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Mt. Holly Severe Threats


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unless the line starts to refuel, it's going to be pretty meh for the city/SNJ...

should get rain, but i wouldn't bank on widespread svr. The lack of shear and the blowing off of the anvils way out ahead of the storms hurt the instability further east. atleast thats what my .02 cents thinks.

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should get rain, but i wouldn't bank on widespread svr. The lack of shear and the blowing off of the anvils way out ahead of the storms hurt the instability further east. atleast thats what my .02 cents thinks.

Agreed. The tops got too far out in front of the storms and collapsed them. It is pulse type activity so they could pulse up again on the outflow boundary

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Agreed. The tops got too far out in front of the storms and collapsed them. It is pulse type activity so they could pulse up again on the outflow boundary

That would put the Storms into NJ where they would reform or pulse back up since its still kinda sunny out there in Southern NJ.

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That would put the Storms into NJ where they would reform or pulse back up since its still kinda sunny out there in Southern NJ.

Ehh.........here in Williamstown (15 miles south of PHL), it's been clouded over for the past 45 minutes or so -- the plants could used the water though, so just hoping for a garden variety thunderstorm.

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lots of pulse activity with these storms...weaken/strengthen rinse & repeat.

Yeah, more challenging from a warning standpoint. We have seen some downburst signatures on radar, with the strongest one at this point seen earlier in Middlesex County via the EWR terminal doppler.

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Look at current meso data radar and water vapor it appears as if moderate to heavy rainfall banding is breaking out and will continue to grow instead off a severe wx threat now.

1. Forcing and potential precip placement is growing.

peff_sf.gif?1342644544882

2. Pw values are at2 or 2+ for a large area so there is plenty of moisture in place.

pwtr_sf.gif?1342644648039

Finally looking at radar we can see it is filling in out in south central pa and that the pre frontal boundary appears to have slowed down.

http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php

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This thing's falling apart faster than the Phillies season. At least temp dropped from 98 to 82.

Central NJ and Eastern Shore look like the next winners. Was hoping that blob in Lancaster/York counties would move this way, but it's shrinking too.

As others have said, clouds seem to really push down the instability. Oh well, sounds like more hope to come in the next couple of days.

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