OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 one of the few times in the last 2 weeks that term gets chucked when it might actually be warranted. maybe. I was actually alluding to the joke of that main forum thread about Jupiter and mesoscale severe weather. I'd be lying if I don't pull up the NARR and see almost jaw dropping synoptic similarities to July 14-15, 1995. However, the evapotranspiration is so anemic due to dry soil conditions I'm not sure if we can get all that much to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 july 15th, 1995 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Wow the 6z NAM is awfully impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm not in left field with that comparison, am I? Closed Low over SE Canada...a big midwest ridge...a rockin Quebec jet...a shortwave front moving down from the NW from the northern lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm not in left field with that comparison, am I? Closed Low over SE Canada...a big midwest ridge...a rockin Quebec jet...a shortwave front moving down from the NW from the northern lakes? The difference I see is that mid level lapse rates seem to be shunted to the SW away from SNE. At least as of last night, maybe that changes today. I don't think we'll see an EML like we did that day, but maybe if things inch north more, we might be able to do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The 1995 analog is a little ridiculous. OKX's 12z sounding that morning had about 4000 j/kg of SBCAPE. Totally different league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm not in left field with that comparison, am I? Closed Low over SE Canada...a big midwest ridge...a rockin Quebec jet...a shortwave front moving down from the NW from the northern lakes? Yeah but you're comparing 2 events with drastically different amounts of instability. Loads of boundary layer moisture in 1995 coupled with a textbook EML. Both of those things we won't have on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 My concern is that storms ride that boundary with better lapse rates which is why my concern was that they head more SW away from much of SNE. Not to mention any debris clouds, but it doesn't mean we can't get strong storms. It will depend on how the upstream stuff behaves too. The wind fields are so strong. 50+kts at 700mb? You never see that. Usually it's like 50kts at 500mb and 30-35 kts at 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 one of the few times in the last 2 weeks that term gets chucked when it might actually be warranted. the 02z sunday bdl sounding on the 06z nam is pretty nuts. 55 kt of deep layer shear and about 1000 MLCAPE. I'm excited as anyone with a good tstm. Heck I'm happy just with good CG. You're right in that we have had some action in June and early July. The most action I can remember in at least a few years. 2008 tops it, but I have had hail at least twice already. Missed both of course being away or at work. Well I hope you guys get a good show tomorrow, I think you will. Even with the potential more stable mid-levels..that complex over the northern plains should plow right into New England with plenty of convection out ahead of it in upstate NY by mid-aftn...then to you guys later and by the evening...gotta love that wind max coming through, and youre going to be on the periphary of heat approaching all-time records in the mid-Atlantic... It's funny how I almost find myself dissapointed/downplaying a threat after seeing that IAD sounding of -14 LI and 6000 cape lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 My concern is that storms ride that boundary with better lapse rates which is why my concern was that they head more SW away from much of SNE. Not to mention any debris clouds, but it doesn't mean we can't get strong storms. It will depend on how the upstream stuff behaves too. The wind fields are so strong. 50+kts at 700mb? You never see that. Usually it's like 50kts at 500mb and 30-35 kts at 700. Yeah if we're able to sufficiently destabilize it could be big. I like that this is in July... not earlier in the season. Issues with timing and instability are going to be things to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 3z SREF mean for MLCAPE at BDL at 00z on Sunday is 637 j/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Well I hope you guys get a good show tomorrow, I think you will. Even with the potential more stable mid-levels..that complex over the northern plains should plow right into New England with plenty of convection out ahead of it in upstate NY by mid-aftn...then to you guys later and by the evening...gotta love that wind max coming through, and youre going to be on the periphary of heat approaching all-time records in the mid-Atlantic... It's funny how I almost find myself dissapointed in a threat after seeing that IAD sounding of -14 LI and 6000 cape lol The 12z NAM says it feels bad for NJ so I'm going to nail them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yeah but you're comparing 2 events with drastically different amounts of instability. Loads of boundary layer moisture in 1995 coupled with a textbook EML. Both of those things we won't have on Saturday. I think I made an allusion to that with the lack of low-level moisture. The synoptics are very similar but the mesoscale environments are considerably different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 SREFS still like Northern PA/southern NY better than SNE on Saturday...showing 20% probs of severe thunderstorms in the post-processed guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 maybe. I was actually alluding to the joke of that main forum thread about Jupiter and mesoscale severe weather. I'd be lying if I don't pull up the NARR and see almost jaw dropping synoptic similarities to July 14-15, 1995. However, the evapotranspiration is so anemic due to dry soil conditions I'm not sure if we can get all that much to happen. oh i know you meant it in jest...and i'm not saying some monster event either. but obviously to get the text book definition...it doesn't have to be a history maker. i would just think with that wind field...anything that develops to the west will move so rapidly SE and have such ridiculous rear inflow it would be capable of producing severe criteria over a fairly long path. also wonder if guidance is a bit too low on the low level moisture. upstream dews are pretty darn high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 My concern is that storms ride that boundary with better lapse rates which is why my concern was that they head more SW away from much of SNE. Not to mention any debris clouds, but it doesn't mean we can't get strong storms. It will depend on how the upstream stuff behaves too. The wind fields are so strong. 50+kts at 700mb? You never see that. Usually it's like 50kts at 500mb and 30-35 kts at 700. they are winter like. maybe the NAM is a bit overdone but some of the soundings are nearly 60 knots ~7h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The 12z NAM says it feels bad for NJ so I'm going to nail them. Yea wow definitely an interesting trend there...though central NJ/HM country is still in the screw zone...your further south idea certainly has legs with regards to the ne PA/n NJ and even NYC zone, i dont know if we can salvage further south though. Unless the 6z nam is correct in throwing central NJ a bone on sunday. Bufkits showed even as far north as Newark destabilizing nicely (1500 sbcape) with storms waiting to fire until ~18z, and 40+ kts 6km shear still around...I doubt it would play out like that, would think plenty of non-severe nonsense/clouds would be hanging in vicinity of that front through sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 the dewpoints over northern Indiana and Illinois are horrendous...77-80F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 don't worry...the strengthening j-field will certainly help develop a derecho develop on Saturday. the angle of the j-field is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 At one point during the July 4th T-Storm I observed a small plane flying by the storm. (What an amazing view that must have been!!) I took a close look at the pictures from that time period and noticed that it looks like the plane was struck by lightning as it flew by the right side rotation of the storm. Here are some crops of the full photo's. If you look at the right side in the middle of the first picture you will see the light trail of the plane and a small arc of lightning that reaches out from the storm and ends directly on the light trail. As expected the lightning didn't effect the plane and it continued on it's way in the 2nd photo. The photo's are also of interest for the shear amount of lightning the storms were putting out. The two rotating columns in the storm were acting just like electrical dynamos putting out non-stop lightning for the 30 minutes I was photographing them. I took 60, 30 second exposures over that time period and there isn't a single frame where the storm isn't lit up with either visible arcs or internal lighting. I was amazed and felt very lucky to have witnessed that storm with my camera at hand. Thanks to everyone for all the kind comments as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Those are some of the coolest wx related photos I have ever seen (including the ones from earlier) just jaw dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 12z NAM is much faster, although it looks like a hiccup. Concerning that at 18z it shows a vort center blowing into western SNE and 700mb winds over 50kts. SREF from 9z kept everything back until closer to 21-00z, even for the "front end". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 12z NAM is much faster, although it looks like a hiccup. Concerning that at 18z it shows a vort center blowing into western SNE and 700mb winds over 50kts. SREF from 9z kept everything back until closer to 21-00z, even for the "front end". though it did seem to shift everything faster/further south as well when comparing to 3z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 though it did seem to shift everything faster/further south as well when comparing to 3z.. very interesting, anxiously waiting the 12z data. this could have big implications for outdoor plans and events on Saturday. Manchester, CT just postponed theirs to Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 don't worry...the strengthening j-field will certainly help develop a derecho develop on Saturday. ha ha...get that now. saw the thread. i knew you were posting tongue in cheek but didn't get the specific reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 mid-level lapse rates on the new nam are awful. ~5c/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 not the best resolution, but it looks like the GFS is faster as well with storm activity tomorrow afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 also wonder if guidance is a bit too low on the low level moisture. upstream dews are pretty darn high. Looking at the gfs, which usually registers higher surface dewpoints than what is actually happening, it is on point right now with the 75-80...it thinks dews will be in the low 80s this aftn though across illinois...so it isnt underestimating the upstream dews per se. The advection process its what would come into question i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm just mpt all that impressed with Saturday..without male instability we just aren't going to see anything great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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