weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Not sure what you mean? I was referring to Kevin. Kevin thinks we will see a derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Anything that develops is goin to want to ride where the best instability and moisture is an hat won't be here I mentioned that this morning. But you need to respect those wind fields as any storms that do develop could be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I mentioned that this morning. But you need to respect those wind fields as any storms that do develop could be severe. The wind fields certainly are impressive but I'm worried they may be too strong given the lax of cape so updrafts become too tilted and have trouble growing tall enough to produce big fun. This is almost like an early spring or fall setup with low cape/hog shear over our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The wind fields certainly are impressive but I'm worried they may be too strong given the lax of cape so updrafts become too tilted and have trouble growing tall enough to produce big fun. This is almost like an early spring or fall setup with low cape/hog shear over our area All you do is look at numbers and worry..We've told you 100 times not to do that, but you don't listen. You look at the pattern and the setup..and not worry about assinine numbers that the computer spits out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 All you do is look at numbers and worry..We've told you 100 times not to do that, but you don't listen. You look at the pattern and the setup..and not worry about assinine numbers that the computer spits out What should I look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I mentioned that this morning. But you need to respect those wind fields as any storms that do develop could be severe. It's kind of a strange setup. It's too bad we can't get more impressive CAPE up into this area...all the good stuff is SW in that respect. But seeing 45-60 knots in that 8h-6h layer is impressive... I would think anything that manages to fire could pack quite a punch...even if its very isolated in coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The wind fields certainly are impressive but I'm worried they may be too strong given the lax of cape so updrafts become too tilted and have trouble growing tall enough to produce big fun. This is almost like an early spring or fall setup with low cape/hog shear over our area I agree that the wind fields may actually be too strong, never thought I'd be saying that about a summer setup in SNE but there it is. Combine that with the poor position relative to an anticylonic jet streak and I see the possible makings of a bust for our area. However, if we can get just a little more instability then the models are currently predicting, things could get interesting. It's not a write-off yet, not by any means, but it could go either way... The basic potential is there, but there are some negative factors that don't exactly inspire confidence. I agree CT has the best chance as things lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I agree that the wind fields may actually be too strong, never thought I'd be saying that about a summer setup in SNE but there it is. Combine that with the poor position relative to an anticylonic jet streak and I see the possible makings of a bust for our area. However, if we can get just a little more instability then the models are currently predicting, things could get interesting. It's not a write-off yet, not by any means, but it could go either way... The basic potential is there, but there are some negative factors that don't exactly inspire confidence. I agree CT has the best chance as things lie. I couldn't agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitemountainhiker Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Wow is an understatement to the storm that rolled through Monroe NH area around 5. We were heading back to Peacham from the Hanover area and had stopped in Woodsville. I could see dark clouds to our north but couldn't see just how strong things looked. We headed up the Ct river on the NH side on RT 135. Soon after I could see to the NW and saw a lot of cloud to ground lightning but hings looked manageable. As we got closer it looked to my untrained eye as a nasty storm with a nice shelf cloud. I pulled over at one point as I couldn't tell if there was a funnel while safely driving. Deciding it wasn't and going with the idea that it is NNE it can't be that bad, I mistakenly drove on. As we got closer I could sheets of rain on the hills on the other side of the river and was very nervous about hail. Suddenly the storm hit us but was not too bad at first. I turned around and thought of outrunning it to the south but that seemed futile so we headed back north. Things quickly got worse, much worse. the wind was very strong and branches were flying. Worst was a number of pine branches headed straight at the car. At its peak there was pea size hail and visibility was lower than I have ever encountered in a blizzard- maybe less that 25 feet. I didn't dare stop because trees and power lines lined the road and I was afraid we would get crushed. Eventually I noticed a town garage type building to the side of the road and pulled straight into someone carport. We stayed put for a few minutes until the worst had past. There were large branches down everywhere but from what I could tell it was all straight line winds- no rotation. We crossed the bridge in Barnet but the road to W,. Barnet was blocked by a downed tree. We eventually found a way over the hill and around Harveys Lake but came across other downed trees partially blocking the road and one side road near the lake which had multiple trees completely blocking the road. Eventually made it home safely. I am kicking myself for not taking pictures when I pulled over to look at the storm before we headed into it but not nearly as much as I am kicking myself for heading into it. Easiest my most scary weather moment. I was south and west of you, in Fairlee, VT viewing that same storm you were in. I also saw what appeared to be a shelf cloud. This was definitely a mean looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 It's kind of a strange setup. It's too bad we can't get more impressive CAPE up into this area...all the good stuff is SW in that respect. But seeing 45-60 knots in that 8h-6h layer is impressive... I would think anything that manages to fire could pack quite a punch...even if its very isolated in coverage Yeah I agree. They'll probably be isolated to scattered stuff too that pack a punch. I just don't quite see a widespread deal quite yet, but we'll have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yeah I agree. They'll probably be isolated to scattered stuff too that pack a punch. I just don't quite see a widespread deal quite yet, but we'll have to watch. Your wx posts are cute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 How do 0z look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I don't like SNE at all in this set-up...instability is garbage and such strong winds are just going to tear apart any updrafts that can develop. The best shot of severe weather is definitely from SW NY through northern PA into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I don't like SNE at all in this set-up...instability is garbage and such strong winds are just going to tear apart any updrafts that can develop. The best shot of severe weather is definitely from SW NY through northern PA into NJ. Agreed. I could see a few storms form that give some heavy downpours though. But I think the severe aspect is going to be limited...also the coverage of the storms remains to be seen. I like the south coast over to SE MA for the best chace at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Agreed. I could see a few storms form that give some heavy downpours though. But I think the severe aspect is going to be limited...also the coverage of the storms remains to be seen. I like the south coast over to SE MA for the best chace at anything. I like the Bradford area for the best chance of higher end severe winds. There's a good juxtaposition of mid-level shear, a contaminated eml, and nice instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I don't like SNE at all in this set-up...instability is garbage and such strong winds are just going to tear apart any updrafts that can develop. The best shot of severe weather is definitely from SW NY through northern PA into NJ. The theta-e gradient from the surface up through 850 mb is pretty tight from CNY through NE PA. Looks like some big wind potential in that corridor this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The theta-e gradient from the surface up through 850 mb is pretty tight from CNY through NE PA. Looks like some big wind potential in that corridor this afternoon/evening. yeah dews should be pretty decent around these parts and south. It's 71 right now...72 an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 yeah dews should be pretty decent around these parts and south. It's 71 right now...72 an hour ago. Last couple of runs of the SPC WRF want to blow up a complex (probably aided by the lake breeze convergence as is typical) near you and race it ESE. I think that's the right evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Euro insists on bringing the complex from near Lake Ontario into W SNE...diving SE through CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Euro insists on bringing the complex from near Lake Ontario into W SNE...diving SE through CT. looks like elevated garbage...the euro still is having a tough time popping the actual warm sector over PA and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 looks like elevated garbage...the euro still is having a tough time popping the actual warm sector over PA and NJ. Yeah I'm not putting a ton of stock into it. The NAM is actually superior to the Euro when it comes to convection...esp inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Congrats everyone who said we'd be storm free in SNE today.Models backed off overnight. Nothing like a dry fropa to end a nasty hot spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 At least Buffalo and Western NY are out of the game too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Congrats everyone who said we'd be storm free in SNE today.Models backed off overnight. Nothing like a dry fropa to end a nasty hot spell Catastrophic derecho cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I will take pics guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Catastrophic derecho cancel? It looked so promising this time yesterday..Now we get searing heat ended by a windshift and a warmdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like best chances to fhe sw? AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Congrats everyone who said we'd be storm free in SNE today.Models backed off overnight. Nothing like a dry fropa to end a nasty hot spell you should text wiz and personally apologize for attacking him yesterday....maybe drive him around hartford for a few days so he doesn't have to walk and take the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 you should text wiz and personally apologize for attacking him yesterday....maybe drive him around hartford for a few days so he doesn't have to walk and take the bus. Yeah he owes him a big apology. What a jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like best chances to fhe sw? AWT. PA could get a nasty line. still a chance for a few isolated cells around these parts...but that is some awful instability as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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