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Mt. Holly Severe Threats


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The svr parameters on thurs afternoon are absolutely insane. I have never seen them like this for the region.

sufficient shear over the region from 30 kts to over 50kts

NAM_221_2012072418_F45_SHRM_700_MB.png

the ehi is probably the highest i have seen in this area in a while ranging in the 3-5 range... you need 2.5 or higher for it to be conducive for super cells

NAM_221_2012072418_F48_EHI_1000_M.png

the helicity is in the 200-300 range

NAM_221_2012072418_F45_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

good cape and Li

NAM_221_2012072418_F48_CAPE_90_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png

NAM_221_2012072418_F48_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png

the issue is though, we are capped, so all those indices mean nada

NAM_221_2012072418_F48_CIN_90_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png

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The svr parameters on friday are absolutely insane. I have never seen them like this for the region.

sufficient shear over the region from 30 kts to over 50kts

the ehi is probably the highest i have seen in this area in a while ranging in the 3-5 range... you need 2.5 or higher for it to be conducive for super cells

the helicity is in the 200-300 range

good cape and Li

the issue is though, we are capped, so all those indices mean nada

Not to mention, we're talking about the NAM 3 days out.

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Radar detecting very strong winds over Newfield,

possibly close to 70 mph, 616 PM KDOX. About

to impact North Vineland, Buena, Richland. Hail

is also possible northeast of the hook.

Great storm, had probably 50-60 tops where I was in Newfield, trees down in Franklin Twp.

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Great storm, had probably 50-60 tops where I was in Newfield, trees down in Franklin Twp.

KDIX at 544 PM suggested the storm was turning severe, the warning was issued at

557 PM as it approached Franklinville. It became briefly supercellular near Newfield,

before weakening after the downburst reached the ground. It seems as though nearly

every storm that you venture after peaks in intensity right where you set-up position.

Certainly valuable from a spotter report/first responder perspective.

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Some kind of dry front rushing through central Somerset County right now, suddenly lots and lots of wind, dark clouds overhead, but nothing more. Temp not going down either.

I'm in Piscataway, dame thing here. Showed up on radar too. Kind of strange.

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KDIX at 544 PM suggested the storm was turning severe, the warning was issued at

557 PM as it approached Franklinville. It became briefly supercellular near Newfield,

before weakening after the downburst reached the ground. It seems as though nearly

every storm that you venture after peaks in intensity right where you set-up position.

Certainly valuable from a spotter report/first responder perspective.

Yea man, I've been extremely lucky in that fact, I seem to get on a cell right when it peaks. It had a massive what looked to be a wall cloud, when I first turned onto Route 40, but couldn't get a good shot of it until it changed structure some. Awesome storm for a day I wasn't expecting anything.

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Sorry I didn't get back to you yesterday. I always thought that only SPC had the jurisdiction to produce watches. If you look at the status report http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ws0510.html it does identify Chester County there. Oh well, maybe better luck tomorrow.

It's odd. The SPC text doesn't have it but the WCM from PHI does. Did PHI decide to include them?

http://www.spc.noaa....ch/wou0510.html

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The LEAN chase team might be out tomorrow.

I feel so safe

As far as SE PA goes, even though we get warm sectored, and have very favorable severe parameters, the models continue to show storms struggling to make it to our area. Not too excited for our chances attm.

And by the way, some of the soundings being spit out for NEPA, NYC area are just insane.

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I feel so safe

As far as SE PA goes, even though we get warm sectored, and have very favorable severe parameters, the models continue to show storms struggling to make it to our area. Not too excited for our chances attm.

And by the way, some of the soundings being spit out for NEPA, NYC area are just insane.

Thus why the LEAN team will be out In force.

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To further elaborate on Friday, check these out:

ad31061b-084a-c115.jpg

ad31061b-0851-9c99.jpg

ad31061b-0858-70ce.jpg

ad31061b-085e-96d4.jpg

ad31061b-087d-bcb7.jpg

I mean, these are about as good as any number / looks as you'll see for our area, but as you can see on the Vorticity map, not much lift to ignite the fuel load.

The only thing I can see happening down our way, is to get some type of lee trough to develop off any type of Thursday night convection that makes it to our area. Otherwise, we have a bomb with no fuse.

Sent from my iPad HD

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I feel so safe

As far as SE PA goes, even though we get warm sectored, and have very favorable severe parameters, the models continue to show storms struggling to make it to our area. Not too excited for our chances attm.

And by the way, some of the soundings being spit out for NEPA, NYC area are just insane.

Seems to be the story of our summer around here.....always one missing ingredient even though many of the others are in play......no sheer, no CAPE, no lift now.

Fall and the end of the heat cannot come quick enough.

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