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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread V


Typhoon Tip

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How about a derecho from the Dakotas to New england coast Friday morning through Sat night?

Yeah, 2 million still without power and in an area where there is a heat crisis on-going.. .

I recall us mentioning the possibility of a Derecho ("Derechio", to ChrisM) as a threat during that period - I know there's a MCS checklist out there, but I don't know if there is a "derecho" one, per se -

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I find their radar is the best around, in terms of looking at storms and zooming in on them.

yeah i know a lot of people use the site. when it comes to RADAR and such i'm almost always using desktop software or an app of some kind. i always forget they have the Euro - every now and then i'll look at their version i guess.

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oh yeah no i wasn't calling you out at all.

things just always become the flavor of the month. i've seen so many people talking about an MCS and the potential for a derecho to accompany it.

No worries, I did not take it that way...i completely understand where your coming from with that last statement though. It always annoys the crap out of me when the media gets a hold of one of these weather terms, runs with it...and before you know it its neck deep in the climate change debate. :axe:

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yeah i know a lot of people use the site. when it comes to RADAR and such i'm almost always using desktop software or an app of some kind. i always forget they have the Euro - every now and then i'll look at their version i guess.

It's bad but after using GR2 for so long I can't even imagine not having it. It's so powerful compared to anything else out there I feel like analyzing a storm without it is like doing it blindfolded with my hands tied behind my back lol.

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It's bad but after using GR2 for so long I can't even imagine not having it. It's so powerful compared to anything else out there I feel like analyzing a storm without it is like doing it blindfolded with my hands tied behind my back lol.

i know it.

not sure if you've done it but one of the great things about his software is going and getting some of the custom dbz tables that folks have made and posted around the internets.

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i know it.

not sure if you've done it but one of the great things about his software is going and getting some of the custom dbz tables that folks have made and posted around the internets.

Oh yeah. I have Eksters velocity table and I made my own reflectivity one (I duplicated the one I made here at work).

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Looking ahead to the 4th. The agreement in timing of the vort max arriving from the Great Lakes is incredible. Using Accupro, looking at the NAM, GFS, and Euro Ops. The vort max is centered in the same location at hours 42, 48, and 54. The agreement between the 3 Operational models is simply amazing.

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SPC regarding Wednesday:

...NERN STATES THROUGH OH VALLEY...

A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF ERN NY INTO

NEW ENGLAND WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF WARM

FRONT. STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID-UPPER 60S

DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN WAKE OF THE

RETREATING FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE

PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING OF MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE

MORNING. BELT OF 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD

ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF

MULTICELLS AND STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS THEY

DEVELOP SEWD WHERE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE A

THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

I mentioned to Wiz' last night that it looked more like straight line wind action. I don't care - really. Thunderstorm entertainment is fine that way for me. I've been getting more and more interested in big hail. It's really need to see. I March, a super cell screamed down the Mohawk Trail up here in N -central Mass, at like 10:30 at night, with about 100 mph long hail streak. It came squarely over Ayer Mass, and I got to hear "hail roar". It covered the ground almost an inch deep and some of the stones were quarter sized. When that happens, you up the power notch and can feel it.

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I think it looks okay as long as everything does not trend further s.

All depends on how much subsidence after that MCS. To be honest the 18z NAM doesn't really look that great to me since we have the core of the MCS generated vortmax dead overhead HFD at 18z. Behind it we'll battle with subsidence and that's no good for convection.

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