LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Waiting for the update on the 16:30z update for day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Waiting for the update on the 16:30z update for day 2. *17:30z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 *17:30z Ah thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Sorry I didn't get back to you yesterday. I always thought that only SPC had the jurisdiction to produce watches. If you look at the status report http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ws0510.html it does identify Chester County there. Oh well, maybe better luck tomorrow. Scroll down to the bottom and it wasn't on the initial...but every other status report had it. Methinks Mt Holly pushed to include them...I don't think it was a bad move but the SPC hasn't lit the world on fire lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I feel so safe As far as SE PA goes, even though we get warm sectored, and have very favorable severe parameters, the models continue to show storms struggling to make it to our area. Not too excited for our chances attm. And by the way, some of the soundings being spit out for NEPA, NYC area are just insane. I'm expecting another poof day for us. Storms look good then POOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Its go time for a lot of people per Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Day 2 outlook. Whoa. Sh*t just got real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow! Whoa, that is the highest I can remember seeing for this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Whoa, that is the highest I can remember seeing for this location. For a day 2 hatched.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LEAN chase team ready for action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I've come to not expect to see anything severe, regardless of the percentages/progged dynamics, but some heavy downpours would be awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Chase team locked and loaded. I hope to get video like they did in Maryland!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Chase team locked and loaded. I hope to get video like they did in Maryland!!! Jim with your knowledge of the region that should give us a key advantage. I am praying to god for help on a successful chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 We might get screwed tomorrow in Philly...12z hi-res NAM shows a morning warm-front enhanced MCS pushing down through the region, weakening as it gets to Philadelphia. However, the clouds/junk may preclude SE PA from getting in on a second round in the afternoon/evening. http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/cloop.html (don't throw stuff at me...I'm merely showing the model...and high res sometimes does very well in getting the picture right) This event looks REALLY good from UNV to IPT to MPO...wouldn't be surprised if Central/NE PA get PDS'd tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 From villanova we should head north to the 80s...intersection of 80-81 and go from there. There's a lot of prime viewing on 80 by Bloomsburg and every exit has gas stations with canopies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thank you NWS PHI for NOT throwing around the d word: THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PASSING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES IN ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 3000 J/KG IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, SO ANY CONVECTION THERE MAY WAIT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK DOWN TO A LINE FROM AROUND THE BAY BRIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS DOVER, DELAWARE TO OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RISK AREA WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. IN REGARD TO THE HEAT, IT WILL BECOME QUITE WARM ON THURSDAY AS HOT AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. BY THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA SHOULD RISE INTO THE +21C TO +23C RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 90S EXCEPT IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH DEW POINT READINGS INCREASING TO AROUND 70, WE ARE COMING UP WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 100 FROM ABOUT READING TO DOYLESTOWN TO NEW BRUNSWICK AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LINE, EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. WE HAVE GONE WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA TO COVER HIGHLY URBANIZED LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, SKIRTING OUR MORE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS DROP TO CHANCE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT IT LACKS ANY REAL MOMENTUM AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY ZONAL LOOKING. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION BUT IT APPEARS TO GET WASHED OUT AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH PUSH TO THIS BOUNDARY, OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME 100S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE MUGGY OUT AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ARE EXPECTED AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, MAINLY ACROSS OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. NOT MUCH OF CAP EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, THERE SHOULDN'T MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRETTY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTION IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY. WITH PWATS RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES WE AGAIN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONT BUT THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG DURING THE DAY IN SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOL A BIT BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS OUT ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH REMAINS IN OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just saying..new SREFs Sorry Tom, just had to put it out there! Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 We might get screwed tomorrow in Philly...12z hi-res NAM shows a morning warm-front enhanced MCS pushing down through the region, weakening as it gets to Philadelphia. However, the clouds/junk may preclude SE PA from getting in on a second round in the afternoon/evening. http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/cloop.html (don't throw stuff at me...I'm merely showing the model...and high res sometimes does very well in getting the picture right) This event looks REALLY good from UNV to IPT to MPO...wouldn't be surprised if Central/NE PA get PDS'd tomorrow. That's pretty much been the story all season, no reason to believe otherwise this time. It seems similar to the winter cliche, it storms where it wants to storm. Unfortunately, we're stuck in the middle. Happy to not have to deal with storm damage, but not happy to when I open the water bill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just saying..new SREFs Sorry Tom, just had to put it out there! Sent from my iPad HD Not sure how to read this as it is so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 We might get screwed tomorrow in Philly...12z hi-res NAM shows a morning warm-front enhanced MCS pushing down through the region, weakening as it gets to Philadelphia. However, the clouds/junk may preclude SE PA from getting in on a second round in the afternoon/evening. http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/cloop.html (don't throw stuff at me...I'm merely showing the model...and high res sometimes does very well in getting the picture right) This event looks REALLY good from UNV to IPT to MPO...wouldn't be surprised if Central/NE PA get PDS'd tomorrow. i pretty much agree, though i dont think the clouds muck it up. Just think down here the cap will be a little to strong and by the time it breaks and the front proximity being further north just doesn't bode well for us timing wise. Friday we may have a better shore from abe south. We may get a couple cells that pop around here but nothing like up in the pocs and central pa for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Friday looks like a scattered around kind of day (like Tuesday, or similar to that) to my eye and to what the high res stuff is pimping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LEAN Team plus RobbTC and Jim are headed NORTH TOMORROW. We may have to be renamed the Tri-State Chase team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Have fun chasing! I'm actually heading down to Columbia, Maryland (a little SW of Baltimore) to hang out with some friends until Sunday, so I'll probably be even less likely than everyone else in our subforum to see severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Despite the possibility of a shaft/screw zone nearby today, there could be a line that pops that impacts South Jersey...NAM wants to fire something up near Philly and blow this up a pretty good event in South Jersey. To be clear, the worst of the storms will be north of the city but it's possible Philly does indeed get in on the fun later....it just may be that the screw zone is over me and Parsley. the 6z NAM does not show this pop up line near Philly but brings the northern line down near Philly. 18z yesterday did. Just something to keep an eye on...if you chasing your best bets are AVP-IPT-UNV down to MDT...anywhere in there should be a good range to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Im not sure whats going to happen that stuff west of harrisburg is.not suppose to be there. that cloud mass could screw things up for a good amount of the svr region. will be interesting to see if that blob holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Im not sure whats going to happen that stuff west of harrisburg is.not suppose to be there. that cloud mass could screw things up for a good amount of the svr region. will be interesting to see if that blob holds together. high res NAM did a great job of picking it up yesterday (was on the 12z). This stuff was in Ohio last night (where it popped up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Despite the possibility of a shaft/screw zone nearby today, there could be a line that pops that impacts South Jersey...NAM wants to fire something up near Philly and blow this up a pretty good event in South Jersey. To be clear, the worst of the storms will be north of the city but it's possible Philly does indeed get in on the fun later....it just may be that the screw zone is over me and Parsley. That's sort of the way the summer has gone. Big storms find a way to fire up across south Jersey while most our area (especially those in the far NW burbs) have missed out on most of the big threats this summer. It will be interesting to see if this happens again. This morning activity sure isn't going to help matters for stuff firing up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ACUS01 KWNS 261222 SWODY1 SPC AC 261219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM OK TO WI...AND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING... A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER NW MN THIS MORNING...AND THIS WAVE IS PRECEDED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA AND MCV/S THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE OH VALLEY/PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PERSIST THIS MORNING FROM NRN IL/INDIANA ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG AND N OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS FARTHER E INTO PA/SRN NY IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WAA. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING SEWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA/SE LOWER MI. THE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PA/SRN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J PER KG/ AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALLOW NEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA/OH AND W/NW PA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL THEN GROW QUICKLY INTO MULTIPLE BANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PA TOWARD SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ESEWD TOWARD NRN WV/MD...IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THE MAIN CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY... DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NY AND ADJACENT AREAS...WHERE EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MULTIPLE SWATHS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND 35-45 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY... THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/MO/IL...JUST NW OF I-44. THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NW...LINGERING CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM IL TO OK...SUGGESTING THAT MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD IL...AND PULSE-TYPE STORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO OK. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL WI BY AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF THE BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 07/26/2012 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Bump up to Moderate for SE PA.....Something to this or SPC just getting hopes up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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