Quincy Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think northern PA and southern NY is to place to be. some pretty impressive data out there, but a few stray severe storms would reach western SNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think northern PA and southern NY is to place to be. some pretty impressive data out there, but a few stray severe storms would reach western SNE as well. I Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think northern PA and southern NY is to place to be. some pretty impressive data out there, but a few stray severe storms would reach western SNE as well. Is it looking good for places like Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Looking at the gfs, which usually registers higher surface dewpoints than what is actually happening, it is on point right now with the 75-80...it thinks dews will be in the low 80s this aftn though across illinois...so it isnt underestimating the upstream dews per se. The advection process its what would come into question i think. huh..yeah... i actually didn't check the GFS for much of SNE...it was the NAM soundings and MET MOS i was looking at...it really mixes them out considerably...like low 60s at BDL by Sat PM. with the continued WNW flow it's not going to drag those 75-80 dews right overhead (though maybe better shot down your way that they run high given the trajectory of the airmass) so i wouldn't expect dews in the mid 70s here but it wouldn't surprise me if they were more along the lines of middle or upper 60s as opposed to the 60-62 stuff showing up on some stuff. the nam the last few weeks has been too aggressive with heating and too aggressive drying out the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 All systems are a go for a major outbreak in all of SNE looking at 12 z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 All systems are a go for a major outbreak in all of SNE looking at 12 z models you must be coming back home today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 you must be coming back home today. At Plymouth state eating now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 At Plymouth state eating now enrolling in the met program? show them the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 huh..yeah... i actually didn't check the GFS for much of SNE...it was the NAM soundings and MET MOS i was looking at...it really mixes them out considerably...like low 60s at BDL by Sat PM. with the continued WNW flow it's not going to drag those 75-80 dews right overhead (though maybe better shot down your way that they run high given the trajectory of the airmass) so i wouldn't expect dews in the mid 70s here but it wouldn't surprise me if they were more along the lines of middle or upper 60s as opposed to the 60-62 stuff showing up on some stuff. the nam the last few weeks has been too aggressive with heating and too aggressive drying out the BL. Agreed, that does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm just mpt all that impressed with Saturday..without male instability we just aren't going to see anything great I like female instability myself but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I like female instability myself but to each their own. New phone ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning I once heard that bears ravage random yards before historical Derechos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning Neat, an otter woke me up this morning eating a pumpkinseed on the beach next to my tent. Another Chamber day, just wow on how perfect the day is. Lock and bottle this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 we have a 130kt jet streak entering northern New England on July 7th...I'm pretty sure that is not normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 we have a 130kt jet streak entering northern New England on July 7th...I'm pretty sure that is not normal it's not...very anomalous lol. Unfortunately it's putting downward vertical motion over the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning Yeah they're starting to show up more and more east of the river. We have several around here that seem to always find their way back after prong dropped in Colebrook or Cornwall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning Global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Next door neighbor just shot me a text. Said we had bear in the yard this morning I think there must be a correlation between the J-field and bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 maybe should hope the bears stay, they will be the sole cause of damage tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 When will this god damn heat end @ BWI someone please tell me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 New phone ftl. Lol. I posted that while work outside so I did it fast b/c we aren't supposed to be on our phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 When will this god damn heat end @ BWI someone please tell me November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think the best stuff stays south and west of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 When will this god damn heat end @ BWI someone please tell me BWI doesn't reach Bostons normal high for today until September 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 back home and all systems go for a wild day tomorrow. 18z NAM looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 back home and all systems go for a wild day tomorrow. 18z NAM looks great I haven't looked at the 18z bam yet but I'm guessing you're wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 SPC goes wild TSTMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY AFTERNOON AS CINH ERODES AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF FRONT. SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH LCLS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE WEAKENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Kevin is now what I used to be when I first joined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 18z NAM does look good... For NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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