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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread V


Typhoon Tip

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The latest and greatest media craze.

Folks in Marshfield got a decent downpour.

yeah... i had multiple people at work ask me to explain what it is today lol

i suspect (1) derechos will be over-called in the near term, and (2) derecho will be forgotten unless we get another big event

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For eastern CT/Mass/ and RI Wednesday, the 18z NAM is better than the 12z. West of there may suck in this depiction -

But for eastern New England there is a wedge of slightly lowered 700mb RH that is probably representative of some partial warm sector clearing with more proficiency than the 12z had it. the T1 shot from just 20C on the 12z guidance, to 25C, which with 70DP would be a torrid instability evolving in a 3-4 hour window - again, east of Forkyfork and Ct "Ryan" ;)

But that's just this model run... It 'almosts' looks a bit like that 1987 June event to me. Somewhat. That day dawned with a warm front in the area, and on-going isentropic lift convection. In fact, one cell or 2 were even warned as they passed west to east. On the back side of that activity, around 1 or 2 pm, it cleared abruptly. The warm sector punched up to about southern NH, and S of there the sky went misty blue and the temp soared from the mid 60s at 11am in heavier showers, to 87 by 5pm - no exaggeration there. The DP was 72-74, too. At around 8pm it hit - one of the severest storms I've ever seen, and that includes the 15 years I lived in the midwest. It was a like a mini derecho (derechio to ChrisM). It came down Rt 2 in two pulses: One was about 1/2 hour out ahead of the storm; the 2nd was with the storm its self. I had never seen that before, but almost wonder to this day if gravity wave action somehow split the outflow into concentric bands. Interesting.

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Anything that can raise awareness about the dangers of thunderstorms and not just tornadoes lol.

Well the media and extememists are pissed that tornadoes are near record lows for May and June, so have to weenie out on something.

I like your comment earlier about DC and NYC, The world revolves around those two places so everything must be hyped there. Irene was such a gross example of that in NYC.

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For eastern CT/Mass/ and RI Wednesday is better than the 12z. We of there may suck -

But for eastern New England there is a wedge of slightly lowered 700mb RH that is probably representative of some partial warm sector clearing with more proficiency than the 12z had it. the T1 shot from just 20C on the 12z guidance, to 25C, which with 70DP would be a torrid instability evolving in a 3-4 hour wind - again, east of Forkyfork and Ct "Ryan" ;)

But that's just this model run... It 'almosts' looks a bit like that 1987 June event to me. Somewhat. That day dawned with a warm front in the area, and on-going isentropic lift convection. In fact, one cell or 2 were even warned as they pass west to east. On the back side of that activity, around 1 or 2 pm, it cleared abruptly. The warm sector punched up to about southern NH, and S of there the sky went misty blue and the temp soared from the mid 60s at 11am in heavier showers, to 87 by 5pm - no exaggeration there. The DP was 72-74, too. At around 8pm it hit - one of the severest storms I've ever seen, and that includes the 15 years I lived in the midwest.

I didn't look at much today as I'll be in srn NH at a friends place..hopefully drinking and shooting roman candles at people. Euro looked rather messy.

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For eastern CT/Mass/ and RI Wednesday is better than the 12z. We of there may suck -

But for eastern New England there is a wedge of slightly lowered 700mb RH that is probably representative of some partial warm sector clearing with more proficiency than the 12z had it. the T1 shot from just 20C on the 12z guidance, to 25C, which with 70DP would be a torrid instability evolving in a 3-4 hour window - again, east of Forkyfork and Ct "Ryan" ;)

But that's just this model run... It 'almosts' looks a bit like that 1987 June event to me. Somewhat. That day dawned with a warm front in the area, and on-going isentropic lift convection. In fact, one cell or 2 were even warned as they passed west to east. On the back side of that activity, around 1 or 2 pm, it cleared abruptly. The warm sector punched up to about southern NH, and S of there the sky went misty blue and the temp soared from the mid 60s at 11am in heavier showers, to 87 by 5pm - no exaggeration there. The DP was 72-74, too. At around 8pm it hit - one of the severest storms I've ever seen, and that includes the 15 years I lived in the midwest. It was a like a mini derecho (derechio to ChrisM). It came down Rt 2 in two pulses: One was about 1/2 hour out ahead of the storm; the 2nd was with the storm its self. I had never seen that before, but almost wonder to this day if gravity wave action somehow split the outflow into concentric bands. Interesting.

If the AM storms can't go severe (unlikely right now) then I actually think western and northern areas have a better chance of seeing storms. Atmosphere has best chance of recovering there.

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If the AM storms can't go severe (unlikely right now) then I actually think western and northern areas have a better chance of seeing storms. Atmosphere has best chance of recovering there.

Does anyone know if KTAN's not providing up to date BUFKIT data for the 18z cycles is by design or not? If so, where can we get it??

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If the AM storms can't go severe (unlikely right now) then I actually think western and northern areas have a better chance of seeing storms. Atmosphere has best chance of recovering there.

Just looked at some stuff. It just seems like whether or not the morning stuff gets out and clears up. I feel like if the morning MCS didn't happen..it may be game on.

The only thing that seems rather blah, is shear...velocity that is.

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Well the media and extememists are pissed that tornadoes are near record lows for May and June, so have to weenie out on something.

I like your comment earlier about DC and NYC, The world revolves around those two places so everything must be hyped there. Irene was such a gross example of that in NYC.

it could be the 22 million people. the ny metro has almost as many people as the dc/bos/philly metros combined

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it could be the 22 million people. the ny metro has almost as many people as the dc/bos/philly metros combined

It's a media thing. If NYC is threatened...the world comes to a screeching halt and the most catastrophic possibilities are discussed. Irene was a joke.

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It's a media thing. If NYC is threatened...the world comes to a screeching halt and the most catastrophic possibilities are discussed. Irene was a joke.

Yet the surge was inches from innundating downtown subway system. NYC is exceptionally vulnerable from an economic perspective.

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Just looked at some stuff. It just seems like whether or not the morning stuff gets out and clears up. I feel like if the morning MCS didn't happen..it may be game on.

The only thing that seems rather blah, is shear...velocity that is.

Yeah timing is just off. No MCS and we'd be in better shape.

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Yet the surge was inches from innundating downtown subway system. NYC is exceptionally vulnerable from an economic perspective.

I agree they are, but the Irene coverage went a little overboard there...especially afterwards when all the hype luckily turned out to be not so bad. It was the post talk about how it was still deadly and the term "unprecedented" was thrown around. Almost like a rush to try and justify the hype. Meanwhile where the impacts were always forecasted to be significant...nobody really talked about that until after the fact.

Just wait until something stronger then Irene approaches from the south or south-southeast.

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I agree they are, but the Irene coverage went a little overboard there...especially afterwards when all the hype luckily turned out to be not so bad. It was the post talk about how it was still deadly and the term "unprecedented" was thrown around. Almost like a rush to try and justify the hype. Meanwhile where the impacts were always forecasted to be significant...nobody really talked about that until after the fact.

Just wait until something stronger then Irene approaches from the south or south-southeast.

Yup.

It was funny here in CT the storm totally lived up to the hype. Weird storm.

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For eastern CT/Mass/ and RI Wednesday, the 18z NAM is better than the 12z. West of there may suck in this depiction -

But for eastern New England there is a wedge of slightly lowered 700mb RH that is probably representative of some partial warm sector clearing with more proficiency than the 12z had it. the T1 shot from just 20C on the 12z guidance, to 25C, which with 70DP would be a torrid instability evolving in a 3-4 hour window - again, east of Forkyfork and Ct "Ryan" ;)

But that's just this model run... It 'almosts' looks a bit like that 1987 June event to me. Somewhat. That day dawned with a warm front in the area, and on-going isentropic lift convection. In fact, one cell or 2 were even warned as they passed west to east. On the back side of that activity, around 1 or 2 pm, it cleared abruptly. The warm sector punched up to about southern NH, and S of there the sky went misty blue and the temp soared from the mid 60s at 11am in heavier showers, to 87 by 5pm - no exaggeration there. The DP was 72-74, too. At around 8pm it hit - one of the severest storms I've ever seen, and that includes the 15 years I lived in the midwest. It was a like a mini derecho (derechio to ChrisM). It came down Rt 2 in two pulses: One was about 1/2 hour out ahead of the storm; the 2nd was with the storm its self. I had never seen that before, but almost wonder to this day if gravity wave action somehow split the outflow into concentric bands. Interesting.

It's almost like all models and everything is pointing to exactly the opposite of everything you just posted here.

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