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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread V


Typhoon Tip

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watch up for NNE:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 463

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

610 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MAINE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE

NORTHEAST NEW YORK

WESTERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 610 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF

BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PORTSMOUTH NEW

HAMPSHIRE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 460...WW 461...WW 462...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING IN NW-SE CORRIDOR

OF LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF FAIRLY POTENT SRN QUEBEC

SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...AMPLY RICH LOW LVL

MOISTURE...AND 35-40 KT NWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR

STORMS WITH SMALL BOWS/DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS SVR HAIL...GIVEN

PRESENCE OF MODERATE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 32025.

...CORFIDI

WWUS40 KWNS 042212

WWP3

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0463

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0512 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

WS 0463

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 32025

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU3.

$$

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I wish all storms could be like this. Great lightning, wind stayed under 40, and torrential rain. There was a 10 second period with just a few pea sized hailstones mixed in, but that was it.

LCI is 3 miles away and just reported a 51mph gust, so I got off rather lucky.

I think I got an impressive lightning strike on video but will have to check. I don't look at the screen when filming so I tend to film the ground or sky a lot.

Will eek's greenhouse survive?

With flying colors.

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