Summer update: With June in the books and modestly cooler than normal, the regional string is broken

[CoastalWx]

Yeah...3 aspects about this:

1) -NAO doesn't have to mean cooler than normal here. The current Long Wave, wave-length is unusually long, though; I want to stress that point. You don't normally see a wave length that stretches the entire N/A continent like this. The -NAO and the size of the polar vortex on the EC makes heat untenable for our lat/lon. Maybe it all breaks down and doesn't verify that way - who knows? But the bottom line is, west-based -NAO with long wave length will shunt bigger heat from getting here other than short stays.

2) -NAO east based would mean a whole different ball of wax - we'd be melting said ball of wax. It's just that for some reason, just as much as it is a mystery why since 2008 we keep winding up with -NAO in the summer (+butt banging in the winter), this year just can't seem to move the blocking tendency closer to Iceland.

3) This doesn't have to mean cooler than normal all the time, and in fact ...it won't. Just look at tomorrow. We'll ...the NAM could be wrong of course, but...the 06z and 12z run has 29C at T1 on the FRH grid, with high l-level RH, indicative of screaming dew points. That vibes like an 88/75 for the interior I-95 and surrounding (winds off-shore SW). But then again, the NAM has really sucked with a certain panache over the past 7 to 10 days, so it may be less than currently trustworthy.

Yeah it doesn't always mean cooler than normal around here. One only has to look at last summer and even the summer before. I'm sure wavelengths and -NAO placement as you suggested plays an important role. Down in the MA, it actually has a reverse correlation.

[NJwinter23]

I know there is no proven scientific correlation between blocking and sun activity, but i find it interesting once again that we went into this period of persistent blocking in the past month while sunspot activity dropped off relatively speaking(and is certainly way down from where we would expect it in this state of the cycle)...the activity seems to be increasing again finally though, perhaps we reverse the nao state a bit going forward through 2nd half of July?

[Tropopause_Fold]

I know there is no proven scientific correlation between blocking and sun activity, but i find it interesting once again that we went into this period of persistent blocking in the past month while sunspot activity dropped off relatively speaking(and is certainly way down from where we would expect it in this state of the cycle)...the activity seems to be increasing again finally though, perhaps we reverse the nao state a bit going forward through 2nd half of July?

hopefully just in time for winter

[CoastalWx]

I know there is no proven scientific correlation between blocking and sun activity, but i find it interesting once again that we went into this period of persistent blocking in the past month while sunspot activity dropped off relatively speaking(and is certainly way down from where we would expect it in this state of the cycle)...the activity seems to be increasing again finally though, perhaps we reverse the nao state a bit going forward through 2nd half of July?

Is there a bit if a lag though? In other words, I'm not sure how quickly the rise and fall of solar activity affects the NAO domain. Not like we even understand the whole connection as you said, but I thought it would take a periods of weeks to possibly have an effect. I honestly don't know.

[NJwinter23]

Is there a bit if a lag though? In other words, I'm not sure how quickly the rise and fall of solar activity affects the NAO domain. Not like we even understand the whole connection as you said, but I thought it would take a periods of weeks to possibly have an effect. I honestly don't know.

I'm so far from an expert on this too, and i really wouldnt know the exact "connection" either. I've heard anything from there being a lag affect, to the solar wind, geomagnetic activity or sunspot activity showing the way...and I really couldnt tell you the difference. I just know that it was way too blocky in those 2 years during the extreme solar min. I know HM has successfully used the sun (some combination of all those factors I mentioned) to foretell some blocking periods in the past few winters.

[CoastalWx]

I'm so far from an expert on this too, and i really wouldnt know the exact "connection" either. I've heard anything from there being a lag affect, to the solar wind, geomagnetic activity or sunspot activity showing the way...and I really couldnt tell you the difference. I just know that it was way too blocky in those 2 years during the extreme solar min. I know HM has successfully used the sun (some combination of all those factors I mentioned) to foretell some blocking periods in the past few winters.

I do agree there is a connection to the two, and the theory as to why does make sense, especially when you go back to some of the years in the 50s and 60s where we had blocking with low solar. I'm a believer in that. And yeah, those years that were blocky as hell had such a low solar min.

[Tropopause_Fold]

let's see how well this verifies...NAM again going nuts with temps aloft...26C 850s to our west by Fri afternoon

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm so far from an expert on this too, and i really wouldnt know the exact "connection" either. I've heard anything from there being a lag affect, to the solar wind, geomagnetic activity or sunspot activity showing the way...and I really couldnt tell you the difference. I just know that it was way too blocky in those 2 years during the extreme solar min. I know HM has successfully used the sun (some combination of all those factors I mentioned) to foretell some blocking periods in the past few winters.

There are refereed sources available that go into the scientific [plausible] reasoning behind a correlation, though.

It has to do with ozone density at high altitudes/latitudes, trapped within the annular ring of the westerlies around the pole. It simplest terms, increased sun spot activity and attending radiation is thought to increase the destruction rate of ozone molecules; conversely, during relative quiescent times, ozone density is increased.

a ) Larger ozone concentration leads to increased SSW frequency, and overall warmer stratosphere in general. This limits the ambient vertical displacement depth of the vortex, shallowing it out, ultimately approaching breakdowns that lead to blocking at higher latitudes.

b ) Lower concentrations of ozone leads to a cooler environment, which allows for greater vertical displacement depths, intensifying vortexes at higher latitudes, and contracting the westerllies polarward.

a ) = -AO

b ) = +AO

That's the gist of the theoretical direction as the science stands now, as I am currently aware. If anyone has any recent additional and/or up to day discoveries/sources, by all means...

That all said, I think the idea proposed by Scott regarding "lags" must apply, because these things quite naturally take time to evolve. Unless the Earth is hit dead on by a CRB - then we're all dead anyway and it doesn't matter.

[ski MRG]

Nice disco guys. Good lunch time read.

[ski MRG]

Figures you would like those dumb hipster bands.

I like innovative artists of all stripes. I know it's tough for you mainstreamers to think outside the safe little box you exist in but there's a great big world out there.

[NJwinter23]

There are refereed sources available that go into the scientific [plausible] reasoning behind a correlation, though.

It has to do with ozone density at high altitudes/latitudes, trapped within the annular ring of the westerlies around the pole. It simplest terms, increased sun spot activity and attending radiation is thought to increase the destruction rate of ozone molecules; conversely, during relative quiescent times, ozone density is increased.

a ) Larger ozone concentration leads to increased SSW frequency, and overall warmer stratosphere in general. This limits the ambient vertical displacement depth of the vortex, shallowing it out, ultimately approaching breakdowns that lead to blocking at higher latitudes.

b ) Lower concentrations of ozone leads to a cooler environment, which allows for greater vertical displacement depths, intensifying vortexes at higher latitudes, and contracting the westerllies polarward.

a ) = -AO

b ) = +AO

That's the gist of the theoretical direction as the science stands now, as I am currently aware. If anyone has any recent additional and/or up to day discoveries/sources, by all means...

That all said, I think the idea proposed by Scott regarding "lags" must apply, because these things quite naturally take time to evolve. Unless the Earth is hit dead on by a CRB - then we're all dead anyway and it doesn't matter.

Ahh I actually do remember HM talking about this connection with ozone..doesnt the proton flux come into play here as well?

Thanks for the explanation.

[CoastalWx]

There are refereed sources available that go into the scientific [plausible] reasoning behind a correlation, though.

It has to do with ozone density at high altitudes/latitudes, trapped within the annular ring of the westerlies around the pole. It simplest terms, increased sun spot activity and attending radiation is thought to increase the destruction rate of ozone molecules; conversely, during relative quiescent times, ozone density is increased.

a ) Larger ozone concentration leads to increased SSW frequency, and overall warmer stratosphere in general. This limits the ambient vertical displacement depth of the vortex, shallowing it out, ultimately approaching breakdowns that lead to blocking at higher latitudes.

b ) Lower concentrations of ozone leads to a cooler environment, which allows for greater vertical displacement depths, intensifying vortexes at higher latitudes, and contracting the westerllies polarward.

a ) = -AO

b ) = +AO

That's the gist of the theoretical direction as the science stands now, as I am currently aware. If anyone has any recent additional and/or up to day discoveries/sources, by all means...

That all said, I think the idea proposed by Scott regarding "lags" must apply, because these things quite naturally take time to evolve. Unless the Earth is hit dead on by a CRB - then we're all dead anyway and it doesn't matter.

Yes and last year the AO vortex literally was from floor to ceiling. The surface to stratosphere. I mean it was a massive cyclonic gyre..lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yes and last year the AO vortex literally was from floor to ceiling. The surface to stratosphere. I mean it was a massive cyclonic gyre..lol.

Oh, yeah - heh. talk about suggestive - jesus.

The sun giveth, the sun taketh away

[Typhoon Tip]

Ahh I actually do remember HM talking about this connection with ozone..doesnt the proton flux come into play here as well?

Thanks for the explanation.

On an electro-chemical level I am unsure outside of what I can imagine as to how this all takes place. But it seems quite intuitive that trapping huge high energy proton fluxes via magnetic interaction with the solar wind, then having that surplus budget wind up rattling around in magnetic cage of the poles might - yeah that might have something to do with it.

I know more about the correlation than the correlation its self - which sounds contradictory. I'm trying to find the paper that has this equated.

[Typhoon Tip]

Eh, not the one I had in mind but it probably more than less gets us there...

http://matras.ujaen.es/pdf/04_nao.pdf

[Typhoon Tip]

I don’t think I have ever seen this … This is Milwaukee, Wis.

MKE//695558 -1392 122812 76262314 MSP//914908 -3893 081616 78212316

06000515027 01691 092211 79312316 06000623219 01489 062707 82312519

12000444509 -0192 072411 81342616 12000474117 -1288 052903 83342620

18000503814 02093 082322 81312616 18000655024 -1589 060809 83302718

24000505544 01793 092721 81302716 24000606027 -0192 071709 82292718

30000375632 -0291 092907 82362717

That’s basically a high of 102, a low of 90, and high of 106 the next day. Wow, Phoenix comes to the Great Lakes! Man, if that air mass were ever to turn east and come downslope - egads!

[Tropopause_Fold]

the euro isn't going to make the torch twins very happy. one warm/hot day on saturday....otherwise nothing of note at all.

actually breaks the back of the heat for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation after this weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yep, first day of autumn in 7 days ... part of me thinks this is running away with it and going too far, but we'll see.

[Tropopause_Fold]

[Typhoon Tip]

This is just f* nuts! It even drills a core of -850s into Ontario - IN MID JULY! These extremes are really just getting disturbing... Think back to those 90s in March... It's just been unceasing with these oddities.... If that didn't smack any different, that a -NAO relay into a +PNA, when the PNA isn't even supposed to register in the summer!!!!

[dendrite]

The ens aren't buying the severity of the op's cool down around d8-10.

[powderfreak]

Upslope snow in route? lol I'm only joking but if that played out and the upper level drifted east, that's pretty close to freezing temps on MWN above H85.

That's pretty crazy for July.

[powderfreak]

the euro isn't going to make the torch twins very happy. one warm/hot day on saturday....otherwise nothing of note at all.

actually breaks the back of the heat for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation after this weekend.

I just looked at my forecast and was astonished at how cooler it was than what I was expecting to see. BTV must've bought the ECM and the cooler models because aside from a day of mid 80s on Friday (which starts out with a low of 51F), it looks chilly for early/mid July.

Torch Twins cannot be happy about this, like you said.

Days and days of low 70s and low 50s overnight in the extended... and that's not high elevation, that's below 1,500ft.

If the 12z EURO is anywhere close to correct, next week (at least the work week) comes in solidly below normal across all of New England.

[Typhoon Tip]

The ens aren't buying the severity of the op's cool down around d8-10.

Yeah, at D7.5 ...or so, the Operational phases a spurious s/w that helps pull/energize the whole polar vortex S then uncharacteristically settles it in deeply. The polar vortex idea is an anomaly to begin with, but upon seeing the ensembles of the EC it seems the Operational is up to its usual tricks of going nutty with depth/digging of eastern N/A heights in that time range. The GFS keeps the polar vortex open as a trough, which is actually much more climatologically agreeable to begin with so some version of that is probably a valid correction there. That would likely mean more of the same with this lower amplitude +PNAP that brings us small windows of heat, truncated by normalcy.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro pattern was kind of cool to loop as it has this huge Greenland block forming and then retrograding which causes it to meet up with the Central Canadian ridge and form a rex block with the PV stuck to the east of the blocking ridge. Not that I'm expecting that bizarre ad wild scenario to verify but it was cool to watch when looping it.

[Typhoon Tip]

The Euro pattern was kind of cool to loop as it has this huge Greenland block forming and then retrograding which causes it to meet up with the Central Canadian ridge and form a rex block with the PV stuck to the east of the blocking ridge. Not that I'm expecting that bizarre ad wild scenario to verify but it was cool to watch when looping it.

Yeah, I intimated this earlier but it reminded me of a January like evolution, albeit about 60dm higher unilaterally. Probably won't happen that way, but it makes me wonder/worry about trusting this guidance source during the cold season.

[powderfreak]

Probably won't happen that way, but it makes me wonder/worry about trusting this guidance source during the cold season.

Probably wouldn't trust any one guidance source at 8-10 days in any season, cold or warm... I wouldn't worry about the ECM being less trustworthy at that lead time, it's pretty much a stab in the dark for all of the models at that point.

[Typhoon Tip]

Probably wouldn't trust any one guidance source at 8-10 days in any season, cold or warm... I wouldn't worry about the ECM being less trustworthy at that lead time, it's pretty much a stab in the dark for all of the models at that point.

In more advanced applications there are times when you can - they are not presented here, though I have in the past. It has to do with background teleconnector modes and so forth, but I'm checked out due to the holiday and am too lazy and non-caring at the moment to go there.

[Typhoon Tip]

Operational Euro came back to Earth. Not sure I am buying the 8-10D, 850mb +19C, though, just as much as I wasn't buying the deep polar vortex idea just the same. Taking a quick peak at the overnight tele's has a few NAO members rising to neutral - which is more than yesterday - during that time range so perhaps.

Today is shaping up to be a classic 4th of July day. Hazy, hot, humid.

[powderfreak]

In more advanced applications there are times when you can - they are not presented here, though I have in the past. It has to do with background teleconnector modes and so forth, but I'm checked out due to the holiday and am too lazy and non-caring at the moment to go there.

No I understand what you mean dude...more so than just looking at its deterministic forecast at face value...with more focus on the overall pattern.

Happy Fourth Tip