weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 she is under my bed After the brief sprinkle, dry and cool breezes are coming in. One thing we can hope for is a stronger than normal midwest trough, come later in July and Aug. Should focus some pretty good training storm setups here and there, and maybe that weenie TC impact we all are holding out for. I'm just ready for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Suns back out full throttle . Let's re- destabilize LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I'm just ready for winter So am I Severe Wx season this year blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Su out here at BDL...hot again. Let's re-destabilize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 So am I Severe Wx season this year blows. Where we live it blows every year for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Where we live it blows every year for the most part It's worse where I live. Long Island doesn't see sh!t when it comes to interesting weather. I'm so glad I'll be in Oswego for much of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Miss communication ftl Still lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 It's worse where I live. Long Island doesn't see sh!t when it comes to interesting weather. I'm so glad I'll be in Oswego for much of this winter. Hopefully this an epic LES season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Still lost Snow dude made it seem like Pa was having derecho but from what you said that's not the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Hopefully this an epic LES season I think that it will be, because the lakes are pretty warm this year. That means that they could keep producing snow through February. I'd love to see either a January 1977 LES event or a February 2007 LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Munson is holding my nieces baby an it's cute. I want to get pregnant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Snow dude made it seem like Pa was having derecho but from what you said that's not the case Dr. Forbes was talking about it. I don't know all that much about severe weather so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Munson is holding my nieces baby an it's cute. I want to get pregnant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I think that it will be, because the lakes are pretty warm this year. That means that they could keep producing snow through February. I'd love to see either a January 1977 LES event or a February 2007 LES event. Warm SSTs are good but you also need to have a good setup so the wind trajectory I right. I know crap about LES but there are many here who are very good and I'm sure they would chime in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Snow dude made it seem like Pa was having derecho but from what you said that's not the case Im on mobile I have no idea where he's talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Im on mobile I have no idea where he's talking about You weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Warm SSTs are good but you also need to have a good setup so the wind trajectory I right. I know crap about LES but there are many here who are very good and I'm sure they would chime in here Yea, I do know that if you get a good fetch over the lakes with a decent wind (30-40 MPH) and the wind is from the W-NW, it is usually pretty good for the Oswego area. The best set up is when you get a snow band that goes from the Georgian Bay and it extends into Lake Ontario, that will usually create a nice fat snow band with good snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yea, I do know that if you get a good fetch over the lakes with a decent wind (30-40 MPH) and the wind is from the W-NW, it is usually pretty good for the Oswego area. The best set up is when you get a snow band that goes from the Georgian Bay and it extends into Lake Ontario, that will usually create a nice fat snow band with good snowfall rates. I want to go LES chasing so badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yea, I do know that if you get a good fetch over the lakes with a decent wind (30-40 MPH) and the wind is from the W-NW, it is usually pretty good for the Oswego area. The best set up is when you get a snow band that goes from the Georgian Bay and it extends into Lake Ontario, that will usually create a nice fat snow band with good snowfall rates. Buffalo, NY seems to get the most prolific LES that impacts a population. Also love the length-of-the-lake fetch setups, where on rad you get the deep convective "look" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I want to go LES chasing so badly LES is the sh!t. My sister lives in North Syracuse, she has to shovel snow off of her roof to keep it from caving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Buffalo, NY seems to get the most prolific LES that impacts a population. Also love the length-of-the-lake fetch setups, where on rad you get the deep convective "look" 7''/HR snowfall rates FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Buffalo, NY seems to get the most prolific LES that impacts a population. Also love the length-of-the-lake fetch setups, where on rad you get the deep convective "look" Yea, but their season isn't as long as places along Lake Ontario. Lake Erie is too shallow and it freezes over in January during cold years, while Ontario produces through February. The Tug Hill area sees the most in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yea, but their season isn't as long as places along Lake Ontario. Lake Erie is too shallow and it freezes over in January during cold years, while Ontario produces through February. The Tug Hill area sees the most in the state. But there is no substitute for nice 24 to 36 hour northeasters or major, cyclonic winter storms, paralyzing large areas that are relatively heavily populated. LES only impacts limited small geo. areas downwind from their respective lakes, are erratic (you need to be located in narrow, stationary snowbands) and the flakes don't seem real (in that they are very large and tend to resemble what you might see in a Hollywood studio). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Sorry you guys missed out today. Looks like Scott and company were onto that Ne PA/further south scenario yesterday. And I got to see an awesome storm in coastal NJ as a result...Heres what i posted in the NYC forum just now... Was down in Point Pleasant today and got a great show!...shelf cloud and black sky as the storm approached...winds gusted to ~50 mph and the CG lightning was constant every second. Third time this year I've seen some extremely vivid lightning..walked to the beach and saw epic cg over water which was painted by a rainbow as the sunset came out behind it...then the mammatus clouds came out. 78 mph wind gust just a few miles over in the next town of Brick..Doesnt surprise me from observing the storm roll in, as it looked a bit worse to my south.. and also the radar showed an accelerating bow echo right through that section of ocean county. Here are some pictures I caught on my Iphone..so much lightning I figured i would keep snapping to try and catch one with the rainbow...it only took 10 clicks to get this first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 And a pair of shelf cloud photosd i found on Facebook...first from Long Branch and second from Seaside Heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I can see the sky being lit up very faintly by lightning from somewhere. Kinda weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 But there is no substitute for nice 24 to 36 hour northeasters or major, cyclonic winter storms, paralyzing large areas that are relatively heavily populated. LES only impacts limited small geo. areas downwind from their respective lakes, are erratic (you need to be located in narrow, stationary snowbands) and the flakes don't seem real (in that they are very large and tend to resemble what you might see in a Hollywood studio). the tug gets decent nor'easters, too. And believe me...if you were in it...you would think the flakes were very real lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 the tug gets decent nor'easters, too. And believe me...if you were in it...you would think the flakes were very real lol I hate how dense (or lack thereof) LES is though...it doesn't have good staying power. However I will say this...when you watch LES fall, its so cool because it just seems to pile up in front of your eyes. Those perfect dendrites and 40 to 1 ratios can be really fun sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Yeah it's impressive to be in a LES whiteout, which I get for small intervals when they sweep down this far. But then the next day it's underwhelming when it sublimates/settles etc. to less than half the snow depth in the blink of an eye. LOL the tug gets decent nor'easters, too. And believe me...if you were in it...you would think the flakes were very real lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Just speaking to the choir at this time, but I looked back at the SPC mesoanalyses for 16z yesterday. For western CT, when looking at 14 key severe weather parameters, only 1 supported severe weather. 9 did NOT support it and 4 marginally supported it. The more I look into it, I wonder how closely SPC was analyzing the data. Not nit-picking, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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