Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The 06z NAM is a maple mauler for ern MA..lol. Just a monster monster late day for all tomorrow. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 6z NAM hodo from twisterdata at BDL looks nice. Can anyone with bufkit image of the hodo and check lapse rates? I'm in my phone at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Of course they got blasted this year by that early season hailer, right after BGM got dual-pol. Although even then, I bet the largest hail was all on South Hill as opposed to East Hill. Meh it didn't even rain on campus during that storm really. Collegetown had some penny-sized hail, but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The problem (or one of the problems) I see is the fact that we may have lots of mid to high level clouds. You can see that on the RH charts. But, the wind fields are really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The problem (or one of the problems) I see is the fact that we may have lots of mid to high level clouds. You can see that on the RH charts. But, the wind fields are really impressive. Yeah that looks to be an issue...I'm also worried about westerly winds in the llvl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think this is best maybe across PA/NJ...NYC area. At least for now, it doesn't mean SNE can't see anything. CT has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The problem (or one of the problems) I see is the fact that we may have lots of mid to high level clouds. You can see that on the RH charts. But, the wind fields are really impressive. Clouds north of pike but south looks good. Dews over 70 and plenty of instabiliry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Clouds north of pike but south looks good. Dews over 70 and plenty of instabiliry Another issue is moisture isn't all that deep and with dry air in he lower levels and potential for westerly winds at the sfc and llvls that could Mix dry air down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think this is best maybe across PA/NJ...NYC area. At least for now, it doesn't mean SNE can't see anything. CT has a shot. Going to 3k tomorrow. How's it looking for the Jackson area? Far enough north or will I need to keep a wary eye out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Going to 3k tomorrow. How's it looking for the Jackson area? Far enough north or will I need to keep a wary eye out? I'd still keep an eye out, but you might be ok. I could see some shwrs, but I think tstms stay south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Another issue is moisture isn't all that deep and with dry air in he lower levels and potential for westerly winds at the sfc and llvls that could Mix dry air down I'm actually liking the moisture pooling. Look at 925 and 850mb on twisterdata. Plenty of juice with PWATs near 2" on the GFS. There is actually a dry area to our south over NJ...the moisture pooling for now actually is good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm actually liking the moisture pooling. Look at 925 and 850mb on twisterdata. Plenty of juice with PWATs near 2" on the GFS. There is actually a dry area to our south over NJ...the moisture pooling for now actually is good for us. Ahh I see what you mean...that's actually different than past runs and as moisture increases we see an instability increase towards dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'm actually liking the moisture pooling. Look at 925 and 850mb on twisterdata. Plenty of juice with PWATs near 2" on the GFS. There is actually a dry area to our south over NJ...the moisture pooling for now actually is good for us. You had to rub it in, didn't you?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think this is best maybe across PA/NJ...NYC area. At least for now, it doesn't mean SNE can't see anything. CT has a shot. You think the data is too far north with where this complex heads tomorrow night? Why do I feel like I may potentially get screwed here? lol Overnight stuff misses to my north and then Sunday's activity misses south. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think this is best maybe across PA/NJ...NYC area. At least for now, it doesn't mean SNE can't see anything. CT has a shot. I don't know man. after a quick glance this morning, It looks like the damn front is so slow that we don't get anything down this way until like 10PM or later...It more or less stalls overnight too with a constant chance for more storms NYC and south through sunday.. looks good for DC area from a severe perspective on sunday because the front sags south enough by peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yeah late July and August usually blow around here, however, we have had some notable events during the month of August but usually after the second week of July things get pretty meh. With it being in the heart of summer usually the best westerlies are well north of here and the mid-levels bake pretty good so lapse rates are awful. For what it's worth (possibly not much given the limited data set and criteria), there wasn't an Ekster/Banacos EML severe wx event in the Northeast between 7/23-8/14 for possibly the reasons you describe. The events return again in the 8/15-9/7 period. If this year goes the way of 2002, then I wouldn't count on this late period to deliver any goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 You think the data is too far north with where this complex heads tomorrow night? Why do I feel like I may potentially get screwed here? lol Overnight stuff misses to my north and then Sunday's activity misses south. Sigh... Yep that's pretty much how I see it on the latest data as well.. it would fit the general pattern of this year, and our general pattern of bad luck with severe weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 SPC SREF is still highlighting areas farther west for best severe potential Saturday evening...NW PA/NE Ohio/SE Michigan/SW NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I know the feeling. It only took two and half years in Iowa to realize how rare a really severe storm is in New England. I probably experienced 50+ knot winds more times in those 2.5 years than I had in my entire life in Rhode Island (I bet even including the occasional tropical cyclone). It's funny you say this. Growing up on the shoreline east of New Haven I can only recall one severe thunderstorm that I saw in 18 years (it would have been 2... but I was away for 7/10/89). Since I've moved here to West Hartford, though, I've probably seen a half dozen in as many years - both severe hail and 50 knot winds. I'd still rather live near the water... but as storms go this is definitely better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 You think the data is too far north with where this complex heads tomorrow night? Why do I feel like I may potentially get screwed here? lol Overnight stuff misses to my north and then Sunday's activity misses south. Sigh... Well I kind of have this feeling it might peel SE, but I guess the more I look at it...the more it seems like SNE is within the goal posts as well. I don't want the upstream convection to rip SE tonight and screw us with mid to high level debris clouds which is on my mind, but that usually is more of a nowcast deal. Something to help our cause, I'm away this weekend so lock it in..lol. The wind fields are really impressive, almost scary. You don't see that very often. The jet support aloft is not ideal and temps aloft are relatively warm, but actually cool the further northeast one goes. Weak s/w moving se and subtle height falls may help here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I don't know man. after a quick glance this morning, It looks like the damn front is so slow that we don't get anything down this way until like 10PM or later...It more or less stalls overnight too with a constant chance for more storms NYC and south through sunday.. looks good for DC area from a severe perspective on sunday because the front sags south enough by peak heating. Yeah you may be right. I commented how the more I look at it, the more perhaps this area could be favored. I try not to get too excited when it comes to tstms around here and usually wait until 24 hrs before any event in order to really get pumped up, but some of the wind fields are really impressive. I guess my concern for here is how upstream convection develops and if that moves a little further to the right and blankets up with mid level debris clouds. That's my concern, but perhaps it's more for areas north of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yep that's pretty much how I see it on the latest data as well.. it would fit the general pattern of this year, and our general pattern of bad luck with severe weather lol Do you still have clients up here? I thought I remember you having some clients up here during last winter. You,HM, Forky etc should feel free to post. It's nice having other opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Euro still is lackluster for popping the warm sector on Saturday. Could limit the wind potential as storms are elevated behind the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 don't worry...the strengthening j-field will certainly help develop a derecho develop on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yeah you may be right. I commented how the more I look at it, the more perhaps this area could be favored. I try not to get too excited when it comes to tstms around here and usually wait until 24 hrs before any event in order to really get pumped up, but some of the wind fields are really impressive. I guess my concern for here is how upstream convection develops and if that moves a little further to the right and blankets up with mid level debris clouds. That's my concern, but perhaps it's more for areas north of I-90. You know better than I do that is the way to approach eastern New England severe weather. Though you guys have gotten some decent action so far, at least better than anything I've seen in NJ or otherwise. The morning storms we had a couple weeks ago were an excellent show of rain/lightning/dark clouds...and then I caught more incredible lightning, with a few rain drops in the outflow about 40 miles north of the Derecho on the monmouth county beaches last week. You bring up a good point about the mid-level cloud debris from whats already going on though..As usual with t-storm events, there really are no set answers on how this will unfold at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 You know better than I do that is the way to approach eastern New England severe weather. Though you guys have gotten some decent action so far, at least better than anything I've seen in NJ or otherwise. The morning storms we had a couple weeks ago were an excellent show of rain/lightning/dark clouds...and then I caught more incredible lightning, with a few rain drops in the outflow about 40 miles north of the Derecho on the monmouth county beaches last week. You bring up a good point about the mid-level cloud debris from whats already going on though..As usual with t-storm events, there really are no set answers on how this will unfold at this moment I'm excited as anyone with a good tstm. Heck I'm happy just with good CG. You're right in that we have had some action in June and early July. The most action I can remember in at least a few years. 2008 tops it, but I have had hail at least twice already. Missed both of course being away or at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 the 02z sunday bdl sounding on the 06z nam is pretty nuts. 55 kt of deep layer shear and about 1000 MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 the 02z sunday bdl sounding on the 06z nam is pretty nuts. 55 kt of deep layer shear and about 1000 MLCAPE. The NAM is one to frame..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 don't worry...the strengthening j-field will certainly help develop a derecho develop on Saturday. one of the few times in the last 2 weeks that term gets chucked when it might actually be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Derecho from ND to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.