weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Wednesday is a big mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I think Wednesday looks decent right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 At 9pm last night took in all of my outdoor furniture expecting a big show here in BOS. Woke up to a dust bowl. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 At 9pm last night took in all of my outdoor furniture expecting a big show here in BOS. Woke up to a dust bowl. WTF I don't think it ever looked good for this area. Got the old 7/10 split with storms over the Cape and up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 .22 fell yesterday late afternoon/early evening with pretty steady light to moderate rains. Hopefully that moistened the soil a bit before the 1am torrential rains, thunder and very vivid lightning came through. .38 total with that storm (rainfall rate of 3.82/hour at 12:57am). Two day total (over an 8 hour period) is .60 of very much needed rain. Monthly total to date here is 1.11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 .22 fell yesterday late afternoon/early evening with pretty steady light to moderate rains. Hopefully that moistened the soil a bit before the 1am torrential rains, thunder and very vivid lightning came through. .38 total with that storm (rainfall rate of 3.82/hour at 12:57am). Two day total (over an 8 hour period) is .60 of very much needed rain. Monthly total to date here is 1.11 You guys have had a decent season this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 There is a chance some activtiy could fire today over parts of NNE and maybe ern MA near seabreeze front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 .11 yesterday. The drought worsens by the day and worse..sprinklers have to be fired up daily now. Wednesday looks meh..could be dry fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 any wind damage in Darien, trees bending to the brink should have brought down some weak stuff, calling my cousin now who is noroton heights volunteer, hope everything is ok down there. Plenty actually. Several limbs down on West ave the train station in New Canaan is closed because of trees down. I'm sure other areas look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Tuesday looks like a WeatherWiz special... BTV already has the enhanced wording in the forecast. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUES AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...WITH NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. NAM PLACES CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG WITH 0 TO 6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL JET. IN ADDITION...JET STRUCTURE WOULD SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZNS WL BE IN RRQ OF DEPARTING 25H JET OF 80 TO 90 KNOTS ON TUES EVENING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...WL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LVL HGHT FALLS ARE OBSERVED AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS OUR CWA. SPC HAS PLACED OUR CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. WL MENTION ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL...WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO. GIVEN...THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS...THINKING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WL BE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW THRU 500MB...WITH MOST OF THE SHEAR CAUSED BY CHANGING WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT. NAM SOUNDING AT MSS SHOWS PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 40 KNTS...700MB WINDS OF 50S...AND 500MB WINDS NEAR 60 KNTS. GIVEN...WIND PROFILES AND RELATIVE HIGH WBZ HGHTS AROUND 13KFT...THINKING PRIMARY THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER JET WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM A WEAK LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WWD TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 00Z. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY FARTHER W INTO WRN WI AND MN. AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL TRANSPORT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EWD IN A CORRIDOR PRECEDING THE FRONT...RESULTING IN AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE W...AN UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NRN CA AND SRN ORE. THIS LOW WILL HELP KEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...ENHANCING DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. ...LAKE ONTARIO EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND... DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ARRIVE RELATIVELY LATE IN THE DAY. FORCING WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL TREK FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO ME BY EARLY EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE...WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 50-60 KT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IF CELLS CAN BOW. IF THE FRONT MOVES SLOWER THAN FORECAST AND ARRIVES AFTER SUNSET...A SEVERE THREAT WILL STILL EXIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Wednesday looks like another widespread convective / electric day with marginal (at best) shear parameters from southern New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. I am sure there will be isolated SIG SVR with a nice smattering of reports but nothing we'll remember (except for the local towns that get the SIG SVR). There is a decent juxtaposition of shear / CAPE from NE PA into CT so I suppose an organization in the north will keep the threat going well into the evening / night for areas south of the best shear. Going to be a typical summertime FROPA for this area. I don't mean to sound blah about it but I don't see anything remarkable yet on the data. It still will be lots of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Wednesday looks like another widespread convective / electric day with marginal (at best) shear parameters from southern New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. I am sure there will be isolated SIG SVR with a nice smattering of reports but nothing we'll remember (except for the local towns that get the SIG SVR). There is a decent juxtaposition of shear / CAPE from NE PA into CT so I suppose an organization in the north will keep the threat going well into the evening / night for areas south of the best shear. Going to be a typical summertime FROPA for this area. I don't mean to sound blah about it but I don't see anything remarkable yet on the data. It still will be lots of fun. I'm just happy if I get rain. Pretty dry in the BOS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I'm just happy if I get rain. Pretty dry in the BOS area. Yeah I understand. El Nino to the rescue? I got a beautiful show last night. Strong thunderstorms blasted through C NJ and brought quite a lightning show with a nice downpour/gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I'm just happy if I get rain. Pretty dry in the BOS area. yeah i'm not exactly expecting severe - just think storms have a chance to survive. could be some decent rainers and a good light show. wind fields are decent as well so maybe that's an added concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 by-the-way...ryan, your posts in the old thread were spot on...imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Yeah I understand. El Nino to the rescue? I got a beautiful show last night. Strong thunderstorms blasted through C NJ and brought quite a lightning show with a nice downpour/gusty winds. Yeah that was a good show there. Check out ACK...they gusted to 38kts in that! Pretty good for the island. I like the look for this area Wednesday...maybe more so over CT and RI..but I won't get too picky. These fronts settling south usually are good to I-90 and points south. If the front is slow enough, temps will be quite hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 yeah i'm not exactly expecting severe - just think storms have a chance to survive. could be some decent rainers and a good light show. wind fields are decent as well so maybe that's an added concern. Yeah agreed. Tired of watering shrubs along with garden/flowers etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 It's an interesting day to me. The lower trop convergence axis associated with cool fropa will be aligned more W-E then the typical N-S orientation. Storm motion may be ESE/SE - so relative shear may be exaggerated some in having SW flow out ahead. Not sure what the deep layer shear offers, but the skin-deep analysis looks intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I like the look for this area Wednesday...maybe more so over CT and RI..but I won't get too picky. These fronts settling south usually are good to I-90 and points south. If the front is slow enough, temps will be quite hot. The southward front is good and bad. The good new is that anvils will be directed northeastward away from convection propagating more southward but that is also the bad news for you. My only concern for your area is that convection becomes very robust in the CT-NY-PA corridor and just "exhausts" on you in BOS. While this wouldn't kill all convection, it would certainly limit coverage, which is something you need for rain deficits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 by-the-way...ryan, your posts in the old thread were spot on...imo. Great now we can expect nothing but professional posts from the pros I hope. Regardless of what has been posted no one I have seen is absolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Great now we can expect nothing but professional posts from the pros I hope. Regardless of what has been posted no one I have seen is absolved. head on over to the banter thread and i can share my thoughts...not going to do it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Wednesday could be interesting for areas south of the Mass Pike. For those of us north of the Pike, we need the timing of the front to slow down. But right now I expect the front to be along the Pike by about 18Z. Which would put areas south of there in a good spot, it will allow for some significant day time heating to take place. Temps should be pushing 90 for CT, RI and maybe SE MA by the afternoon. Which could set the stage for some pretty good thunderstorm activity. CAPE values for some places in CT, RI and SE MA could be as high as 2500 J/kg. Not bad. Will be interesting to see what fires in Southeastern Canada and Northern New England tomorrow night. Things are shaping up for them and look pretty good for some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 It's an interesting day to me. The lower trop convergence axis associated with cool fropa will be aligned more W-E then the typical N-S orientation. Storm motion may be ESE/SE - so relative shear may be exaggerated some in having SW flow out ahead. Not sure what the deep layer shear offers, but the skin-deep analysis looks intriguing. these are set-ups which help the E folks some. which is why i'm cautiously optimistic on getting in on something. and by something...i more just mean actual rain falling from the clouds. LOL. we've had several complexes hang together enough to get some good photo opportunities and some lightning and such, but the rainfall aspect has been awful. there seems to be growing support for a bit of wave on the boundary too. so maybe after SB type stuff fades perhaps we get a second pulse of elevated storms and downpours. that would be ideal. most likely, i will get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 new 09z sref puts slight risk type severe probs for the south coast of CT Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Is it me or has this year provided the most beautiful cloud formations or what. Just some great East Coast pics this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2012 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND... That "slgt" line runs right over MBY, probably providing another near-miss opportunity. 06z gfs has 0.15" or so for this afternoon, and now passes the CF dry. After 0.2" for D1-8, they have 2.5" for D9-16. They 'always' have nice rain for D9-16 when we need it now. Sat saw storms miss E&W (each within <5 mi) at 4:30P, then even closer on the east at 6, before a weak TS dropped 0.09" at 9. Yesterday stayed dry until a midnight shower gave 0.03", making my July total 0.27". The estimated precip map this AM showed several places to my S and W with 0.5" to over 1", confirmed by cocorahs. There was also a mega dump, 3-5", from about The Forks to the south half of Moosehead Lake. If accurate, we may have lost some woodsroad culverts last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 by-the-way...ryan, your posts in the old thread were spot on...imo. About bad post quality? I really hope something is done. Wednesday is intriguing if we can get some of the stronger deep layer shear to juxtapose with the high CAPE. A lot to work out in this regard but we have decent potential I think for a show on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 The southward front is good and bad. The good new is that anvils will be directed northeastward away from convection propagating more southward but that is also the bad news for you. My only concern for your area is that convection becomes very robust in the CT-NY-PA corridor and just "exhausts" on you in BOS. While this wouldn't kill all convection, it would certainly limit coverage, which is something you need for rain deficits. That's exactly what happens too...good wording. I worry about that if the front is faster like the SREFs have. The shape of the trough and disturbances coming around would give rise to the scenario you laid out. Something to watch. We'll see what the GFS and Euro have at 12z, because the previous runs looked ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Euro has been dead nuts on with a late afternoon/evening fropa for days and days..Timing looks good. Something else might screw it up..but it won't be timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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