StormSurge Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'll add my kudos to those Rogers Lake pics as well. It was an impressive show way up here in Ledyard. Great job capturing the closer view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Almost time to start looking forward to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Almost Always time to start looking forward to winter. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Almost time to start looking forward to winter. Yeah unless we get a good event in the next 2 weeks....we usually don't produce in August/September, but there are exceptions. But usually we are like the last week of May through mid July. But at least we can count on another big event around 2020-2024 if the cycle follows its usual progression (1979, 1989, 1998, 2011, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yeah unless we get a good event in the next 2 weeks....we usually don't produce in August/September, but there are exceptions. But usually we are like the last week of May through mid July. But at least we can count on another big event around 2020-2024 if the cycle follows its usual progression (1979, 1989, 1998, 2011, etc) Yeah late July and August usually blow around here, however, we have had some notable events during the month of August but usually after the second week of July things get pretty meh. With it being in the heart of summer usually the best westerlies are well north of here and the mid-levels bake pretty good so lapse rates are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 A quick and dirty time lapse. Not very smooth but I wasn't really planning for this when I was shooting stills last night. Crazy nice night pics of the clouds and lightning. What were your camera settings or what type of programed setting were you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Some pics you guys might like.... This is looking south over Rogers Lake, Old Lyme CT around 10:30PM last night. The fireworks ended around 10pm and then Mother Nature decided to put on her own show... OMG....those are fantastic....well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The atmosphere profile is all reversed...the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is pretty saturated while the lower levels is too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It's possible we may have to wait until Saturday night of front slows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 One thing I will say though that does annoy me around here is that it seems like BOX and OKX in their densely populated CWAs can verify any severe thunderstorm warning with the most minor tree damage. We've sent crews to places where "trees are down" only to find a dead limb dangling from a power line. I think it probably leads to "overwarning" marginal storms. It is definitely not as black and white as it is made out to be. Relative to a more populated CWA, or even a more populated part of a CWA, we or BTV or CAR have to work much harder to verify because of gaps in the spotter network. Then you could question that and ask was the storm really severe if we had to make so many phone calls. Meanwhile, part of the problem is that we can only work with what we're given. We can really only go off what we see on radar (and couple that with the background environment), so when we issue a warning we think it is severe. If we get a report of trees down we believe it. Of course, we don't know if we have some over-excited weenie seeing a branch hanging off a powerline and that story gets trumped up to be a 4 foot diameter live oak snapped at the base. Then you have what happened across northern VT and down through the Lakes Region of NH. That was significant damage from an organized cluster of cells. Yet we probably don't follow up as much as we should with that. I would bet you localized areas saw at least 80 mph gusts out of that, yet we don't survey the damage to document it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It is definitely not as black and white as it is made out to be. Relative to a more populated CWA, or even a more populated part of a CWA, we or BTV or CAR have to work much harder to verify because of gaps in the spotter network. Then you could question that and ask was the storm really severe if we had to make so many phone calls. Meanwhile, part of the problem is that we can only work with what we're given. We can really only go off what we see on radar (and couple that with the background environment), so when we issue a warning we think it is severe. If we get a report of trees down we believe it. Of course, we don't know if we have some over-excited weenie seeing a branch hanging off a powerline and that story gets trumped up to be a 4 foot diameter live oak snapped at the base. Then you have what happened across northern VT and down through the Lakes Region of NH. That was significant damage from an organized cluster of cells. Yet we probably don't follow up as much as we should with that. I would bet you localized areas saw at least 80 mph gusts out of that, yet we don't survey the damage to document it. The video I saw from Tilton NH looked close to 80 or so imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It is definitely not as black and white as it is made out to be. Relative to a more populated CWA, or even a more populated part of a CWA, we or BTV or CAR have to work much harder to verify because of gaps in the spotter network. Then you could question that and ask was the storm really severe if we had to make so many phone calls. Meanwhile, part of the problem is that we can only work with what we're given. We can really only go off what we see on radar (and couple that with the background environment), so when we issue a warning we think it is severe. If we get a report of trees down we believe it. Of course, we don't know if we have some over-excited weenie seeing a branch hanging off a powerline and that story gets trumped up to be a 4 foot diameter live oak snapped at the base. Then you have what happened across northern VT and down through the Lakes Region of NH. That was significant damage from an organized cluster of cells. Yet we probably don't follow up as much as we should with that. I would bet you localized areas saw at least 80 mph gusts out of that, yet we don't survey the damage to document it. Its ok to admit you just go by Kevin's reports of destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The video I saw from Tilton NH looked close to 80 or so imo. The pictures I've seen are definitely consistent with gusts that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Its ok to admit you just go by Kevin's reports of destruction. Heavy, heavy destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It is definitely not as black and white as it is made out to be. Relative to a more populated CWA, or even a more populated part of a CWA, we or BTV or CAR have to work much harder to verify because of gaps in the spotter network. Then you could question that and ask was the storm really severe if we had to make so many phone calls. Meanwhile, part of the problem is that we can only work with what we're given. We can really only go off what we see on radar (and couple that with the background environment), so when we issue a warning we think it is severe. If we get a report of trees down we believe it. Of course, we don't know if we have some over-excited weenie seeing a branch hanging off a powerline and that story gets trumped up to be a 4 foot diameter live oak snapped at the base. Then you have what happened across northern VT and down through the Lakes Region of NH. That was significant damage from an organized cluster of cells. Yet we probably don't follow up as much as we should with that. I would bet you localized areas saw at least 80 mph gusts out of that, yet we don't survey the damage to document it. Oh yeah, no system for verification or spotters is going to be perfect. Totally understand. I just chuckle sometimes at some of the damage that gets reported as thunderstorm wind damage when the winds likely never exceeded 35 knots. It seems to happen constantly. There's a huge difference in our market between some of our northwest/rural towns and the populated shore/valley locations. A storms could be producing golf balls and 60 knot gusts and it's a struggle to get even a tweet about it in litchfield county and then the storm does it anywhere else in the state and I have about 60 pictures in my inbox in 15 minutes. It's normally easy for me to judge though which storm is going to be marginal and worth sending our crews to... And the ones that actually did do substantial damage. Unfortunately many tv weather people can't analyze a Doppler radar image beyond light rain or heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Heavy, heavy destruction The best is when Kevin reports a tree down (likely an exaggeration) and wiz bumps it up to trees (plural) down when he let's the ham radio guys know lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The best is when Kevin reports a tree down (like an exaggeration) and wiz bumps it up to trees (plural) down when he let's the ham radio guys know lol. Like a few years ago when Wiz was still a bit green when it came to severe wx...a few limbs down and it became trees uprooted all over Tolland. Still epic in the BOX office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Oh yeah, no system for verification or spotters is going to be perfect. Totally understand. I just chuckle sometimes at some of the damage that gets reported as thunderstorm wind damage when the winds likely never exceeded 35 knots. It seems to happen constantly. There's a huge difference in our market between some of our northwest/rural towns and the populated shore/valley locations. A storms could be producing golf balls and 60 knot gusts and it's a struggle to get even a tweet about it in litchfield county and then the storm does it anywhere else in the state and I have about 60 pictures in my inbox in 15 minutes. It's normally easy for me to judge though which storm is going to be marginal and worth sending our crews to... And the ones that actually did do substantial damage. Unfortunately many tv weather people can't analyze a Doppler radar image beyond light rain or heavy rain. It is actually interesting to read some of the personal reports on here. I think a lot of people in New England have little clue what a severe storm is actually like. To see some of our posters from VT and NH say that it was an awesome storm as it came in, but then it hit and they actually got a little worried or nervous, that's what a truly severe storm is like. The best is when Kevin reports a tree down (likely an exaggeration) and wiz bumps it up to trees (plural) down when he let's the ham radio guys know lol. That can happen in WFOs too, I've seen it before too. You get a system and one forecaster jumps on the biggest model run, and then the partner on the shift starts talking themselves into it. Before you know it, it's the blizzard of the century with widespread tree damage and power out for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It is actually interesting to read some of the personal reports on here. I think a lot of people in New England have little clue what a severe storm is actually like. To see some of our posters from VT and NH say that it was an awesome storm as it came in, but then it hit and they actually got a little worried or nervous, that's what a truly severe storm is like. That's one of my "problems" for being pessimistic most of the time. Since I have seen so many Texas severe storms. I've definitely been "numbed" to SNE typical severe storms, and when a "real" severe storm comes in, its not as amazing....still quite a nice site, but not armageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 That's one of my "problems" for being pessimistic most of the time. Since I have seen so many Texas severe storms. I've definitely been "numbed" to SNE typical severe storms, and when a "real" severe storm comes in, its not as amazing....still quite a nice site, but not armageddon. I know the feeling. It only took two and half years in Iowa to realize how rare a really severe storm is in New England. I probably experienced 50+ knot winds more times in those 2.5 years than I had in my entire life in Rhode Island (I bet even including the occasional tropical cyclone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I know the feeling. It only took two and half years in Iowa to realize how rare a really severe storm is in New England. I probably experienced 50+ knot winds more times in those 2.5 years than I had in my entire life in Rhode Island (I bet even including the occasional tropical cyclone). Well at least we got good training in ITH....that was probably about infinite for the times we saw it in Ithaca. (we'll assume X/0 is infinite and not undefined) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Well at least we got good training in ITH....that was probably about infinite for the times we saw it in Ithaca. (we'll assume X/0 is infinite and not undefined) Of course they got blasted this year by that early season hailer, right after BGM got dual-pol. Although even then, I bet the largest hail was all on South Hill as opposed to East Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The Euro is showing anafrontal convection on Saturday evening. It's really not all that spectacular lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 It's not too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Big big afternoon/ evening tomorrow. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Big big afternoon/ evening tomorrow. Wow According to what. And some of these posts overnight are complete bs and completely uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 According to what. And some of these posts overnight are complete bs and completely uncalled for. According to everything. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Thanks! very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 According to everything. Wow Looking at the 6z NAM looks like instability increases pretty good at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The 06z NAM is a maple mauler for ern MA..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.