Grothar Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Debris clouds moving in- may hold max temps in check. My pocono high of 99 is shot to hell- still have a shot of record at Allentown if the clouds do not thicken in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Debris clouds moving in- may hold max temps in check. My pocono high of 99 is shot to hell- still have a shot of record at Allentown if the clouds do not thicken in the afternoon I don't think clouds will have much of an impact across extreme SE PA and S. Jerz where the NAM was showing 100+. We shall see.... 97 here just before 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 My car was reading 97 at marple cross roads but in Nether providence it was reading 95 in the back roads with plenty of shade. 100 likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 My Davis says 96.7 with index of 105.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 My Davis says 96.7 with index of 105.6. So my 97 reading from my car is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 A comfy 87 / 69 imby in NW NJ. Pretty thick hazy overcast from storm cluster off to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 97/77 @ 1pm in Little Egg Harbor NJ .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 seems like storms about to enter NW Nj are weakening...maybe outrunning best instability for now? The one cell that developed NE of Williamsport is also diminishing....have to go back to western NY at this time to find a strengthening cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 seems like storms about to enter NW Nj are weakening...maybe outrunning best instability for now? The one cell that developed NE of Williamsport is also diminishing....have to go back to western NY at this time to find a strengthening cluster Thinking there will be a distinct screwzone near PHL where the front passes through during the night, unfortunately. You're not missing out on much though based on what has happened with this front, definitely not slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yikes, very dreadful outside. Could of sworn I saw tumble weed passing around in my backyard. And my air knob control in my car is stuck on heat, and broke off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Thinking there will be a distinct screwzone near PHL where the front passes through during the night, unfortunately. You're not missing out on much though based on what has happened with this front, definitely not slight risk. Reasoning for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Thinking there will be a distinct screwzone near PHL where the front passes through during the night, unfortunately. You're not missing out on much though based on what has happened with this front, definitely not slight risk. The slight risk is valid until 12z Sunday. The height falls and stronger mid to upper level winds still have to settle southward. Storms have struggled so far up north because of the better forcing has not arrived yet. Convective initiation is now taking place across southwestern New York State. Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The slight risk is valid until 12z Sunday. The height falls and stronger mid to upper level winds still have to settle southward. Storms have struggled so far up north because of the better forcing has not arrived yet. Convective initiation is now taking place across southwestern New York State. Give it time. Yup, exactly. Watch being issued for W PA, and if the cells keep the same SE motion they have been taking all day, they should come right through our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I'm not even sure why that watch was issued for our area...seems more logical that most of the severe will occur after 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I'm not even sure why that watch was issued for our area...seems more logical that most of the severe will occur after 7PM. That line that fizzled near you were severe NW of Scranton...the watch made sense for you and points east but personally think the LV was probably better served not in it...they may need to be in a watch later than that (as might you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Holy cloud tops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Complex in N PA already has 75 mph wind reports with it, and looks to head right at our region, barring a turn. As much as I want a good storm, not what we need in South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Dr Greg forbes at the weather channel just tweeted this. A derecho (widespread thunderstorm damaging wind event) could drive from north-central to southeast PA, NJ, MD, DE thie afternoon, evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I'm a little surprised a watch box isn't out for SE PA already. I'd imagine shortly....it's only 3 hours or so from reaching the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I'm a little surprised a watch box isn't out for SE PA already. I'd imagine shortly....it's only 3 hours or so from reaching the area. I agree, I imagine it's coming soon. It's shown no real weakening over the last hour or so, we'll see how she holds up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Dr Greg forbes at the weather channel just tweeted this. A derecho (widespread thunderstorm damaging wind event) could drive from north-central to southeast PA, NJ, MD, DE thie afternoon, evening. Forbes really shouldn't do this...nothing like getting people all frothed up. I've already had to downplay the "d" word on twitter because of it. Will there be severe? Absolutely...but this likely does not develop into a derecho. There's a big difference between a straight up line of severe storms and a derecho event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 storms upstream to the nw are more impressive then what i anticipated, a derecho who knows why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Forbes really shouldn't do this...nothing like getting people all frothed up. I've already had to downplay the "d" word on twitter because of it. Will there be severe? Absolutely...but this likely does not develop into a derecho. There's a big difference between a straight up line of severe storms and a derecho event. I dunno I just looked at the current mesoscale data - MCS maintainence, derecho measures are strong as are CAPE lift and pretty much everything else. Nothing off the charts but way, way better than anytime recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Still, the tops on that line are impressive. Anywhere from 25,000 up to 47,000 as the current time. One storm cell, currently heading toward western Schuylkill County, has 2.25" hail indicated with it per Wunderground. It's going to be an interesting 2-3 hours upcoming for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I dunno I just looked at the current mesoscale data - MCS maintainence, derecho measures are strong as are CAPE lift and pretty much everything else. Nothing off the charts but way, way better than anytime recently. Given that it happened a week ago, it's a pure hype statement. Just call it a line of severe storms and avoid throwing out doom and gloom sh*t. Damage certainly is possible...just think you shouldn't call it one until it reaches that criteria or has bonafide signs of it. This isn't that clear cut... I've seen better looking lines of severe storms NOT called a derecho than what's coming down...and this line's pretty impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Given that it happened a week ago, it's a pure hype statement. Just call it a line of severe storms and avoid throwing out doom and gloom sh*t. Damage certainly is possible...just think you shouldn't call it one until it reaches that criteria or has bonafide signs of it. This isn't that clear cut... I've seen better looking lines of severe storms NOT called a derecho than what's coming down...and this line's pretty impressive.. He certainly got me worried. So you don't think this is a repeat of what DC had 8 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Given that it happened a week ago, it's a pure hype statement. Just call it a line of severe storms and avoid throwing out doom and gloom sh*t. Damage certainly is possible...just think you shouldn't call it one until it reaches that criteria or has bonafide signs of it. This isn't that clear cut... I've seen better looking lines of severe storms NOT called a derecho than what's coming down...and this line's pretty impressive.. I don't know that we yet see the potential for widespread damage that mentioning a derecho would imply....though now that that cluster is moving through the williamsport area we should get some ground truth to better define the threat faced downstream over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Williamsport just got nailed big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I don't know that we yet see the potential for widespread damage that mentioning a derecho would imply....though now that that cluster is moving through the williamsport area we should get some ground truth to better define the threat faced downstream over the next few hours. I'll be next in line. If I'm able to, I'll update on what conditions I observe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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