OSUmetstud Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Yeah it's impressive to be in a LES whiteout, which I get for small intervals when they sweep down this far. But then the next day it's underwhelming when it sublimates/settles etc. to less than half the snow depth in the blink of an eye. LOL it really depends what time of year it is. The snow in BUF is definitely a bit wetter overall than the snow in the tug. October 2006 and Nov. 2000 were quite wet. You get 10 or 15:1 snow in the early lake effect season and then increasing ratios in the heart of winter...but in BUF during prolific events it's not usually much above 20 or 25:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 We're not done yet. As suspected, this week's weather is only temporary as the retrograding North Pacific Low retogrades, allowing the Bermuda High to come into play. While models differ somewhat on the evolution beyond 1 week, they all agree there is potential for warmth and perhaps another "period" for severe weather potential between July 18-22. The ECMWF is the most robust of course with this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 My concern is that storms ride that boundary with better lapse rates which is why my concern was that they head more SW away from much of SNE. Not to mention any debris clouds, but it doesn't mean we can't get strong storms. It will depend on how the upstream stuff behaves too. The wind fields are so strong. 50+kts at 700mb? You never see that. Usually it's like 50kts at 500mb and 30-35 kts at 700. By the way, good call over the last few days with Saturday's severe threat. I got a higher-based shelf cloud (good greenish tint too) with wind gusts clocked around 55 MPH at KTTN. As usual, the worst of the storms shifted north and east at last second and dodged me, barely giving me any rain or close-range CG strikes. The OFB wind was impressive for the area and gave me an appreciation of what kind of wind must have gone through locations further N/E that were in a stronger part of the t-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 By the way, good call over the last few days with Saturday's severe threat. I got a higher-based shelf cloud (good greenish tint too) with wind gusts clocked around 55 MPH at KTTN. As usual, the worst of the storms shifted north and east at last second and dodged me, barely giving me any rain or close-range CG strikes. The OFB wind was impressive for the area and gave me an appreciation of what kind of wind must have gone through locations further N/E that were in a stronger part of the t-storm. Thanks man, but even I thought we'd see at least some storms here. I think cloud cover was just too much up this way. I like your outline of the pattern going forward because it does offer a few chances as boundaries try to wash out with a high TD atmosphere. Looks like your se ridge is trying to build for a time later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Thanks man, but even I thought we'd see at least some storms here. I think cloud cover was just too much up this way. I like your outline of the pattern going forward because it does offer a few chances as boundaries try to wash out with a high TD atmosphere. Looks like your se ridge is trying to build for a time later next week. The quick arrival of the morning MCS was a major player in completely taking you guys out of the equation. A lot of you guys in New England sniffed out the SW threat / lack of New England threat very early and y'all did awesome (osu/wiz etc). Yes the SE ridge is going to be make a return, as it appears now. Looks like we will once again do a retrograde mid-July, putting another trough in the GOA and possibly bringing another trough to the Northeast again later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The quick arrival of the morning MCS was a major player in completely taking you guys out of the equation. A lot of you guys in New England sniffed out the SW threat / lack of New England threat very early and y'all did awesome (osu/wiz etc). Yes the SE ridge is going to be make a return, as it appears now. Looks like we will once again do a retrograde mid-July, putting another trough in the GOA and possibly bringing another trough to the Northeast again later in the month. Thanks we appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 By the way, good call over the last few days with Saturday's severe threat. I got a higher-based shelf cloud (good greenish tint too) with wind gusts clocked around 55 MPH at KTTN. As usual, the worst of the storms shifted north and east at last second and dodged me, barely giving me any rain or close-range CG strikes. The OFB wind was impressive for the area and gave me an appreciation of what kind of wind must have gone through locations further N/E that were in a stronger part of the t-storm. I was luckily in Pt. Pleasant and we got slammed. It was a nice reward for attending a god-damned outdoor graduation party on a 100º aftn...Did u see any mammatus afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 back home and all systems go for a wild day tomorrow. 18z NAM looks great All systems are a go for a major outbreak in all of SNE looking at 12 z models Just a monster monster late day for all tomorrow. Wow Big big afternoon/ evening tomorrow. Wow Well you being shocked and the Euro wiping out much of SNE with damage are 2 main reasons why everyone is so pumped and things look so good for a widespread destructive outbreak We need to prepare for DC like power outages. This is going to be catastrophic The quick arrival of the morning MCS was a major player in completely taking you guys out of the equation. A lot of you guys in New England sniffed out the SW threat / lack of New England threat very early and y'all did awesome (osu/wiz etc). Yes the SE ridge is going to be make a return, as it appears now. Looks like we will once again do a retrograde mid-July, putting another trough in the GOA and possibly bringing another trough to the Northeast again later in the month. Thanks we appreciate it I doubt he was referring to you based on your forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I was luckily in Pt. Pleasant and we got slammed. It was a nice reward for attending a god-damned outdoor graduation party on a 100º aftn...Did u see any mammatus afterwards? Sorry, didn't see this post yesterday. I did not see the beautiful mammatus you guys did at the shore. The pictures are incredible and they look like something from out of the Plains. This post legitimately makes me laugh as I can only imagine some of your sarcastic remarks that day in the heat. It builds character ! The high-based beautiful shelf cloud / awesome colors with the background CG and wind gusts to 55 MPH were all excellent things to witness. Freehold isn't too far from here and it looked like a bomb went off there...and I'm glad I missed that kind of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I doubt he was referring to you based on your forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I doubt he was referring to you based on your forecasts I've seen folks refer to the "handful of decent posters" in the Sports Forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I've seen folks refer to the "handful of decent posters" in the Sports Forum... What goes on in OT and sports has no comparison to what should go on on the weather side, and I actually like Kevin, but that was just too good to pass up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Sorry, didn't see this post yesterday. I did not see the beautiful mammatus you guys did at the shore. The pictures are incredible and they look like something from out of the Plains. This post legitimately makes me laugh as I can only imagine some of your sarcastic remarks that day in the heat. It builds character ! The high-based beautiful shelf cloud / awesome colors with the background CG and wind gusts to 55 MPH were all excellent things to witness. Freehold isn't too far from here and it looked like a bomb went off there...and I'm glad I missed that kind of damage. ... So true man, just sitting there clothes drenched head to toe in sweat thinking, "he's a good family friend, it is right that we are here"... Anyhow, the mammatus were very impressive and by far the best ive ever personally seen..posted a few pics on previous pages if you missed. Freehold definitely got slammed with the heart of one of those downbursts.. the winds I saw in Pt. pleasant were more of the inherent gust front momentum nature, rather than an intense reinforcing downburst...But the approach and over all storm was certainly no less impressive to witness...that 78 mph wind gust in Brick was only a few miles away...like you said, they can keep it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I doubt he was referring to you based on your forecasts LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 What goes on in OT and sports has no comparison to what should go on on the weather side, and I actually like Kevin, but that was just too good to pass up. Kevin should be made an honorary "red-tagger for a day." How proud he would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Kevin should be made an honorary "red-tagger for a day." How proud he would be. Well most folks here do consider me a met. And as good as the KFS has been over the years..they may as well just give me the met tag. The only one that would have an issue with it is Bob..All the other mods/admin would be fine with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Kevin should be made an honorary "red-tagger for a day." How proud he would be. i second this. make kev a "red-tagger for a day" no sales that day for rev kev...just post after post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Well most folks here do consider me a met. And as good as the KFS has been over the years..they may as well just give me the met tag. The only one that would have an issue with it is Bob..All the other mods/admin would be fine with it rev kev for prez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 rev kev for prez seconded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 rev kev for prez A snowblower in every garage! Lesco mandatory for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Well most folks here do consider me a met. And as good as the KFS has been over the years..they may as well just give me the met tag. The only one that would have an issue with it is Bob..All the other mods/admin would be fine with it This is probably one of your funniest post i have read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 yes def. funniest i've read in at least a year. i was laughing so hard people were looking at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 yes def. funniest i've read in at least a year. i was laughing so hard people were looking at me. He probably believes that too and isn't joking. It's like Roger Clemens. Clemens has told himself over and over that he didn't do steroids that he believes it to be true, even though he was one of the biggest juice heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 He probably believes that too and isn't joking. It's like Roger Clemens. Clemens has told himself over and over that he didn't do steroids that he believes it to be true, even though he was one of the biggest juice heads. I think most here believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I think most here believe it Lol no most laugh at you and feel bad for your delusions of grandeur but hey whatever floats your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The KFS has an interesting initialization scheme. It takes texts from various forecasters and then spits out a forecast combining the most extreme scenario. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Trials loves busting Kevin and LL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Trials loves busting Kevin and LL. His name is Josh and he's a divorce lawyer. That tells you all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 His name is Josh and he's a divorce lawyer. That tells you all you need to know. One out of two of these things are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Trials loves busting Kevin and LL. Meh I leave Kevin alone for the most part but those series of posts on the epic devastation coming to sne were just too juicy to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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