Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Mt. Holly Severe Threats


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Mid level lapse rates are still pretty meager <6C/km. I'm sure with diurnal heating, the low level lapse rates will kick up a bit as is the normal case. Not too enthused, but we have sufficient Shear in place. As always, we'll see what happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My one pic of the storm. I was getting onto I-81 near McAdoo when it hit. Sorry it's got motion blur in it. I took it with the cell phone and it was so dark, the shutter speed was slow.

Nice picture it doesnt look a lot like motion blur as much as it tried hard to focus on the hood of the truck. But nice picture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

just want to thank Mount Holly and a few local media types for not using the "d" word on air, in social media, or in print. Not sure if this will qualify as one from a technical definition...yeah, it was a pretty bad line overall but the needless hype over any line of storms being a "derecho" is getting nauseating.

Dr. Forbes on TWC called this a serial derecho this morning. According to SPC's web site, "the type of derecho most often encountered during the spring and fall is called a serial derecho. These are produced by multiple bow echoes embedded in an extensive squall line (typically many hundreds of miles long) that sweeps across a very large area, both wide and long. This type of derecho typically is associated with a strong, migratory low pressure system".

I have not seen anything official if this was a type of a derecho.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

post-105-0-74146400-1343394137_thumb.jpg

SPC bumps Philly metro back into slight risk after not having us in one earlier. Consistency FTL...

BTW, third time this week the risk has changed from the 6z to the 12z outlook for the Philly metro. This also happened yesterday (bump to moderate) and on Monday.

I guess they change it back and forth with each model run...great forecasting on their part :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meh. They've been moving their boundaries by like 50 mi each day in their updates. It's not like they are redrawing the whole map. Can't really help that it's right on top of the I-95 corridor.

I get where you are coming from but the 6z update is arguably their most important update because it gets out to the media for am news (ie the "warning/awareness" factor).

I don't think it's an issue from a day 2 to day 1 to change it obviously but to be honest there isn't a whole ton of 12z data in at 8:30-9 AM (the models for 12z don't start up at that point) and you're working off of some level of balloon data...I would think it's not fully in to SPC by that point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dr. Forbes on TWC called this a serial derecho this morning. According to SPC's web site, "the type of derecho most often encountered during the spring and fall is called a serial derecho. These are produced by multiple bow echoes embedded in an extensive squall line (typically many hundreds of miles long) that sweeps across a very large area, both wide and long. This type of derecho typically is associated with a strong, migratory low pressure system".

I have not seen anything official if this was a type of a derecho.

As Forbes very well knows, whether it was serial or not, it has to have a certain distance traveled with a certain length over a certain time producing widespread severe wind reports with SIG SVR too. Obviously yesterday wasn't a derecho and neither was that overnight POS he was tweeting about either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Forbes very well knows, whether it was serial or not, it has to have a certain distance traveled with a certain length over a certain time producing widespread severe wind reports with SIG SVR too. Obviously yesterday wasn't a derecho and neither was that overnight POS he was tweeting about either.

Isn't it time and distance and isn't the threshhold of 600 miles I think?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Forbes very well knows, whether it was serial or not, it has to have a certain distance traveled with a certain length over a certain time producing widespread severe wind reports with SIG SVR too. Obviously yesterday wasn't a derecho and neither was that overnight POS he was tweeting about either.

:lol: HM FTW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lee nice to meet you as well. Michelle was so excited yesterday driving back she wanted to see more. I still haven't reviewed my video.

I wish we could have been in NY for that tornado I think we thought we had more time than we actually did. Let's hope for another shot and have better success. But it was really fun. Great people good chase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol: HM FTW

Dude seriously, between the media hype and the stupidity that is people interpreting SPC products, I think I actually want winter to return. I can't believe I just said that but I can't take much more of this.

Let's think of how this could get worse...oh right...an East Coast tropical storm... that ought to seal the deal as far as me being soo done with the warm season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude seriously, between the media hype and the stupidity that is people interpreting SPC products, I think I actually want winter to return. I can't believe I just said that but I can't take much more of this.

Let's think of how this could get worse...oh right...an East Coast tropical storm... that ought to seal the deal as far as me being soo done with the warm season.

I heard Lisa Mozer once showed a radar of a tropical storm and said that it had great outflow boundaries ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I heard Lisa Mozer once showed a radar of a tropical storm and said that it had great outflow boundaries ;)

lol I think my heart just skipped a beat.

Oh yeah Lisa Mozer! She was known for a good line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude seriously, between the media hype and the stupidity that is people interpreting SPC products, I think I actually want winter to return. I can't believe I just said that but I can't take much more of this.

Let's think of how this could get worse...oh right...an East Coast tropical storm... that ought to seal the deal as far as me being soo done with the warm season.

P07L should make for a great weekend next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a confirmed EF1 Near our chase team yesterday.

That was one of the coolest radar displays I've ever seen in this area. When the supercell out ahead merged with the bow echo, I had to check to make sure I had the right radar up and it wasn't OK or something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude seriously, between the media hype and the stupidity that is people interpreting SPC products, I think I actually want winter to return. I can't believe I just said that but I can't take much more of this.

Let's think of how this could get worse...oh right...an East Coast tropical storm... that ought to seal the deal as far as me being soo done with the warm season.

perhaps it isn't the interpretation thats faulty but the fact that a day 2 threw the d word out there as a headline on Wednesday. Granted, they said possible but once you say that the cat is out of the bag.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...