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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread V


Typhoon Tip

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yes most likely you will see at least a couple lol

ill be up in milton,nh wednesday then n conway /jackson area thursday.

bliz you should check out this area called "dana's bath" it a short flat hike/walk and then the water and the falls are gorgeous ....swimmable even. and also arethusula falls a bit further w on the 302 ...bout 10 mins past attitash is another beautiful spot. more of a hike....mile or so to get to but lovely. also catherdral ledge (can be driven up ) is quite a site and i hope you grab breakfast at that nice lil spot just past the covered bridge in jackson.

I have been there like 7 times since last fall. If u were in better shape I'd hike washington w u on thurz

Diana's Bath

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It doesn't look like an MCS will engineer its self tonight... The current closest resemblance to one is diving SSE through western PA, while weakening. Yet the 00z NAM has convective QPF during the early morning hours across much of SNE, but its not MCS.

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It doesn't look like an MCS will engineer its self tonight... The current closest resemblance to one is diving SSE through western PA, while weakening. Yet the 00z NAM has convective QPF during the early morning hours across much of SNE, but its not MCS.

We're just going to have to see how everything is looking come the AM. The models all show a pretty decent sized precip field moving through during the AM so we'll see if that occurs or not. It wouldn't completely surprise me if the majority of people see nothing but we'll likely have some showers activity around which will actually be good.

Anyways though if the models aren't handling the MCS track right then pretty much everything might be screwed up.

The good news is the 21z SPC SREF did bump up severe probs over much of southern NH into central/eastern MA and into extreme NE CT.

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We're just going to have to see how everything is looking come the AM. The models all show a pretty decent sized precip field moving through during the AM so we'll see if that occurs or not. It wouldn't completely surprise me if the majority of people see nothing but we'll likely have some showers activity around which will actually be good.

Anyways though if the models aren't handling the MCS track right then pretty much everything might be screwed up.

The good news is the 21z SPC SREF did bump up severe probs over much of southern NH into central/eastern MA and into extreme NE CT.

Probably because there's likely less contamination and more pure SB CAPE that way - not sure though.

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Bust here tonight... I didn't expect a lot, but only a few meager sprinkles so far.... LOL It looks like some activity fired up when east of here. The parched situation continues.....

We're just going to have to see how everything is looking come the AM. The models all show a pretty decent sized precip field moving through during the AM so we'll see if that occurs or not. It wouldn't completely surprise me if the majority of people see nothing but we'll likely have some showers activity around which will actually be good.

Anyways though if the models aren't handling the MCS track right then pretty much everything might be screwed up.

The good news is the 21z SPC SREF did bump up severe probs over much of southern NH into central/eastern MA and into extreme NE CT.

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Models do blossom precip over the region during the overnight timeframe but everything is gone by 15z...not really much out there now and if nothing of significance does develop tonight and with the MCS tracking to our south have to wonder what that means for tomorrow. Models are pretty meh with crappy lapse rates and such. Would like to stay up for the new day 1 but pretty tired. Guess I could just go to sleep and if I wake up at some point I can just check from my phone.

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Happy 4th everyone! Let's at least get a nice SNE evening for fireworks out of this sorry fail...

post-3106-0-90010300-1341386193_thumb.gi

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED W-E BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS CROSSED LK

ERIE...AND IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN OH/NWRN PA ATTM. WITH MODEST

DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS REMAIN

CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL. THIS

LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE

ACROSS CENTRAL PA TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

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:facepalm:

...ERN U.S. FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND

VICINITY WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE COAST BY THE START OF THE

PERIOD. LATER/SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL

LIKELY BE GENERALLY NON-FOCUSED/DISORGANIZED...BUT OCCURRING ACROSS

AN EXPANSIVE AREA WITHIN NWLY/NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE ERN FRINGE OF

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM PA

SWD...EXPECT STORMS TO BE PULSE IN NATURE -- WITH INTENSITY/ISOLATED

SEVERE POTENTIAL DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

THUS...A LARGE/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA WILL BE ISSUED THIS

PERIOD COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY E OF THE MS RIVER.

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lol ... tough call as I enjoy my job. Thought about heading west to Winnipesaukee or Squam to get out of the rain sooner but will just stick with the original plan.

enjoy, seems to be a hit or miss threat of isolated showers, hopefully they remain light and diminish quickly.

lol

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Scooter, looks like these showers now in NH will be gone by 8-9:00 . Sound about right? Then we have some fun later thus afternoon

Yeah sorry I forgot to answer your text yesterday. I just realized that..lol.

I think you'll see some storms later, but a little unsure if they will be really strong or just sct strong stuff. Still, would think after 3 or 4 up there..especially if there is a good amount of sun.

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Yeah sorry I forgot to answer your text yesterday. I just realized that..lol.

I think you'll see some storms later, but a little unsure if they will be really strong or just sct strong stuff. Still, would think after 3 or 4 up there..especially if there is a good amount of sun.

Lol no prob at all. Ryan didn't answer me either. Skies are already bright up here in Jackson with just some light showers. Sun hopefully out by 9 or 10. Storyland today . Fireworks tonite wx permitting
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Some needed light/mod rain in here with what looks like a bit of heavy rain to end things within the next couple hours. I don't expect any storms to impact the fireworks down here in Boston, looks like an ideal scenario as far as I'm concerned. Get enough rains to give the plants a decent drink then sun, beer, burgers, dogs and fireworks.

I'm thinking of watching the Boston fireworks from Larz Anderson Park, anyone ever been there to see them? I hear it's quite popular and was wondering about the parking situation.

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