tombo82685 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I gotta edit my signature lines. also, you have a little bit of redundancy in that statement...leader and chief are the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 also, you have a little bit of redundancy in that statement...leader and chief are the same thing... Fixed any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Looks like if we see anything tonight along the warm front/ boundary it would be from the convection firing up in Michigan. HRRR has a complex forming out of it moving southeast. Will I am a bit concerned with the weak mid level lapse rates. Mu cape looks to try and move in later on will see how that goes. I still like our threat being after midnight for elevated storms if we do see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It sure looks like those storms (if the line holds together) will be here long before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 It sure looks like those storms (if the line holds together) will be here long before midnight. The GFS and NAM had a broader area of relatively weak storms earlier in the period, some of the other models fizzled out this first batch and developed something derecho like moving out of the lakes overnight. Radar seems to be voting for the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The GFS and NAM had a broader area of relatively weak storms earlier in the period, some of the other models fizzled out this first batch and developed something derecho like moving out of the lakes overnight. Radar seems to be voting for the GFS... Derecho like? A lot of people on different subforums are screaming derecho about every little thing they see on the models now. Not every complex being shown on the models is a derecho, lol. There's a reason why derecho's don't happen very often. Funny, no one ever talked about them before, but now since we got our 100 year storm, everybody is hyping them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Derecho like? A lot of people on different subforums are screaming derecho about every little thing they see on the models now. Not every complex being shown on the models is a derecho, lol. There's a reason why derecho's don't happen very often. Funny, no one ever talked about them before, but now since we got our 100 year storm, everybody is hyping them. At best this cluster shown on the GFS is at most an MCS like feature not a Derecho. Fizzles it out just near or over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 A lot of people on different subforums are screaming derecho about every little thing they see on the models now. Not every complex being shown on the models is a derecho, lol. I've noticed this as well. I'd be more than happy with a heavy downpour or "strong" thunderstorm in the next 24 hours...lots of people are becoming greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Not so sure the complex developing in northwest pa and over lake Erie will make it here. Elevated instability is currently weak but trying to spread southeast. None the less it is going to be pretty close. As stated above it could very well fall apart right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Not so sure the complex developing in northwest pa and over lake Erie will make it here. Elevated instability is currently weak but trying to spread southeast. None the less it is going to be pretty close. As stated above it could very well fall apart right over us. What is the speed of the system? A guess looks like 30-40mph? In any event, it is slow enough here, at least for 2 balloonist who must not be concerned with even a minor gust front as a threat. Forget the data, this is a nowcast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 What is the speed of the system? A guess looks like 30-40mph? In any event, it is slow enough here, at least for 2 balloonist who must not be concerned with even a minor gust front as a threat. Forget the data, this is a nowcast! New warning in NW pa says moving southeast at 45mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I guess I thought the line that fizzled was the one that might arrive at around midnight. Guess I'll keep my eyes to the northwest, but I'm not expecting much, though I'm hoping for a nice fireworks display 24 hours early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 Derecho like? A lot of people on different subforums are screaming derecho about every little thing they see on the models now. Not every complex being shown on the models is a derecho, lol. There's a reason why derecho's don't happen very often. Funny, no one ever talked about them before, but now since we got our 100 year storm, everybody is hyping them. Sorry, I'll run my posts by you in the future. I was a little loose on derecho/MCS language. The complex that just fell apart that I've been talking about all day was in western Michigan early this AM, so that certainly qualifies it as a long duration event, probably made it 400 miles. It is running along the edge of the upper jet, which certainly makes it an MCS. No high straight line wind reports so i guess you win, no derecho. There used to be a really good poster whose handle was derecho. That was probably a decade ago, so you know, derecho's do come up now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 I guess I thought the line that fizzled was the one that might arrive at around midnight. Guess I'll keep my eyes to the northwest, but I'm not expecting much, though I'm hoping for a nice fireworks display 24 hours early! The RPM model stormspotter talked about earlier in the day had exactly this scenario. Storm 1 fizzles out in central PA, storm two forms north and west and makes it just about to Philly's doorstep before fizzling. The new storms in NW PA look to pass west of Philly to me, but they are a long way away, we'll see. Haven't looked at any recent parameters, the numbers in the late afternoon were miserable for SE PA (or great if you like more dry weather) so I am pretty skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The RPM model stormspotter talked about earlier in the day had exactly this scenario. Storm 1 fizzles out in central PA, storm two forms north and west and makes it just about to Philly's doorstep before fizzling. The new storms in NW PA look to pass west of Philly to me, but they are a long way away, we'll see. Haven't looked at any recent parameters, the numbers in the late afternoon were miserable for SE PA (or great if you like more dry weather) so I am pretty skeptical. Those Cells look the healthiest they have been since they formed and ramped up one time. I like their direction also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 since we are on the topic of derechos, thought this would be useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 since we are on the topic of derechos, thought this would be useful Nice map. I would have guessed 1 in 10 years around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The RPM model stormspotter talked about earlier in the day had exactly this scenario. Storm 1 fizzles out in central PA, storm two forms north and west and makes it just about to Philly's doorstep before fizzling. The new storms in NW PA look to pass west of Philly to me, but they are a long way away, we'll see. Haven't looked at any recent parameters, the numbers in the late afternoon were miserable for SE PA (or great if you like more dry weather) so I am pretty skeptical. the nam has shown this complex as sliding across the northern tier of pa and hitting nyc.... looks like it will be off on the trajectory. Like everyone else is saying and the models are showing im not sure how good this will be when it gets here. The surface based cape is increasing and pushing east with the warm front. That may be the only thing going for it. The LI is anemic, the lapse rates are bad. Their is some decent shear out in central and western pa in the order of 35 kts, not sure if that works its way southeast, that would help if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 Nice map. I would have guessed 1 in 10 years around here. I'd guess it's probabilistic so you get two in a week and nothing for ten years. In other news, the GFS from 180 on out is really wet. That's good news, cause if we dont get something in the next 24 hours, its gonna be a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Nice map. I would have guessed 1 in 10 years around here. the thing though you would have to see with this map is what they classify a derecho as. Like you i was shocked to see 1 every 2 years, cause i can;t remember the last one that affected the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I'd guess it's probabilistic so you get two in a week and nothing for ten years. In other news, the GFS from 180 on out is really wet. That's good news, cause if we dont get something in the next 24 hours, its gonna be a while. the 12z euro through 10 days only has .1-.25 of rain...eeek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 the thing though you would have to see with this map is what they classify a derecho as. Like you i was shocked to see 1 every 2 years, cause i can;t remember the last one that affected the region. Yeah, I remember 98' which nailed all of the Northeast.....then I figured there was probably 1, if not 2 between 2000-2011. So, that's 2-3 in roughly 14 years......or 1 in 5-7 years. 1 in 4 years, or 1 in 2 years is definetely more than I thought. Like you said though, the intensity of the derecho for those maps is unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Not sure if it would be classified as a derecho or not for the purposes of climatology on the map, but I do recall a pretty good thunderstorm complex coming through Memorial Day weekend of 2011, early in the morning in central NJ... early like 6am early on the 30th corrected year to 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Decent sized MCS moving through Central PA. Let's see if it can make it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Looks like each time it throws off an Outflow Boundry its Growing back more storms as it heads eat to east south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Nice map. I would have guessed 1 in 10 years around here. There were years (1998) where we had two derechos pass pretty close to the region -- one caused the severe outbreak that dropped a F3 in Berks County, second was the Labor Day event. '98 makes up for the years where we don't get any at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 There were years (1998) where we had two derechos pass pretty close to the region -- one caused the severe outbreak that dropped a F3 in Berks County, second was the Labor Day event. '98 makes up for the years where we don't get any at all. Yeah, I was in western NY for round #1. I know round #2 rolled through the Philly and NYC area from what I've seen in archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 HRRR shows some activity for some of the area around 8PM or so. We picked up 0.02 with the early morning "rain"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Yeah, I was in western NY for round #1. I know round #2 rolled through the Philly and NYC area from what I've seen in archives. Here's the Labor Day '98 one above....5/31/98 is below...it was fizzling some as it reached NY State but more storms fired up in its wake. Source: http://gis.ncdc.noaa...326&nexrad=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 FWIW that screwy rap model has 9-9.5 low lapse rates this afternoon. Watching the convection in northwest pa again today will see what it does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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