TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The KFS has an interesting initialization scheme. It takes texts from various forecasters and then spits out a forecast combining the most extreme scenario. Fascinating. What would you say is its verification score is worse than the cras I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Meh I leave Kevin alone for the most part but those series of posts on the epic devastation coming to sne were just too juicy to pass. Good mets like myself aren't afraid to put it all on the table and risk a Philly Phail like 2009, the timid cautious mets tend to really struggle in this field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 What would you say is its verification score is worse than the cras I imagine. KFS makes the JMA look like the euro ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The KFS has an interesting initialization scheme. It takes texts from various forecasters and then spits out a forecast combining the most extreme scenario. Fascinating. Its a lot more inline with the NOGAPS and JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 One out of two of these things are correct. He is bad with names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 He is bad with names Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Kevin should be made an honorary "red-tagger for a day." How proud he would be. Maybe for a week, due to his humility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 SPC gives us a shout-out in the 4-8 day outlook: ...DISCUSSION... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT BREAKDOWN AND SEWD SHIFT OF ANTICYCLONE NOW OVER WRN CONUS. THIS...ALONG WITH AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER E-CENTRAL CANADA AND PORTIONS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL LEAD TO BELT OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BY DAY-5/16TH-17TH...EXTENDING EWD OVER NY/NEW ENGLAND REGION THEREAFTER. EXPECT RELATED/MEAN SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED DAYS 5-6/16TH-18TH FROM NRN PLAINS TO PORTIONS UPPER GREAT LAKES...SERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT AND ALONG NRN RIM OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN CAN SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL EWD PROPAGATION OF ONE OR MORE SVR MCS WITH SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND...ARISING FROM UPSHEAR NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT-LAKES TSTM GROWTH. SUCH ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAY 5-6 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN TIER OF CANADA. ATTM...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING KEY SHORTWAVE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DETAILS ALOFT...AND THEIR IMPACT ON STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF RELATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW. THAT IN TURN STRONGLY INFLUENCES GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF RELATIVELY DENSE TSTM CONCENTRATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 12z euro slightly better than yesterday for Weds. Better defined s/w, stronger cold front.... meh, I'm grasping at straws here. Chance I'll be taking down the UMass radar after this summer, and would really like another good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 12z euro slightly better than yesterday for Weds. Better defined s/w, stronger cold front.... meh, I'm grasping at straws here. Chance I'll be taking down the UMass radar after this summer, and would really like another good event. I don't see you grasping at straws. The timing could get messy, and also height falls / cf lagging could be an issue..looks like as usual, gfs is more aggressive. Pretty good setup even if it's a night time thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Front looks like it doesn't come thru until thursday or Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 12z euro slightly better than yesterday for Weds. Better defined s/w, stronger cold front.... meh, I'm grasping at straws here. Chance I'll be taking down the UMass radar after this summer, and would really like another good event. Why would it come down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Why would it come down? Given that it's most useful as a tool for severe weather, I think we could all admit that this area is not ideal, despite the coverage gap. Were it used operationally by BOX, (as these radars were used operationally by OUN), that would give some ammo to keep it up, but their bandwidth situation is so bad that it may prevent them from being able to bring in the data. Heck, even ENX flows over NOAAnet Nothing is set in stone, but it's pretty tempting to haul it to DFW to augment the network we're building there. One day I certainly would love to see a small network along the river valley, despite the relative lack of severe. For now it's pretty hard to demonstrate value banking on these typically marginal setups to produce something notable. And on cue, the models took a step in the wrong direction overnight for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Isolated severe tomorrow? Will depend on degree of instability we can attain and whether we can actually get some of the more impressive mid level winds in here (like the NAM is showing). Looks sort of meh right now but could perk up if certain ingredients fall the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Isolated severe tomorrow? Will depend on degree of instability we can attain and whether we can actually get some of the more impressive mid level winds in here (like the NAM is showing). Looks sort of meh right now but could perk up if certain ingredients fall the right way. You think all of CT will see some rain tomorrow of meaning? Not just hit and mis stuff. Getting tired of dragging sprinklers around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 You think all of CT will see some rain tomorrow of meaning? Not just hit and mis stuff. Getting tired of dragging sprinklers around My lawn is dead as can be. I need to buy a sprinkler. 8 days away with no water did it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 My lawn is dead as can be. I need to buy a sprinkler. 8 days away with no water did it in. Even with me watering..the edges are taking a beating..but overall nice and green and growing. So do you think we all see rain tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Even with me watering..the edges are taking a beating..but overall nice and green and growing. So do you think we all see rain tomorrow? Have only looked at a few things. Just have been unpacking and unwinding from vaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 I looked briefly but I would think heavy rain/isolated flash flooding would be more of a threat than severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 PWATS tomorrow are quite high and I'm not all that sure we will see the instability values the GFS is forecasting. Looking at soundings with the upper levels of the atmosphere being so moist I think clouds will be a big issue tomorrow and that will limit instability. Not to mention mid-level lapse rates blow and there even looks like a weak cap in the mid levels. Shear is pretty meh although the wind profile is pretty decent but it sucks shear is on the weak side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Wednesday could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Wednesday could be interesting. yeah seems to offer a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 yeah seems to offer a shot. As long as clouds don't screw it up, it has the look that normally favors our area. Good convergence, westerly flow..etc. Timing of the front may favor I-90 on south for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Wednesday could be interesting. Agreed. The 6z GFS has a fairly substantial threat along and south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Agreed. The 6z GFS has a fairly substantial threat along and south of the Pike. Yeah it could be good if we heat enough. Wouldn't mind some storms. Been pretty boring as of late. How was ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 I think we'll see some fun heavy rainers today back here... maybe even a pulse severe downburst with these things loaded with water as long as we can organize a couple updrafts. Shear is low... but not 0... so maybe that's enough to tip things IF we realize decent instabilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Yeah it could be good if we heat enough. Wouldn't mind some storms. Been pretty boring as of late. How was ME? Fantastic. Not quite as much partying as last year... a little more relaxing. Just what I needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Fantastic. Not quite as much partying as last year... a little more relaxing. Just what I needed. Yeah that part slowly starts to go away at our age...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 I think we'll see some fun heavy rainers today back here... maybe even a pulse severe downburst with these things loaded with water as long as we can organize a couple updrafts. Shear is low... but not 0... so maybe that's enough to tip things IF we realize decent instabilty. Yeah I see that out your way too. Just hope we can get some of that east. GFS and Euro seem robust even here, but I'm not so sure it's that widespread as it shows for this area. I could see some good rains if a low does develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Yeah that part slowly starts to go away at our age...lol. lol no kidding. I think I would have had a chance to see the AB last night up there (45N)... they also had a nasty severe storm in the afternoon just south of where I was staying. I never time vacations well... although the weather was beautiful for the last 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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