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Summer update: With June in the books and modestly cooler than normal, the regional string is broken

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Just got off the sound as the clouds moved in, I have never been so tan in my life. Did not feel all that warm even when the sun was out, what time should I expect Kevins damaging severe storms?

Somebody should start a summer tan thread, we can have a contest winner gets free drinks for the entire G2G

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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Pretty decent bust even there...was supposed to be at least 96F. But nothing like the bust going on up here where we haven't even hit 80F yet, lol.

Yeah for those of you that don't enjoy summer this was made specially for you. Tomorrow with highs upper 80's- near 90 north of pike will end up being much warmer behind the front lol

We had sun all day until 12:45 and allowed us to roast

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah for those of you that don't enjoy summer this was made specially for you. Tomorrow with highs upper 80's- near 90 north of pike will end up being much warmer behind the front lol

We had sun all day until 12:45 and allowed us to roast

80s is good enough for most of us in the summer. Plenty warm enough to enjoy outdoor activities and go swimming if you want.

97/74 is not comfortable for 99% of the population...too bad you didn't get your wish today, but most people are pretty happy I'd imagine.

And yes, tomorrow will probably be warmer than today only because today was literally 10F cooler than it was supposed to be. I'd be surprised if anybody hits 90F north of the pike though. 85-88F is more like it.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

80s is good enough for most of us in the summer. Plenty warm enough to enjoy outdoor activities and go swimming if you want.

97/74 is not comfortable for 99% of the population...too bad you didn't get your wish today, but most people are pretty happy I'd imagine.

And yes, tomorrow will probably be warmer than today only because today was literally 10F cooler than it was supposed to be. I'd be surprised if anybody hits 90F north of the pike though. 85-88F is more like it.

BDL might snag a heat wave..90 91 and maybe a 90 tomorrow
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Maybe it will be a north of the pike winter....this temp bust could be a preview of things to come.

My p/c and zfp have mid-80's still forecasted (down from the morning forecast of upper 80's). Currently 75.0 off a high of 76.4 with sun breaking through what had been perpetual overcast.

Big-time temp bust, ftw.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I try to stay clear of it but it's just too amusing to try sometimes... It's funny how the cold talking heads are taking a kind of laurel/moral victory and running to the bank with it regarding this bust - guys, it's not winter any more. And, then the counter point hot heads are are just lying. ahahhaha

Oh man. what can you do. Somewhere in between reality exists.

It seems pretty clear to me that the -NAO has been dominant, and "shunting" the more obvious heat signal from getting up N of roughtly NYC and points N-E. Many towns/cities in southern Michigan are on their 4th consecutive day of 100+/65 to 70DP, having apparent temperatures of 105 to 115 every day for many hours. Yet, we've had this continental A.C., courtesy of a deep layer NW that is pin in position by -NAO, and protecting us. Thus, the very best the hot weather enthusiast could have hoped for is glancing shots of big heat, then it settles back to at or slightly above normal.

I see that changing. This is complicated, but the AO and NAO are attempting to disconnect in the latter middle range on into the extended. The AO is tightly clustered around a total upward mode change of over 1SD. 1SD is not necessarily a big deal, but becomes a bigger matter when every GFS member is on board, and more importantly ultimately only ending up variant by .25 or so by the end of week 2. That means there is an overwhelming/strong hemispheric signal for the westerlies to contract polarward in association with emerging +AO. This can be seen as deep polar vortex situating nearly collocated with the NP, and then evolving in both operational ECM/GFS means by D7 onwards. That more or less stretches the NAO domain, weakening it's ability to reach back west and influence the NE CONUS. That should mean less NW and W component with building heights along the EC, and from what I can see of the operational tendencies, that is precisely what they are attempting to do. In fact, the trough in the nearer term is actually less like a L/W trough axis and behaving more like a negative default between the two dominating subtropical ridge nodes; one being Atlanticward, the other being west of the MV. We may recall, 7 days ago the Euro sniffed this weakness out as a mad trough with closed polar vortex cut off over N Maine, and even dropped a mass of 0C, 850mb air into Ontario. Ha! fat chance now.

These concepts are why in part I am more favoring of a D7-10 possible heat wave making it into NE. More than the previous suggestions of that time range that have proven false in the operational Euro, those didn't have these trend buckers in place. We'll see...

Edit: the AO progs correct +2.25 SD in the mean, with every member on board with only minor variation through the end of week two. This reval only adds confidence to my thinking that we are setting the table for bigger heat more locally. As the AO rises, the NAO part of the AO domain gets ripped apart and that will weaken the NAO total influence.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Everyone has AC there. Not like up here where like every third house doesn;t have it.

I know, but just doing outside stuff, working outside, even to cool off, I guess it pays to live near the water or have a pool. Thw metro is nice and cool. Pretty good transport system actually.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I know, but just doing outside stuff, working outside, even to cool off, I guess it pays to live near the water or have a pool. Thw metro is nice and cool. Pretty good transport system actually.

Even Annapolis hit 101* today. I was talknig to my daughter who lives in Severna Park. She was saying itj's just awful. Especially since she's running the Bridge of Flowers 10K race up here and is trying to ready herself for that.

Speaking of which--are any board members other than I running it?

www.bridgeofflowers10k.com

Turning into a nice late summer afternoon. Sun's shining, cool breeze (gust to 18mph at 6'), 76.4/60.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

4pm temps:

BOS: 82F

ORH: 79F

BDL: 82F

PVD: 85F

Life threatening type stuff.

Nice call doubting the high heat call. Glad you are back posting on a regular basis. It was tough watching Scooter combat the Blizz hype machine solo. I like how it's now the second half of July that will kill us all.

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