HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Just some light rain here overnight, then fringed by some more mod stuff Meh...at least it rained Almost .25" here overnight/early a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Seems sort of far...not sure about the paeking. We used to watch from thr Cambridge side and walked from street parking... Last night we watched the fireworks in Rutland, MA. Tons of parties last night Lobstahs tonight FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Light scattered showers here this am, Looks like we will see some sun then a chance of some scattered TS this pm, Heading to Naples (Long Lake) for the day to visit friends ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 12z soundings here and upstream don't look too bad. I'm wondering if the subsidence at 500mb will actually be less than models indicated as the overnight storms/showers weren't terribly impressive... meaning that convectively induced vort max will be a little less impressive. Will be interested in what the 12z runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 12z soundings here and upstream don't look too bad. I'm wondering if the subsidence at 500mb will actually be less than models indicated as the overnight storms/showers weren't terribly impressive... meaning that convectively induced vort max will be a little less impressive. Will be interested in what the 12z runs show. Go on twisterdata and look at 500mb winds for 00z tonight. LOL, NAM and GFS have some big differences being so close in terms of time. Anyways, shear looks pretty good after 21z. I also wonder if we see an evening show maybe here in ern areas. I wish that little cap at 600mb wasn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Last night was essentially nada here. Light shower barely wet the grass. Sorry I haven't kept a log, but we must be coming up on a month since it really rained measureable. I know we had a widespread rain event in the first 10 days of June. Absolutely parched, clay ground cracked, etc. Go on twisterdata and look at 500mb winds for 00z tonight. LOL, NAM and GFS have some big differences being so close in terms of time. Anyways, shear looks pretty good after 21z. I also wonder if we see an evening show maybe here in ern areas. I wish that little cap at 600mb wasn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Last night was essentially nada here. Light shower barely wet the grass. Sorry I haven't kept a log, but we must be coming up on a month since it really rained measureable. I know we had a widespread rain event in the first 10 days of June. Absolutely parched, clay ground cracked, etc. We were liucky enough to get about 0.2" last night/this morning...It has been dry for a while Edit- we did get about the same amount back on June 25, and a decent slug (0.6" or so) back on June 13, but I was away for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Well I wonder what implications the complete lack of clouds has for here. Already heating up nicely. Can't get the mesoanalysis page on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Well I wonder what implications the complete lack of clouds has for here. Already heating up nicely. Can't get the mesoanalysis page on my phone. Daytime heating really isn't the issue... it's things going on in mid levels that we'll have to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Raining here in downtown plymouth. Hopefully shortlived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Looking at the NAM and SREFs as well as things upstream..I kind of like ern areas later on. I think anyone is game, but height falls may be best there. Shear is really good on the south side of the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 Sunny there in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Yeah sorry I forgot to answer your text yesterday. I just realized that..lol. I think you'll see some storms later, but a little unsure if they will be really strong or just sct strong stuff. Still, would think after 3 or 4 up there..especially if there is a good amount of sun. SREF mean has 40kt effective bulk shear up here toward 00z with 1500J/kg MLCAPE. We're also getting into the LF quad of a 100kt H25 jetstreak. We'll probably get some severe pulsers in the area this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 SREF mean has 40kt effective bulk shear up here toward 00z with 1500J/kg MLCAPE. We're also getting into the LF quad of a 100kt H25 jetstreak. We'll probably get some severe pulsers in the area this evening. If we had good mid level lapse rates we'd have quite an outbreak today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 SREF mean has 40kt effective bulk shear up here toward 00z with 1500J/kg MLCAPE. We're also getting into the LF quad of a 100kt H25 jetstreak. We'll probably get some severe pulsers in the area this evening. Yeah it looks pretty good up that way on the 12z stuff. Even here, with the sun coming out early and decent shear...we could get some late aftn and early evening stuff coming down from your hood, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The departed mid-level wave has left us with a veered profile. Doesn't improve much later on from here on south, and combined with the lapse rates, we probably can't overcome it. I'm optimistic further north however, 91 corridor in southern VT and east. Keene has been a magnet this year and has cleared out nicely, up to 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 If we had good mid level lapse rates we'd have quite an outbreak today. What are the mid level lapse rates? Yesterday afternoon, you said they were ~ 4.4 @ BDL....any better today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 BTV always watching the upslope region for enhanced activity... "BUFKIT soundings show mbe vectors less than 10 kts middle day with potential for stationary or backbuilding storms. Winds shift west in the morning...and westerly jet could aid in locking storms onto west facing upslope regions." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 12z NAM and latest RAP has me concerned about fireworks/concert in the Boston metro tonight... decent parameters southern NH into eastern MA around 0Z any thoughts? have a sizable group hoping to be at the Esplanade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 12z NAM and latest RAP has me concerned about fireworks/concert in the Boston metro tonight... decent parameters southern NH into eastern MA around 0Z any thoughts? have a sizable group hoping to be at the Esplanade I would go and chance it. If it happens, it happens. I don't really foresee anything widespread, but shwrs./tstms are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I would go and chance it. If it happens, it happens. I don't really foresee anything widespread, but shwrs./tstms are possible. Fireworks either way. At least it isn't 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I would go and chance it. If it happens, it happens. I don't really foresee anything widespread, but shwrs./tstms are possible. thanks. yeah i don't have a choice at this point. 3G internet / real-time radar is gonna be non-existent in the crowds too lol... Fireworks either way. At least it isn't 1992. 1992 was my first at the esplanade lol... it was a much smaller event back then, easier to "postpone the 4th of july" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The latest RAP is actually pretty decent for CT and parts of MA this afternoon, with 3km EHI over 3 in places. Just looking at that model, forecast soundings actually look pretty good for the area, some semi-decent hodos, sufficient CAPE... OK, granted, lapse rates are still gonna be a problem, there's still a warm midlevel bulge, but it's nothing like the atrocity you can see on some of the NAM soundings - man, that thing is ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Yup...too bad the mlvl lapse rates are completely horrible. Instability values are pretty decent too given the lack of steep lapse rates. If we had mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/KM today would be very nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 It's an odd setup today. Impressed by strength of NW 700mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Box AFD is seeing what we are: However...with all that said there is a bit more concern across southern New Hampshire/eastern Massachusetts this evening. 0 to 6 km shear values increase to between 40 and 50 knots with an approaching shortwave and middle level lapse rates try to improve a tad. Forecast confidence remains low...but can/T rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm or two in this region. The latest NAM model...as well as the nmm/arw 00z runs hint at this to some degree so something will need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 It's an odd setup today. Impressed by strength of NW 700mb flow. The other odd thing is that most of the modeled CAPE today is pretty high up.... like above 500mb. If we can get convection up past that 500mb warm tongue the storms do have decent instability up high to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Seems plenty unstable based on SBCape and the hot sticky 70s dews in the area. Local reliable station is 79/72 . Apt already feels like a furnace and I'm having folks over for some burgers, hopefully we can get an afternoon shower/storm to cool things off some and not mess up the fireworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Seems plenty unstable based on SBCape and the hot sticky 70s dews in the area. Local reliable station is 79/72 . Apt already feels like a furnace and I'm having folks over for some burgers, hopefully we can get an afternoon shower/storm to cool things off some and not mess up the fireworks. 81.9 / 71 MIT green bldg (very reliable source, the tall building in Cambridge with the weather radar dome on top) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The other odd thing is that most of the modeled CAPE today is pretty high up.... like above 500mb. If we can get convection up past that 500mb warm tongue the storms do have decent instability up high to work with. Lightning producers..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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