yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Was wondering about PDS myself, given the probs in the Outlook. Won't have to wait long to find out. kpantz!11!! You need to post more... I miss your posts To keep on topic, I dont think they really issue PDS STW's that much anymore. We didnt have a PDS STW down in DC area on 6/29 when the serial derecho was ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chase team enroute. was thinking of doing the ChaserTv thing, but probably won't have time. Plus, have had issues with their software a couple times. It'll be video captured either way whatever happens around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 kpantz!11!! You need to post more... I miss your posts To keep on topic, I dont think they really issue PDS STW's that much anymore. We didnt have a PDS STW down in DC area on 6/29 when the serial derecho was ongoing Yeah, I don't have much time for anything these days! I still lurk from time to time, though. You could make the counter-argument that given the relative surprise in the general public associated with recent storms, SPC could err on the side of caution and make sure people take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SPC refreshed the PWO - holds serve. Expanded some of the coverage, including much more of NJ. Permalink: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/pwo_201207261639.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 For those who are chasing, I will be riding I-81, PA 309, and PA 100 after 2:00PM. Wave hi if you see a white Mack daycab pulling a shiny 45ft tank trailer. Bit OT: Is than an MC 306? You hauling HazMat or Food Grade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 kpantz!11!! You need to post more... I miss your posts To keep on topic, I dont think they really issue PDS STW's that much anymore. We didnt have a PDS STW down in DC area on 6/29 when the serial derecho was ongoing There should've been. The current meso discussion may lead to one, although the one further east is likely to be a tornado watch with high wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 really doubtin' the upper 90's for highs too. it's 81 at noon. Can see 95 though...that seems much easier to pull off. Sun's out in the city now. Temps up to 85, +~4 degrees in an hour or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun's out in the city now. Temps up to 85, +~4 degrees in an hour or so... PHL is only 83...two in an hr. (PNE did jump from 81 to 85). Gonna need 12 in 4 to get to 95 at PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice high wind probs (>95, 70) in WW524. Interesting that tornado warnings are already flying in NE OH and NW PA. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0524.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 As per their Fb page, Pittsburgh WFO released a special 18z balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 pretty clear hook echo on the last few frames of the Buffalo radar, crossing the PA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 North of wilks barre now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 New MD for primarily just north of the PHI CWA. To my eyes, this would be the prime spot for tornado development if there is to be any, yet the MD wording seems to telegraph a STW. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1603.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ...aaaaaaand it's a tornado watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0525.html PHI CWA will have to be next (though not for a few hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 HRRR has thunderstorms firing up across Chester County around dinner time!! http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus15min/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_15min:&runTime=2012072615&plotName=cref15min_t3sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 HRRR has thunderstorms firing up across Chester County around dinner time!! http://rapidrefresh....omain=t3&wjet=1 LOL - and the Easton screw zone holds! Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ...aaaaaaand it's a tornado watch. http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0525.html PHI CWA will have to be next (though not for a few hours). camera is a chargin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well cape is increasing as the CIN is eroding. Liking the look of that line out west. Def can cross off 6-6-2010 style bust. Still have to see how far south the actual line reaches. But the new HRRR popping discrete cells in chesco would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm gonna be a complete dork now... Fixed: camera phaser is a chargin. Between this and someone else posting "here it comes", I can't help but want to say "shields up, weapons ready" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 so this is what we are wating for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CCX radar just went down again. It was down all day yesterday while it was "fixed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (50%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1606.html Mesoscale Discussion 1606 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...ERN WV...DC...MD...DE. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261908Z - 262115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER THIS AREA...AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SE OF WW 524. BEING NEAR SRN PERIPHERY OF FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUFFICIENT TSTM ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT WW...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND MRGL SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY LEE TROUGH WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE NEAR FDK-LYH-MTV LINE. FARTHER E...BETTER-DEFINED CONFLUENCE BAND WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN RDU-RIC-DCA THEN NEWD OVER HARFORD COUNTY MD. AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES HAS HEATED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 3000-4500 J/KG. THIS IS DERIVED FROM MODIFIED 12Z AND 18Z RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...DISCOUNTING SITES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH/80S F SFC DEW POINTS. 18Z IAD RAOB INDICATED WEAK CINH STILL REMAINING...AS WELL AS STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 500-650 MB...EACH OF WHICH MAY BE MITIGATING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION/GROWTH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS INVOF EITHER BOUNDARY. VIS IMAGERY ACCORDINGLY DEPICTS PATCHES OF DEEPENING CU/TCU BETWEEN I-95 CORRIDOR AND BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIC. VWP AND OBSERVED/FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...NERN KY...WV...PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 261937Z - 262130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF STG-SVR TSTMS NOW OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON...DOWNSHEAR FOR ERN PA EWD TOWARD SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC METRO AREA. DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP SEGMENTS...WAS EVIDENT AT 1930Z FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NY SWWD TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY OH...BECOMING MORE BKN SWWD OVER SERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING EWD 40-50 KT...WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS AS COLD-POOL SURGES OCCUR...AND WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...PER 18Z RAOBS. HOWEVER...STG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS FCST...WITH LOW-LEVEL WLYS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT. AS SUCH...FAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OVER CT/RI/LONG ISLAND. THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OVER ERN/NRN PA INTO SERN NY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WITH SLGT VEERING IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL INVOF WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... LAT...LON 38798495 39988466 41618313 42337923 42057718 41177637 41467396 42007191 41227146 40737280 40487399 39877405 39337436 38917499 39307537 39727589 39497809 38787969 38148113 38348404 38798495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This sucks KCCX went down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 293 WWUS30 KWNS 261955 SAW7 SPC AWW 261955 WW 527 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA CW 262000Z - 270300Z AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE.. 25NNE GON/GROTON CT/ - 65NW ILG/WILMINGTON DE/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /20W PVD - 26ENE HAR/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045. LAT...LON 40727186 39407645 41277645 42597186 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0527.html WOUS64 KWNS 261955 WOU7 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC011-013-015-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-119-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK WESTCHESTER PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-450-451-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY NEW YORK HARBOR PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BOX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GROTON CONNECTICUT TO 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526... DISCUSSION...A LINE OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH FAST LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND IN THE MORE INTENSE BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just some raw #'s out there between thermos and shear profiles: Those #'s are in the 120 Range.. Dont think I've seen them that high in our neck of the woods in a long time! And what a beauty of a sat pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 that area from pit to unv has a huge area of 60-70 mph winds in that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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