tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 pretty decent rotation on that torn warned cell just west of owego, ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That thing has good potential for tornadoes given it is out in front, with limited convection to hinder its inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 At what point does a squall line get deemed an actual derecho? I keep reading in various places this thing is moving 50-65 mph hour. I can't see how PHL and ILG miss out on the line.....seems to be south of guidance and definitely moving SSE. Batten down the hatches when it gets here......I'm pretty sure I actually don't want to see a derecho roll through my backyard after witnessing firsthand what the one down south did a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow they considered High Risk on the last Day 1 outlook: ...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/POTENTIAL DERECHO APPEAR TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...OH TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ADJUSTED MODERATE RISK TO ALONG AND AHEAD OF INITIAL QLCS IN SWRN NY TO ERN OH AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BACK IN WRN OH. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO BE MEASURED BY ANY ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...50-55 KT EWD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE AND 18Z PIT/OKX RAOBS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FAST ELY PROPAGATION. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 the torn warned cell by ipt, has 80 mph winds at 3800 ft.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Anyone want to hazard a guess of whether/not the line of storms tracks through Wilmington and Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 the torn warned cell by ipt, has 80 mph winds at 3800 ft.. Ryan and lee and Jim bout to get rocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ABC just dropped the D word. Waranted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hoping that line pushes out a little on the southern side. Could get some discrete development if it happens. Moving into an extremely volatile atmosphere in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 80 plus kt winds witht he cell se of bgm around where ryan and lee are, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Is the chase team between Williamsport and Wilkes Barre? That cell looks Nay-s-t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some solid winds just NW of Harrisburg... In sepa, we should pay attention to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 those storm nw of harrisburg should start getting stronger. They were over lesser shear, but are entering an area with insane thermos and shear of 40-45 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 huge area of 50-80 mph winds from lewistown to bloomsburg, with the strongest winds 80 mph just to the north of mifflintown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 huge area of 50-80 mph winds from lewistown to bloomsburg, with the strongest winds 80 mph just to the north of mifflintown. EHI values of 7 in that area. Not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Same bowing segment that produced a gust to 59 mph at Williamsport Airport is heading straight into the Pocs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 502 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF EAST BERWICK... MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... NESCOPECK AND EAST BERWICK BY 515 PM EDT... BEACH HAVEN BY 520 PM EDT... CONYNGHAM BY 530 PM EDT... DRUMS AND WEST HAZLETON BY 535 PM EDT... FREELAND... WOODSIDE-DRIFTON AND DRIFTON BY 540 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 winds now up to 88 mph at 4000 ft with the storm do north of harrisburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 i'm about to get it... camera time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The meso on the tornado-warned storm is about to enter extreme northern Carbon and Monroe counties. The downburst winds are moving through western Carbon and approaching northern Lehigh and Northampton counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow the numbers are off the hook around lancaster. 4500 j/k ,composites are nuts. I think the storms'll peak in that area and start to weaken a little into PHL (but nothing like the complete fail this morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Statement as of 5:55 PM EDT on July 26, 2012 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District of Columbia Delaware Maryland southern New Jersey northern Virginia West Virginia Panhandle coastal waters Effective this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning from 555 PM until 100 am EDT. Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Staunton Virginia to 50 miles east southeast of Dover Delaware. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou8). Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Other watch information... continue... ww 524... ww 525... ww 526... ww 527... Discussion... trailing portion of expansive qlcs ongoing from the lower Hudson Valley into upper OH valley is expected to progress sewd across watch area this evening. Ambient inflow air mass is hot and moist with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ j/kg. When coupled with a unidirectional... wly wind field... setup will remain supportive of forward propagation of qlcs with an attendant risk for damaging winds and some hail. Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ... Mead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 take with a grain of salt, the hrrr has been hit or miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 STSW Monroe until 6:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN PA TO SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 525... VALID 262204Z - 262330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 525 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 525 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z AND SEVERE TSTM WATCH 527 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SERIOUS CONCERN EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS WITHIN WATCHES 525/527. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WITH A FAST-MOVING SEVERE MCS/DERECHO. DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /QLCS/ CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NY/NORTHEAST PA BORDER VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA...WITH THE FASTEST-MOVING BOWING /NORTHEASTERN/ PORTION OF THE LINE MOVING AS FAST AS 45-50 KT. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET...WITH MODEST QLCS-LEADING PRESSURE FALLS...AND A 20-25 DEG F COLD POOL ALONG WITH 3 MB/2 HR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS PA IN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM WAKE REGION OF THE QLCS. COINCIDENT WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM STATE COLLEGE IS INDICATIVE OF 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 2-6 KM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE QLCS WAKE REGION. WITH ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION AND RESULTANT BOWING LIKELY...OF FURTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON /AS OF 21Z/ IN TANDEM WITH CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THESE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EXISTING ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS/COLD POOL SUGGESTS A VERY HEIGHTENED WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO REMAINING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO/SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ. ..GUYER.. 07/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Like how the bulk of that line by hershey is dropping SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some of the craziest rolling clouds I have ever seen out front of this one...just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow that's a strongly worded MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 2 tractor trailers blown off interstate 80. (LSR) Amazing storm here, but nothing severe. 30 to 40 MPH winds continued for 15 minutes. saw what appeared to be 2 cloud to ground lightning strikes just to the SW...and this didn't even occur until after those 15 minutes. definately a storm to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Northampton county getting rocked again, damaging winds across most of that area. Warren and Hunterdon will be impacted by this portion. Berks/ Lehigh about to see some good action as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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