Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread V


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looking at the gfs, which usually registers higher surface dewpoints than what is actually happening, it is on point right now with the 75-80...it thinks dews will be in the low 80s this aftn though across illinois...so it isnt underestimating the upstream dews per se. The advection process its what would come into question i think.

huh..yeah...

i actually didn't check the GFS for much of SNE...it was the NAM soundings and MET MOS i was looking at...it really mixes them out considerably...like low 60s at BDL by Sat PM.

with the continued WNW flow it's not going to drag those 75-80 dews right overhead (though maybe better shot down your way that they run high given the trajectory of the airmass) so i wouldn't expect dews in the mid 70s here but it wouldn't surprise me if they were more along the lines of middle or upper 60s as opposed to the 60-62 stuff showing up on some stuff.

the nam the last few weeks has been too aggressive with heating and too aggressive drying out the BL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

huh..yeah...

i actually didn't check the GFS for much of SNE...it was the NAM soundings and MET MOS i was looking at...it really mixes them out considerably...like low 60s at BDL by Sat PM.

with the continued WNW flow it's not going to drag those 75-80 dews right overhead (though maybe better shot down your way that they run high given the trajectory of the airmass) so i wouldn't expect dews in the mid 70s here but it wouldn't surprise me if they were more along the lines of middle or upper 60s as opposed to the 60-62 stuff showing up on some stuff.

the nam the last few weeks has been too aggressive with heating and too aggressive drying out the BL.

Agreed, that does make sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning

Yeah they're starting to show up more and more east of the river. We have several around here that seem to always find their way back after prong dropped in Colebrook or Cornwall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPC goes wild

TSTMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT OR

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY AFTERNOON AS CINH ERODES AND MLCAPE VALUES

RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE POOLING OF

MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF FRONT. SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN

PLACE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY

OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES ARE

EXPECTED. HIGH LCLS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO

POSSIBLE. CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING

HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE WEAKENING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...