Maximum lawman Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well, I've been around since the WWBB days but I don't think I ever started a thread. If I don't get warned in the next two weeks I promise to never start another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Thanks! I don't think I've started a thread, so I was scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 So the 4th looks interesting slight risk so far most of the forecasted region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 We were in a day 3 slight risk for Friday last Wednesday, and we know how that worked out. Could be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Vice president Biden to attend Scranton fireworks Wednesday night....things could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 18z Nam looks like it is coming in with the early AM convection like the GFS had last night. Maybe an early day mcs or something before the afternoon fireworks provided by mother nature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 18z Nam looks like it is coming in with the early AM convection like the GFS had last night. Maybe an early day mcs or something before the afternoon fireworks provided by mother nature? I like that. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 18z Nam looks like it is coming in with the early AM convection like the GFS had last night. Maybe an early day mcs or something before the afternoon fireworks provided by mother nature? NAM's been hinting at it for a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I like that. Bring it on. Can we score a TD? Or do we have to settle for a FG? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Can we score a TD? Or do we have to settle for a FG? lol blocked fg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Vice president Biden to attend Scranton fireworks Wednesday night....things could get interesting. ISWYDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Sorry to be a Debby Downer, but I'm not that excited about Wednesday. Looking at the 0z NAM for KPHL, You have weak mid level lapse rates (850-500 mb lapse rates of 6.4 C/km...which is okay, but if you really want hail, you're looking for a 7), very little vertical shear (0-6 km shear speed maxes at 21.5 kts at 21z...given somewhat of a turning from W at the surface to NW at 500 mb, your 0-6 km shear vector *might* approach 30 kts, but probably will be below 25 kts. ouch.), and no help from LCLs, which are in the 1200-1800 m range between 18z and 0z. You also have morning convection potentially screwing things up. What you DO have is high CAPE values of around 3000 J/kg, and PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches, which given slow steering flow and associated splitting storms, flash flooding may be a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Sorry to be a Debby Downer, but I'm not that excited about Wednesday. Looking at the 0z NAM for KPHL, You have weak mid level lapse rates (850-500 mb lapse rates of 6.4 C/km...which is okay, but if you really want hail, you're looking for a 7), very little vertical shear (0-6 km shear speed maxes at 21.5 kts at 21z...given somewhat of a turning from W at the surface to NW at 500 mb, your 0-6 km shear vector *might* approach 30 kts, but probably will be below 25 kts. ouch.), and no help from LCLs, which are in the 1200-1800 m range between 18z and 0z. You also have morning convection potentially screwing things up. What you DO have is high CAPE values of around 3000 J/kg, and PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches, which given slow steering flow and associated splitting storms, flash flooding may be a threat. you are the yang to stormspotterlive's yin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Sorry to be a Debby Downer, but I'm not that excited about Wednesday. Looking at the 0z NAM for KPHL, You have weak mid level lapse rates (850-500 mb lapse rates of 6.4 C/km...which is okay, but if you really want hail, you're looking for a 7), very little vertical shear (0-6 km shear speed maxes at 21.5 kts at 21z...given somewhat of a turning from W at the surface to NW at 500 mb, your 0-6 km shear vector *might* approach 30 kts, but probably will be below 25 kts. ouch.), and no help from LCLs, which are in the 1200-1800 m range between 18z and 0z. You also have morning convection potentially screwing things up. What you DO have is high CAPE values of around 3000 J/kg, and PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches, which given slow steering flow and associated splitting storms, flash flooding may be a threat. Tomorrow's morning convection is currently exiting Michigan. Let's see what the day brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Tomorrow's morning Tonight's convection is currently exiting Michigan. Let's see what the day brings. FIFY...the way it's moving it'll be here this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Sorry to be a Debby Downer, but I'm not that excited about Wednesday. Looking at the 0z NAM for KPHL, You have weak mid level lapse rates (850-500 mb lapse rates of 6.4 C/km...which is okay, but if you really want hail, you're looking for a 7), very little vertical shear (0-6 km shear speed maxes at 21.5 kts at 21z...given somewhat of a turning from W at the surface to NW at 500 mb, your 0-6 km shear vector *might* approach 30 kts, but probably will be below 25 kts. ouch.), and no help from LCLs, which are in the 1200-1800 m range between 18z and 0z. You also have morning convection potentially screwing things up. What you DO have is high CAPE values of around 3000 J/kg, and PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches, which given slow steering flow and associated splitting storms, flash flooding may be a threat. yea i agree, their will be storms but i don't see severe. I see more hvy rain threat than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 yea i agree, their will be storms but i don't see severe. I see more hvy rain threat than anything. Heavy rain and wind some lightning, but severe is now limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 they took awy the slgt risk tomorrow for the northeast... makes sense i think the early morning stuff will probably muck thing up a bit, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 they took awy the slgt risk tomorrow for the northeast... makes sense i think the early morning stuff will probably muck thing up a bit, if it comes through tonight (which it may given the pace it's going) they may be bumping back up to slight tomorrow. These storms have been outrunning modeling so far...may very well be through the region before daybreak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 RPM has storms tonight moving through between midnight and 6am then it clears out with sun by morning. Would suspect unless we get good elevated instability to move in they would be weaker in our area like it shows. as for Tomorrow I agree with the general see text maybe an isolated severe storm at best now but as other have mentioned the set up is not as great and heavy rain fall really does look like a bigger threat now. http://www.chicagowe...r.com/maps/rpm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 RPM has storms tonight moving through between midnight and 6am then it clears out with sun by morning. Would suspect unless we get good elevated instability to move in they would be weaker in our area like it shows. as for Tomorrow I agree with the general see text maybe an isolated severe storm at best now but as other have mentioned the set up is not as great and heavy rain fall really does look like a bigger threat now. http://www.chicagowe...r.com/maps/rpm/ Hmm. That shows the current MCS dies about where it is and then a new complex forms after dark, maybe along the outflow boundary and it looks pretty nasty until it gets to Lancaster where it starts to fizzle. I'm not saying that can't happen, but I wouldn't call that a high confidence forecast. I've never look at it systematically, but my gut says the models are pretty horrible with derecho's for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Hmm. That shows the current MCS dies about where it is and then a new complex forms after dark, maybe along the outflow boundary and it looks pretty nasty until it gets to Lancaster where it starts to fizzle. I'm not saying that can't happen, but I wouldn't call that a high confidence forecast. I've never look at it systematically, but my gut says the models are pretty horrible with derecho's for whatever reason. Cell NE of PIT has 1.25" hail per doppler...wouldn't shock me if it makes it pretty close to us later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Low level lapse rates are rather impressive right now. Lets see if this can help us at all. mid level lapse rates for what it is worth are not impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Low level lapse rates are rather impressive right now. Lets see if this can help us at all. mid level lapse rates for what it is worth are not impressive at all. If those cells can move into that environment maybe they can regenerate or form more storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Low level lapse rates are rather impressive right now. Lets see if this can help us at all. mid level lapse rates for what it is worth are not impressive at all. Yeah, but pretty much everything else is terrible. VA beach is another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning in Western PA...it'll be fun watching these head our way this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning in Western PA...it'll be fun watching these head our way this evening! You think they'll make it to us or will go south of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I think we have a chance of at least a shower, RAP shows something around midnight or 1 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 You think they'll make it to us or will go south of us? SE PA Screw Zone in Full Control. The Donut Hole Crew's Leader and Chief. Thats your answer for tongiht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 SE PA Screw Zone in Full Control. The Donut Hole Crew's Leader and Chief. Thats your answer for tongiht I gotta edit my signature lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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