stormspotterlive Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Holy mother of god we need the rain but not this much. Most likely overdone evening though forcing maybe strong Friday and pwats will be very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 back to 15% odds on wind/hail on the day 1 spc. Friday could be a bit ugly if that low/mcs tracks overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Today the bulls eye looks north up toward the PA/NY border. We'll have the CAPE but they'll have the shear and upper air working for them. 87 here at 8:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 back to 15% odds on wind/hail on the day 1 spc. Friday could be a bit ugly if that low/mcs tracks overhead. makes total sense. As i said last night we have the instability but we dont have much shear. Up north they still have good instability and better shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 back to 15% odds on wind/hail on the day 1 spc. Friday could be a bit ugly if that low/mcs tracks overhead. Northern Bucks and LV are still in 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 so is this looking like a lock and load for friday? euro on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 so is this looking like a lock and load for friday? euro on board? yea 0z euro has .75-1.5 for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 yea 0z euro has .75-1.5 for friday thanks tom, tee time cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Storms are starting to fire in Western PA in a line from DuBois to Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This day is starting up fast already a meso out saying a watch is coming. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1489.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 This day is starting up fast already a meso out saying a watch is coming. http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1489.html Excellent: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Count me as sceptical about Friday. Having an MCS persist into the afternoon as depicted would be pretty unusual for this corner of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA/NJ TO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 181425Z - 181630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR MUCH OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND BY 15Z-16Z. DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM LAKE ERIE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STEADILY WARMING AMID RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F. INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA AS OF 14Z. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL AIDE OF NEAR-COASTAL/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUCH AS BUF/ALB/OKX...MUCH OF THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT /30-50 KT 3-6 KM/ AND COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/. WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LIKELIHOOD OF 2000-3500 J/KG SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS...AND THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES/SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Never got below 83 at my house last night in Pittston. Already near 90 now. On afternoon storm patrol for wnep in Luzerne county!! If anything bad happens we will be there in the greater Wilkes-Barre metro! Stay tuned!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Watch just issued for NYC and SNE. The probs aren't out yet, but my guess is the WFOs couldn't agree on a consensus of probs (with north wanting higher and south wanting lower) so they decided to split it into two WWs. Ours should be out soon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Back in the 30% wind probs. Also, some damn impressive thermos popping out there per SPC meso : Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Storms firing in C Pa are headed this way. Plenty of juice - mixed layer Cape - 3500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Just got the txt. Watch issued SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Just got the txt. Watch issued SE PA SEL1 0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WILKESBARRE PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS HOT AND HUMID WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000+ J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PW VALUES...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31020. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0491.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Over 5000 J/KG SBCAPE in SE PA. Pretty rare to see those values around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Over 5000 J/KG SBCAPE in SE PA. Pretty rare to see those values around here. With no shear, it's hard to see a sustained squall line/derecho forming, but the front ends of wet microbursts are going to be for real, y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Over 5000 J/KG SBCAPE in SE PA. Pretty rare to see those values around here. And with an approaching trigger it's even rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 And with an approaching trigger it's even rarer. Do we have just the cold front or do we also have a s/w coming through also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 With no shear, it's hard to see a sustained squall line/derecho forming, but the front ends of wet microbursts are going to be for real, y'all After seeing what happened 3 weeks ago, I'm fine with not getting a derecho...a strong thunderstorm is okay with me on a day like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Celljust went severe west of Pottsville. Liking the proximity to SE PA with these storms. They're really gonna tap into the prime time thermos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Celljust went severe west of Pottsville. Liking the proximity to SE PA with these storms. They're really gonna tap into the prime time thermos. Anyone have insight into timing? 3-4 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Anyone have insight into timing? 3-4 hours? This is my concern watching the radar to our west that they hit the metro area in earnest at drive time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 sunny and explosive thunder just now. probably not a good combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This is my concern watching the radar to our west that they hit the metro area in earnest at drive time... Yeah i have multiple family members that could be on the road at the time they look to roll through so If i can tell them to delay a bit I want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 That storm near Pottsville is making a beeline for Allentown. Looks like some decent-sized hail with it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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