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Mt. Holly Severe Threats


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I have 20 minutes of video from that sucker taken right from my front porch. It was one hell of a storm...one of the best I've seen in years here. At some point tonight, I'll get it uploaded and post it for all to check out.

Here is the video. Like I said, it was one of the best I've seen in Tamaqua in awhile. The local topography seems to diminish the effects of storms here, but this one held together nicely. It came in like 3 parts. First was the outflow or gust front, then the wind with the rain, and finally the lightning/thunder. A couple of times I thought most of it had passed, only to realize it hadn't.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYWZoE9FqZE

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Here is the video. Like I said, it was one of the best I've seen in tamaqua in awhile. The local topography seems to diminish the effects of storms here, but this one held together nicely. It came in like 3 parts. First was the outflow or gust front, then the wind with the rain, and finally the lightning/thunder. A couple of times I thought most of it had passed, only to realize it hadn't.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYWZoE9FqZE

Great video, that strike at 14:10ish? Epic. lol

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Great video, that strike at 14:10ish? Epic. lol

Thanks!

Check it out starting at 17:25 and watch the back window of my wife's Pathfinder. Good stuff there as well. It was funny, and I edited out my comments that got on "tape" about it, but it seemed like the big strikes would hit wherever I wasn't pointing the camera.

Have to add (for those who don't want to watch from start to finish) that 10:35 was probably the closest strike during the storm.

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Well the worst damage in jersey seemed to go from 195 mile marker 18 through the back roads rt 528 freehold road and down into rt 571 on the toms river boarder. My radar at the time showed some rotating winds for a frame or two. The storm hit and caused the most damage where it ran into the sea breeze front moving west.

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mcd1433.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1147 AM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...MUCH OF MD/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081647Z - 081815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN

COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN WV INTO CNTRL/NRN VA AND MUCH

OF MD/DE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD

ACROSS FAR SRN PA...WHILE S OF THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED

TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM INTO 90S TO AROUND 100F. THE HOT

SURFACE AIRMASS HAS AIDED IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER

DESTABILIZATION...WHILE EML PLUME EMANATING OUT OF THE WRN

CONUS...COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW

70S...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. AS A

RESULT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE

FRONT OVER FAR S-CNTRL PA...WHILE CUMULUS FIELD OBSERVED IN VIS

IMAGERY IS DEEPENING OVER ERN WV/NRN VA. EXPECT THAT BOTH THE FRONT

AND CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE FAVORED AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THOUGH THE REGION RESIDES S OF

STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLYS...DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR

WILL YIELD 20-30 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR

STRONG/SVR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE

HOT/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF

THE MCD AREA.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 07/08/2012

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

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Close to 100,000 without power in Monmouth and Ocean Counties.

I was in Lavallette for the storm and it was one of the most intense storms I've ever seen. Wind reports not far to the west in Toms River were about 75 mph. We were without power from about 11:30 PM Saturday night to 1:45 PM yesterday. Here's video I took of the gust front coming through:

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I was in Lavallette for the storm and it was one of the most intense storms I've ever seen. Wind reports not far to the west in Toms River were about 75 mph. We were without power from about 11:30 PM Saturday night to 1:45 PM yesterday. Here's video I took of the gust front coming through:

Nice video!

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Quiet the convection signal on the 12z euro Looks like it would be over 2 inches through Saturday morning. SPC really liking tomorrows threat should be a good day with all of the instability and dynamics being shown on the models.

I will be geared up and ready to roll. Being it on.

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If the 18z high resolution nam is right severe storms with strong winds and maybe even flash flooding. From the Ohio valley through our area gets hit good both tomorrow and Thursday. With more rounds moving east along the front for Friday.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=07%2F17%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=sim_reflectivity&pdesc=&model=NAM-HIRES&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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If the 18z high resolution nam is right severe storms with strong winds and maybe even flash flooding. From the Ohio valley through our area gets hit good both tomorrow and Thursday. With more rounds moving east along the front for Friday.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Hope that's remotely close to correct... the rain would be nice.

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The impala is ready to roll for another chase. Will tomorrow be a big score and grab yet something awesome to film. Its looking nice. So we shall see.

Are you going to have the soundtrack to the movie "Twister" playing in the background?

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just looking over stuff tomorrow, the instability looks solid in terms of cape and LI, but their isnt much shear. Definitely will be some severe weather with the cold front being the trgger. i don't think it will be a big outbreak do to the lack of shear. The best shot in my eyes for svr storms would be from i78 corridor up to poughkeepsie, ny and ct area where their is better shear and the cape and Li are still conducive for svr storms.

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If the 00z High resloution nam is right could see flash flood watches for Friday evening rush just due to the timing. has localized areas getting several inches of rain. also the regular Nam has 1-2 additional inches for Friday yet again this run. Time will tell but the stalling of this front after tomorrows severe weather is definitively becoming more interesting now.

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Mt. Holly's nighttime AFD.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

THIS TIME FRAME MAY BECOME RATHER ACTIVE IN THE CONVECTION

DEPARTMENT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE CONTINUED

EXCESSIVE HEAT AND ALSO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE

OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE TO OUR

SOUTH GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALONG ITS NORTHERN FLANK. THIS WILL BE IN

RESPONSE TO A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE

SOUTHERN END OF THIS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN

MID ATLANTIC REGION.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST

DURING THE DAY, SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL ARRIVE. IN ADDITION, A COLD

FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BUT THIS MAY BE A SLOW MOVER AS THE

FLOW IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO IT. AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES

ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED

TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THEN BECOME MORE

WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED TO TAKE

PLACE, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR

THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THIS MAY HELP TO FOCUS SOME

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, IT MAY BE LIMITED FOR AWHILE AS CONVECTIVE

INHIBITION HANGS ON FOR A TIME. DESPITE THIS, A RATHER HOT AND HUMID

AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE

PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE, CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND THEN SETTLE

SOUTHEASTWARD. THE STRONGER SHEAR IS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A

WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. GIVEN THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL

DEEP LAYER PROFILES, THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD TEND TO BE IN

CLUSTERS AND LINES. DESPITE THE SHEAR LESSENING WITH A SOUTHERN

EXTENT, A RATHER HOT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP

LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT ASSOCIATED

WIND POTENTIAL. WHILE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT

WITH ANY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID

AIRMASS, UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT

LIGHTNING PRODUCING STORMS. A GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING

POTENTIAL WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS

MOST OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.0 INCHES. THIS IN

COMBINATION OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY

RAINFALL. THE REGION OVERALL REMAINS RATHER DRY WHICH TRANSLATES TO

HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN

POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT

APPEARS LOW AND LOCALIZED THEREFORE NO HEADLINES. A HEAVY RAIN

MENTION HOWEVER WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS

MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER

OUTLOOK.

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