Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread V

[weatherwiz]

Meh...no June 1st of last year. Reminds me more of june 6th in 2010...crappy destabilization and clouds hurt our chances...but we'll see over the next 24 hours. The shear is good, but it was amazing on June 6th that year and we got almost nothing anywhere. One weak rotation cell west of HFD.

Not entirely sure I'd call nearly 3000 J/KG of Cape at BDL crappy

Especially with helicity right around 250 m2s2.

Anyways though, this certainly is no 6/1 setup. Shear though just under 30 m/s isn't all that bad though. I would think though with the wind alignment we'd see storm mode favor supercell or multicell rather than linear...6/6/10 I believe shear vectors and alignment favored more in the way of linear mode with embedded supercells.

[weatherwiz]

Well time for bed...will wake up around 5:30 to look at 6z stuff/3z SPC SREF before I head into work around 7.

[ORH_wxman]

Not entirely sure I'd call nearly 3000 J/KG of Cape at BDL crappy

Especially with helicity right around 250 m2s2.

Anyways though, this certainly is no 6/1 setup. Shear though just under 30 m/s isn't all that bad though. I would think though with the wind alignment we'd see storm mode favor supercell or multicell rather than linear...6/6/10 I believe shear vectors and alignment favored more in the way of linear mode with embedded supercells.

That's what 6/6/10 showed though too. Mostly a function of obscene dewpoints. 00z time frame shows 80/72 there. Maybe that happens, but even if it does, are we going to get good storms with a lot of cloud cover?

We might. You are also wrong about 6/6/10...we had helicity of like 800, lol. The low level shear was off the charts. If we break out into sunshine, I think it can be good, but I'm doubting that right now...maybe tomorrow it will look better. I got excited about 36 hours before 6/1 last year when it looked like we'd have no destabilzation issues.

[weatherwiz]

That's what 6/6/10 showed though too. Mostly a function of obscene dewpoints. 00z time frame shows 80/72 there. Maybe that happens, but even if it does, are we going to get good storms with a lot of cloud cover?

We might. You are also wrong about 6/6/10...we had helicity of like 800, lol. The low level shear was off the charts. If we break out into sunshine, I think it can be good, but I'm doubting that right now...maybe tomorrow it will look better. I got excited about 36 hours before 6/1 last year when it looked like we'd have no destabilzation issues.

Helicity was certainly high on 6/6/10 but everything developed into too much of a line...perhaps there was just too much forcing and with little to no cap in place that just allowed for storms to blow up everywhere and they just formed a line? Plus with all that convection around updrafts are going to battle one another.

Let's just hope this MCS comes through as early as possible and gets the hell out of here as soon as possible...the quicker and sooner the better our chances are.

0z GFS actually doesn't look too bad at all! Boosted instability and while not as impressive with the shear it looks a bit better and even more in the way of directional shear.

[Dsnowx53]

Yeah wind fields aren't overly impressive but b/c of the directional shear being modeled by the NAM we have some decent hodos...this may lead to more in the way of big hail producers (if this pans out) rather than tornadic potential given the weaker wind fields

Yeah usually you want a 50 knot wind somewhere in your sounding for a tornado...usually at 500mb. Though when I chased in Wyoming we were able to get it done with very weak upper level winds, but we had nice low level SE winds which caused upslope...and also lots of directional shear which was key. If the surface winds are due south, that could provide some low level veering which is great. But still for tornadoes I'd like to see either a bit stronger upper level winds, or a hint of the surface winds turning even slightly east of south. It's really not too far off though.

As long as we can get the winds at 700mb to also be WNW, that's definitely good for hail.

[Dsnowx53]

The 0z NAM has nuts instability but then again it also has near mid 70's dewpoints.

Lots of 0-3km helicity with a very solid amount of 0-1km helicity.

The NAM and GFS often overdid the moisture several times on my storm chasing trip.

[N. OF PIKE]

_{interesting that there has been some convection dropping thru central new england for the last few hours and is no in the merrimac valley at 1am.}

_{very suprised to see convection going at this hour. radar shows .3 to 1.0 inches over small swath cutting se toward KCON tonite with .1 to .3 in greater area and period of hvy rain heading for extreme NE mass/SE NH}

[wxsniss]

Slight risk removed...

...NERN STATES...

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF

THE NERN U.S. WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF WARM

FRONT. MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO WARM SECTOR IN WAKE

OF THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE

PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY FURTHER MITIGATE

DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING IN WAKE OF

EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IS REGION EARLY IN THE

PERIOD...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR IN

WAKE OF THIS FEATURE MUCH OF THE DAY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH

WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NEWD ENGLAND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT

WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN STATES DURING THE EVENING. DEEPER

FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT MOSTLY NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS LESS LIKELY TO RECOVER. THE EARLY

STORMS...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF

IMPULSES LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DESPITE THE LIMITING FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN

THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE

MOST UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND

AHEAD OF THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT. GREATEST THREAT MAY BE FROM ERN

PA..INTO NY AND A PORTION OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEPER ASCENT

FROM SEWD MOVING WAVE WILL AT LEAST GLANCE THE WARM SECTOR WHERE

FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR TO HAVE UNDERGONE SUBSIDENCE

IN MID LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AND POTENTIAL LIMITING

FACTORS...PREFER TO HANDLE WITH 5% SEVERE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...A SLIGHT RISK MIGHT NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED IN LATER

UPDATES.

[CoastalWx]

Still looks rather messy tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

Blizzy might get some storms up north I think.

[Damage In Tolland]

Blizzy might get some storms up north I think.

Just in from sweaty run..Really pushed it today.

Looks like the MCS misses us up there tomorrow morning thankfully and might be SNE mess to deal with.

Afternoon does look wild up there. Strongest wind fields are up there over NNE.

Hopefully damaging storms will be around..but I'd like them to hold off till late afternoon please

[CoastalWx]

Just in from sweaty run..Really pushed it today.

Looks like the MCS misses us up there tomorrow morning thankfully and might be SNE mess to deal with.

Afternoon does look wild up there. Strongest wind fields are up there over NNE.

Hopefully damaging storms will be around..but I'd like them to hold off till late afternoon please

It's not very clear, but I think NNE could get some good ones later on in the day. Good s/w moving through. No so much here.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's not very clear, but I think NNE could get some good ones later on in the day. Good s/w moving through. No so much here.

Hopefully everyone gets in on it. Sometimes these things look better as you get closer

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully everyone gets in on it. Sometimes these things look better as you get closer

I actually am a little intrigued about tonight down here. Euro has a good s/w coming through. My worry is that the storms may be more towards NYC.

[All Wet]

Just in from sweaty run..Really pushed it today.

Looks like the MCS misses us up there tomorrow morning thankfully and might be SNE mess to deal with.

Afternoon does look wild up there. Strongest wind fields are up there over NNE.

Hopefully damaging storms will be around..but I'd like them to hold off till late afternoon please

The weenie-wannabe in me wants to have "damaging storms"; the rather larger part of me that's partial to having electricity will pass, thank you.

[CT Rain]

Just looking over things briefly but tomorrow could be an impressive event if things come together as some of the models show. It's going to be a tricky forecast though. One area I like is Vermont, actually.

[NJwinter23]

Blah for me in NJ..Winds suck down here..you guys still have a shot up there if you can destabilize, with ~ 30 kts 0-6km shear being forecast.

Otherwise i'm moving on to Saturday afternoon.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would think that whatever materializes will be rather isolated wrt it being severe

Nothing widespread, but ain't it always that way?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Blizzy might get some storms up north I think.

Mountain boomers are the best

[CoastalWx]

Just looking over things briefly but tomorrow could be an impressive event if things come together as some of the models show. It's going to be a tricky forecast though. One area I like is Vermont, actually.

Yeah VT and NH...well most of NNE I guess could get it good.

[HM]

Blah for me in NJ..Winds suck down here..you guys still have a shot up there if you can destabilize, with ~ 30 kts 0-6km shear being forecast.

Otherwise i'm moving on to Saturday afternoon.

Agreed. All this activity is going to do is get in the way of any outdoor plans for the 4th.

Saturday is still far away but I'd like to see some improvement as we get closer to the event. Once again I find myself screaming, "give me a freagin wind max anywhere!"

[wxsniss]

Box AM AFD in case anyone missed it:

Independence day...

A large amount of the forecast depends on the outcomes during the

morning period. Envision two possible outcomes:

One...convective complex sweeps across the region into midday. Clouds

and attendant rains diminish the destabilization potential

/especially over central and eastern New England/. There would be low

chances of wet weather /lower moreso of convection/ during the afternoon into

evening period. Subsidence to the rear of the expected complex would keep

the region for the most part dry.

Two...convective complex approaches quickly...the bulk of which

remains S and east of the forecast area. While convective debris will

likely linger...it should diminish during the day allowing for the

destabilization of the atmos profile across the interior ahead of an

approaching cold front. Severity of any convection is in question...

but nevertheless afternoon showers and thunderstorms would be expected

and possibly persist into the evening hours.

Not expecting anything severe with the morning complex. Am leaning

moreso towards the second solution as the convective complex dissipates

allowing for a second round of convection during the afternoon period. Will

invoke chance probability of precipitation for the period...nothing likely as there is a fair amount

of uncertainty with the spatial and temporal specifics of convection.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I would think that whatever materializes will be rather isolated wrt it being severe

Nothing widespread, but ain't it always that way?

Today I don't see anything materializing in the SNE area, Tomorrow could be a different animal. I think right now I'd favor central/western areas up into VT and NH for the best storms.

[dryslot]

Mountain boomers are the best

They are, With all that elevation it puts you closer to the action...............

[CoastalWx]

NAM isn't too exciting around here tomorrow. Our best shot if any, might be from the nightime complex. I'm not ruling out aftn stuff, but the best appears to be north closer to that second s/w.

[NJwinter23]

Agreed. All this activity is going to do is get in the way of any outdoor plans for the 4th.

Saturday is still far away but I'd like to see some improvement as we get closer to the event. Once again I find myself screaming, "give me a freagin wind max anywhere!"

I hope we can get something good..I dont see another ring of fire/EML advection opportunity in the near future with the ridge shifting west.

[CT Rain]

NAM isn't too exciting around here tomorrow. Our best shot if any, might be from the nightime complex. I'm not ruling out aftn stuff, but the best appears to be north closer to that second s/w.

Yeah ugly on the NAM. Looks like some ridging builds in behind the morning MCS and heights actually rise through most of the day. We'll probably remained capped.

It's all about the Quebec s/w.

[Mr Torchey]

Hopefully we get a good light show in the predawn hours and independence day is high and dry, who the heck wants all the fireworks, parties and fun times ruined>?

[wxsniss]

Hopefully we get a good light show in the predawn hours and independence day is high and dry, who the heck wants all the fireworks, parties and fun times ruined>?

Pretty much what 12z nam shows... "scenario 1" from the Box AFD... the least exciting solution we've seen on the nam yet. Morning MCS stays organized, clears eastern SNE by 10am-noon and all of SNE is dry thereafter.

[radarman]

NAM isn't too exciting around here tomorrow. Our best shot if any, might be from the nightime complex. I'm not ruling out aftn stuff, but the best appears to be north closer to that second s/w.

Rough night for campers.

It's a lot faster with the line, and that would suggest more sunshine during the day out here. Probably won't be easy to destabilize, even given sunshine, but it is early July after all. Forcing and CAPE are decoupled. What else is new? Deserves low probs, but I could see a 5% tornado contour by mid afternoon if everything broke right.