for regional utility and energy field as Mt Holly and Upton are for the NWS field. Thats why I urge more communication and an enhanced warning system that the public can understand and take seriously and that could be derived from both offices putting their heads together. I would suggest a joint meeting with them in their underground bunker in Montgomery County to see how weather plays a vital role in their switching operations and to the public perception of how important maintaining the electrical grid system is to everyone. Many people to not know that if it was not for PJM in 2003, PA would have been without electricity in 2003 great blackout and a cascading complete electrical system failure though out the US would have occurred

[phlwx]

As far as an in house meteorologist- you mean Accu weather? What a joke?

Peco has their own meteorologists in-house that they pay...and it's not accuweather. So does PJM...again, in-house...it's their girl. They don't pay the weatherpeople to push thumbtacks and sit on AmericanWX forums all day...

I disagree with the straight line winds issue. If you read my post, I said only for derecho storm events and the other specific weather phenomena. Please tell those residents in Washington DC without power right now if some sort of preparedness would have helped them in their current power outage. I was without power for five days with the Halloween storm event and if I would have even a slight inkling that it was going to be that bad within the PPL grid system, I would have prepared much better.

Do you think 6 hours as opposed to 60 minutes would have made a hill of beans of difference with preparedness? The only impact the "timing" element has is on loss of life and hunkering down. Granted, there were casualties but there probably would have been casualties even if there were DAYS of notice.

Gotta remember...the issues with power are not the grids necessarily -- although there are spots where the grid got knocked back a bit...it's trees that knocked out poles in the neighborhood and wind damage that blew out equipment...stuff that no level of preparedness is going to end up changing.

That's why you have to be prepped regardless of disaster...it's common sense...have a few days worth of dry goods/nonperishables/a case of water in the house and be prepped just in case. It's not going "doom and gloom" but everyone should have some sort of backup regardless. Changing the warn time from minutes to an hour isn't going to lower the number of customers without power...you have guys from Canada doing the restoration work with local crews since the demand for recovery is as high as it is.

[MGorse]

You are right Mike but many of those private meteorologists have criteria that may not hold up in court if needed. I am saying that PJM should initiate a joint meeting and not necessarily the NWS to help resolve this problem. A private meteorologist may have his thoughts and recommendations on issuing a warning (Accu -Weather issues many warnings for winter road conditions to contracted municipalities and PennDOT) but that like saying a private geologist for natural gas driller company is going to dictate to the USGS on a volcano eruption warning. Electrical grids systems and forecasting power utilization have now become even more synonymous with weather forecasts and warnings from the NWS regional offices. I would compare the PJM office equally important for regional utility and energy field as Mt Holly and Upton are for the NWS field. Thats why I urge more communication and an enhanced warning system that the public can understand and take seriously and that could be derived from both offices putting their heads together. I would suggest a joint meeting with them in their underground bunker in Montgomery County to see how weather plays a vital role in their switching operations and to the public perception of how important maintaining the electrical grid system is to everyone. Many people to not know that if it was not for PJM in 2003, PA would have been without electricity in 2003 great blackout and a cascading complete electrical system failure though out the US would have occurred

Hold up in court? It is not the private meteorologists who have the criteria, it is the companies themselves that have established criteria and therefore the private weather company warns based on that. The criteria is most likely established based on what it would take to start causing issues for the infrastructure for which it is set for.

To help reduce power interruptions during severe weather, the power supply would have to be buried underground. This would eliminate trees and lightning bringing down the wires and poles. However burying powerlines in the ground probably brings other issues like maintenance and more cost when replacing them since it would have to be dug up.

[soadforecaster]

any way some one could post a radar loop of the derecho moving through the area?

[phlwx]

any way some one could post a radar loop of the derecho moving through the area?

Here are two.

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2012/07/radar-loops-of-derecho-event.html

[Grothar]

Hold up in court? It is not the private meteorologists who have the criteria, it is the companies themselves that have established criteria and therefore the private weather company warns based on that. The criteria is most likely established based on what it would take to start causing issues for the infrastructure for which it is set for.

To help reduce power interruptions during severe weather, the power supply would have to be buried underground. This would eliminate trees and lightning bringing down the wires and poles. However burying powerlines in the ground probably brings other issues like maintenance and more cost when replacing them since it would have to be dug up.

Agree. The cost of maintenance of the infrastructure for the power grid is fast becoming more expensive then generating the power itself , especially with the abundance of natural gas in PA now . The last PPL request rate hike was for its distribution costs, not generating costs. Thats why I believe so strongly that a power grid warning should be issued by the government rather than a utility company when it comes to any destructive storm event that can greatly influence the way people and businesses live and operate before and after the actual storm event. Did you know that only two people came to the last PUC meeting on the most recent PPL rate hike that was for its distribution costs? When the power was out in Emmaus, Macungie and Western Lehigh County from the October storm for five days, it was the main line towers that were the problem with snow collapsing the trees and trees falling on the towers. PPL is spending millions of dollars upgrading their system as we speak. Public schools were closed and emergency shelters were set up for days. Severe thunderstorm warnings, ice storm warnings and winter storm warnings maybe not strong enough warning language to get the point across in certain storm events. When you informl the public they may not have power for days, then they perk up and listen. Realistically the only ones that know how serious you are when you issue a warning are the ones who are usually adequately prepared for the resulting damages or the possibility of damage to their property.

[Grothar]

Peco has their own meteorologists in-house that they pay...and it's not accuweather. So does PJM...again, in-house...it's their girl. They don't pay the weatherpeople to push thumbtacks and sit on AmericanWX forums all day...

Do you think 6 hours as opposed to 60 minutes would have made a hill of beans of difference with preparedness? The only impact the "timing" element has is on loss of life and hunkering down. Granted, there were casualties but there probably would have been casualties even if there were DAYS of notice.

Gotta remember...the issues with power are not the grids necessarily -- although there are spots where the grid got knocked back a bit...it's trees that knocked out poles in the neighborhood and wind damage that blew out equipment...stuff that no level of preparedness is going to end up changing.

That's why you have to be prepped regardless of disaster...it's common sense...have a few days worth of dry goods/nonperishables/a case of water in the house and be prepped just in case. It's not going "doom and gloom" but everyone should have some sort of backup regardless. Changing the warn time from minutes to an hour isn't going to lower the number of customers without power...you have guys from Canada doing the restoration work with local crews since the demand for recovery is as high as it is.

Wait a minute? I said nothing about the time element in my original post- where do you come up with this? Minutes means lives in any storm event from tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, tsunami warnings to wind chill warnings etc. My suggestion to an electrical grid warning would prepare the general public for the possibility of a long term power outage that may or may not occur- thats it.

[Boch23]

Agree. The cost of maintenance of the infrastructure for the power grid is fast becoming more expensive then generating the power itself , especially with the abundance of natural gas in PA now . The last PPL request rate hike was for its distribution costs, not generating costs. Thats why I believe so strongly that a power grid warning should be issued by the government rather than a utility company when it comes to any destructive storm event that can greatly influence the way people and businesses live and operate before and after the actual storm event. Did you know that only two people came to the last PUC meeting on the most recent PPL rate hike that was for its distribution costs? When the power was out in Emmaus, Macungie and Western Lehigh County from the October storm for five days, it was the main line towers that were the problem with snow collapsing the trees and trees falling on the towers. PPL is spending millions of dollars upgrading their system as we speak. Public schools were closed and emergency shelters were set up for days. Severe thunderstorm warnings, ice storm warnings and winter storm warnings maybe not strong enough warning language to get the point across in certain storm events. When you informl the public they may not have power for days, then they perk up and listen. Realistically the only ones that know how serious you are when you issue a warning are the ones who are usually adequately prepared for the resulting damages or the possibility of damage to their property.

Your comparing Snow storms which could have anywhere up to 4 days notice to this Derecho (or any thunderstorm complex) which at most would have been 6 hours. Your "grid warning" may be viable for winter not thunderstorms. What are you going to have people do, scramble to grocery stores sit in lines for hours and have people risk getting caught outside in it? The panic that would ensue from a warning that says you could lose power for days would be worse then the panic for a foot of snow around here.

[Amped]

I got a Mobil alert for the Flash Flood warning but not the Severe Tstorm Warning. Who do I report this too?

[MGorse]

Agree. The cost of maintenance of the infrastructure for the power grid is fast becoming more expensive then generating the power itself , especially with the abundance of natural gas in PA now . The last PPL request rate hike was for its distribution costs, not generating costs. Thats why I believe so strongly that a power grid warning should be issued by the government rather than a utility company when it comes to any destructive storm event that can greatly influence the way people and businesses live and operate before and after the actual storm event. Did you know that only two people came to the last PUC meeting on the most recent PPL rate hike that was for its distribution costs? When the power was out in Emmaus, Macungie and Western Lehigh County from the October storm for five days, it was the main line towers that were the problem with snow collapsing the trees and trees falling on the towers. PPL is spending millions of dollars upgrading their system as we speak. Public schools were closed and emergency shelters were set up for days. Severe thunderstorm warnings, ice storm warnings and winter storm warnings maybe not strong enough warning language to get the point across in certain storm events. When you informl the public they may not have power for days, then they perk up and listen. Realistically the only ones that know how serious you are when you issue a warning are the ones who are usually adequately prepared for the resulting damages or the possibility of damage to their property.

I would hope that the power companies do look for and receive the NWS warnings, even if they have a private company service or their own meteorologists.

[phlwx]

Wait a minute? I said nothing about the time element in my original post- where do you come up with this? Minutes means lives in any storm event from tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, tsunami warnings to wind chill warnings etc. My suggestion to an electrical grid warning would prepare the general public for the possibility of a long term power outage that may or may not occur- thats it.

Grid warnings are completely unnecessary. You can "word" the appropriate warning with "potential for (widespread) power outages" and cover exactly what you're looking to do.

Don't need to overkill and hype up the public further...throwing an "electrical grid" warning out there only leads to confusion.

The warning system in place needs some tweaking but it doesn't need whole new warnings...

[dryslotted]

Grid warnings are completely unnecessary. You can "word" the appropriate warning with "potential for (widespread) power outages" and cover exactly what you're looking to do.

Don't need to overkill and hype up the public further...throwing an "electrical grid" warning out there only leads to confusion.

The warning system in place needs some tweaking but it doesn't need whole new warnings...

I agree with what you've said here about "electrical grid" warnings confusing the public, but I was thinking that a High Wind Warning in addition to the SVR might help get people's attention around extreme impacts to infrastructure like power and roads...You could still include the proper language in the SVR as you mentioned, but the HWW would illustrate that this event is not just another run of the mill t-storm. I think the public does not typically know about or take SVRs very seriously, just basing off of friends, family and co-workers...

[phlwx]

I agree with what you've said here about "electrical grid" warnings confusing the public, but I was thinking that a High Wind Warning in addition to the SVR might help get people's attention around extreme impacts to infrastructure like power and roads...You could still include the proper language in the SVR as you mentioned, but the HWW would illustrate that this event is not just another run of the mill t-storm. I think the public does not typically know about or take SVRs very seriously, just basing off of friends, family and co-workers...

One of the things that's always humored me with the winter squall line that gets a svr warning attached to it when there's no lightning with the line as it moves through. Shows there's no real "clean" way to assign warnings and that there's going to be some "muck" to the process of warnings.

Personally, I think adding a "very" or "extremely" in front of severe may be enough... The key is not to over saturate the types of warnings for storms and to keep it simple while delivering the message of what the storm is capable of doing. Too many types of warnings = overkill.

I think what can/should be done is add appropriate wording within the warning...and I think the local NWS offices on the East Coast need to have greater latitude to describe what the storm can/will do (i.e. this storm has a history of widespread wind damage and power outages are possible/likely in the warned area).

Example from the Central Region...this is a pretty good start, IMO:

602

WUUS53 KDLH 030212

SVRDLH

MNC001-017-021-061-075-115-137-WIC007-013-031-030300-

/O.NEW.KDLH.SV.W.0087.120703T0212Z-120703T0300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

912 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

CARLTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

EASTERN ITASCA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

NORTHEASTERN PINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

NORTHERN BURNETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 908 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM FAIRBANKS TO PALMERS TO STURGEON LAKE...AND MOVING

EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

DUXBURY...HARLIS...PATZAU AND FOXBORO AROUND 920 PM CDT.

MARKVILLE...KINGSDALE...CLOVERTON AND DANBURY AROUND 925 PM CDT.

RIVERSIDE...COZY CORNER...SPLIT ROCK LIGHTHOUSE STATE PARK AND

WENTWORTH AROUND 930 PM CDT.

FINLAND...DAIRYLAND AND SILVER BAY AROUND 935 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE

ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN

ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT

IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON

THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

I think if you add a bit more verbage to it to describe the potential for power outages, downed trees/power lines I think you have enough 'there' there to make the warnings more effective.

This was one of the warnings out of Sterling for the derecho on Friday night...it shows the "verbage" issue I'm talking about...there's very little to the description other than it's a dangerous line of storms. Would love to see what's being done in the Central region adopted nationally...

808

WUUS51 KLWX 300134

SVRLWX

MDC001-013-021-031-043-VAC043-061-069-107-153-171-187-840-WVC003-037-

065-300230-

/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0116.120630T0134Z-120630T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

934 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

EASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 931 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPOHRS CROSSROADS TO GREENWOOD

TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF STEPHENS CITY...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF

QUARTERS AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SPRUCE PINE HOLLOW...

SLEEPY CREEK...

INWOOD...

BERRYVILLE...

MARTINSBURG...

DELAPLANE...

WILLIAMSPORT...

BLUEMONT...

SHEPHERDSTOWN...

THE PLAINS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE

INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS

SAFE TO DO SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3908 7731 3879 7765 3893 7833 3945 7830

3973 7833 3972 7708

TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 266DEG 53KT 3977 7822 3946 7816

3903 7819

$$

[SouthernNJ]

Mt. Holly is usually one of the better East Region Offices for wording.

I believe everyone remembers this storm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

256 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WILMINGTON...

SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WEST CHESTER...

DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF

WEST CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

PAOLI AND VALLEY FORGE AROUND 310 PM EDT...

KING OF PRUSSIA AROUND 315 PM EDT...

RADNOR TOWNSHIP...TROUT LAKE...NEWTOWN SQUARE AND BROOMALL AROUND

320 PM EDT...

NARBERTH...BRYN MAWR AND MORRIS PARK AROUND 325 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A

STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

KRUZDLO

[Rainshadow]

Also have to keep in mind that the warning forecaster can always add wording to the preformatted convective warnings. This should definitely be the case when the convection has a history or is expected to produce significant weather that may be above what is typically expected. Sometimes I think the regular preformatted (canned) phrasing that gets loaded into the warning text gets stale. I understand that in the heat of the battle, the warnings need to be issued quick but adding a line describing the situation or beefing up some more key words may add value for at least some users and help to convey the threat.

I just think most people's attention span are getting shorter all the time and if its not in the actual product header it doesn't get there.

[Rainshadow]

Mt. Holly is usually one of the better East Region Offices for wording.

I believe everyone remembers this storm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

256 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WILMINGTON...

SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WEST CHESTER...

DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF

WEST CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

PAOLI AND VALLEY FORGE AROUND 310 PM EDT...

KING OF PRUSSIA AROUND 315 PM EDT...

RADNOR TOWNSHIP...TROUT LAKE...NEWTOWN SQUARE AND BROOMALL AROUND

320 PM EDT...

NARBERTH...BRYN MAWR AND MORRIS PARK AROUND 325 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A

STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

KRUZDLO

Was that the one that blew the tarp off of Citizen Bank?

[SouthernNJ]

Was that the one that blew the tarp off of Citizen Bank?

That would be the one. Many around this subforum have it as their

favorite storm. The winds were measured at 75 MPH at KPHL, a

top 3 all-time gust. A couple million in damage across Delaware

and Philadelphia counties. Hurricane force winds sweeping through

CBP, sending the tarp and other objects flying. Chester and Gloucester

counties were also hit hard. One fatality in a tent in Shamong/Atsion

area when a tree fell on it (sounds familiar).

[SouthernNJ]

I just think most people's attention span are getting shorter all the time and if its not in the actual product header it doesn't get there.

I was always a fan of the warnings issued by you and Mike for the very reason

of "improv wording". I always thought that it was essential if a storm was more than

just an ordinary severe storm. However, after a year of looking back upon

things, I believe it does not make as big a difference as I once thought. Mainly

because of the "if its not in the product header it doesn't get there" idea.

I studied the fatality-inducing severe events around the US, and used the

mesonet site to match the warnings and their text to the events, and found

the "extremely dangerous/life threatening/or very dangerous storm with a

history of producing damage" wording used in many of the fatality events.

At the same time, looked at the run-of-the-mill severe/tornado warning texts

and saw that some devastating storms and tornadoes had little strong

wording, but no fatalities.

As you had mentioned, most people in this busy world want things quickly,

and don't pay attention to the important details. If they see a Severe Warning,

they will either act or not act depending upon what their normal procedure is

and not think anything else of it. That being said, there are many emergency

managers out there that use the warnings very effectively to save as many

lives as possible, such as the people at CBP on 6/24. The ground crew

leader in charge of safety mentioned that "the NWS was calling for 70 MPH

winds, looked pretty close to me". They saw the enhanced warning and

with the stadium PA system began evacuating well before the storm arrived.

Mt. Holly seems to have a great rapport with the local EM's, and I consider

myself grateful to live in such an area.

[dryslotted]

That would be the one. Many around this subforum have it as their

favorite storm. The winds were measured at 75 MPH at KPHL, a

top 3 all-time gust. A couple million in damage across Delaware

and Philadelphia counties. Hurricane force winds sweeping through

CBP, sending the tarp and other objects flying. Chester and Gloucester

counties were also hit hard. One fatality in a tent in Shamong/Atsion

area when a tree fell on it (sounds familiar).

I watched this from my office 39 floors up, which faces south towards CBP. It really did look as if the Four Horsemen were going to come galloping out of the clouds. It had been so dry leading up to that day, that you could see the dust flying off of the rooftops across the city as the winds kicked up. I had never seen a storm so severe from that perspective, it was quite an unforgettable experience...

[Parsley]

Since this video popping up all over the place now.....

Obviously NWS warnings were out well in advance of these nasty storms from a few days ago, but that's alot of people on the boardwalk still (along with people stuck on the skyride). Sounds like in the video you can hear a warning over the speakers telling people to get off the beach. A little late isn't it????

My point: There is only so much the NWS and SPC can do to get the word out to the public.

[Rainshadow]

Don't want to hear the patented reply "it struck with little or no advance warning", Seaside Heights is within the southeast part of the warning polygon, they got the most advanced warning of nearly anyone in this specific warning. That being said we have to get people to respond quicker to these storms, our job is not done when the warning is issued.

[Parsley]

That being said we have to get people to respond quicker to these storms, our job is not done when the warning is issued.

I guess the issue is who is liable in situations like this? You don't have to pay to walk on the boardwalk, but you do have to pay to use the beach. I'm guessing a warning (in appropriate time) should have gone out to beachgoers (townships responsibility?). Similar case with those who would have been at a place like Great Adventure in Jersey. I hope a warning went out well in advance of the incoming storms (theme park responsibility?).

[HM]

Don't want to hear the patented reply "it struck with little or no advance warning", Seaside Heights is within the southeast part of the warning polygon, they got the most advanced warning of nearly anyone in this specific warning. That being said we have to get people to respond quicker to these storms, our job is not done when the warning is issued.

I thought the warnings Saturday were very good and timely. The situation with Seaside is their problem and obviously the people who operate that ridiculous "ride" would have been held accountable if she got hurt.

This year seems to be exposing a lot of touchy, vulnerable areas in our system of communicating severe weather to the public.

[LMolineuxLM1]

I thought the warnings Saturday were very good and timely. The situation with Seaside is their problem and obviously the people who operate that ridiculous "ride" would have been held accountable if she got hurt.

This year seems to be exposing a lot of touchy, vulnerable areas in our system of communicating severe weather to the public.

It's the fricken media companies fault in my opinion. That's TV/FM stations they don't step it up and help out in giving the timely warnings right that are provided by the NWS it's a fricken scroll people don't want to read it, they want it read to them, so the tv stations and fm stations need to flash cut in with some on the air staff to get the warnings out better thus helping the nws. The NWS did their job perfect.