Summer update: With June in the books and modestly cooler than normal, the regional string is broken

[Typhoon Tip]

Boston, Providence, Worcester and Hartford all came in with negative temperature averages, ending and incredible 12 month streak of above normal means. There has been talk about where things will go from here. Here are some of me own observations on the matter.

The Global numerical models have demonstrated inconsistent performance this summer on how far NE in the U.S. the heat conveyors will penetrate, during the middle and extended ranges. There are many reason why the models will be inconsistent during those time ranges, notwithstanding; I believe in this local era it has been the –NAO handling. It just seems to me that even though the NAO domain has been somewhat less “blocky” as of late, there is still some vestigial tendency to lock a trough into the 50N/60W or thereabouts. The middle and extended range model depictions occasionally fill that feature and when they do they then bring in big heat; only to realizes later on that the trough is stubborn and won’t relent. They'll place +20 to occasionally even +24C 850mb air masses through much of Central and Southern New England, only to smash the heat down the coast by virtue this quasi-permanent NW flow aloft at nearer time intervals.

At some point it may. A lot of analogs are [apparently] quite warm for July. I would suggest in a minimum, though, that the –NAO needs to stop this "negative NAO summer" scenario before that will happen. Otherwise, episodic heat may favor more normalcy much of the time, or even below normal at times. It seems the models are currently inconsistent on how far NE in the U.S. the heat conveyor will penetrate for this weekend, being a good example of all this, before yet again smashing the heat down the coast by this quasi-permanent NW flow aloft.

[New England Storm]

It would be nice to see some average temps. However we might just see a few spells of above average temps that could set July as another hot month. We will have to see what the next two weeks brings.

[weathafella]

Since the solstice, it has been warm but the biggest part of the torch has eluded us. I think we go +1.2 in eastern MA for July and the big heat rolls over us In August and early September. However, I grow more and more optimistic that we break this big time during the cold season.

I know the August forecast is against niño analogs but this is how I see it evolving.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Since the solstice, it has been warm but the biggest part of the torch has eluded us. I think we go +1.2 in eastern MA for July and the big heat rolls over us In August and early September. However, I grow more and more optimistic that we break this big time during the cold season.

I know the August forecast is against niño analogs but this is how I see it evolving.

Squirrels are living large this summer

[ORH_wxman]

The general CONUS pattern has me thinking July will come in above normal in New England, but right now it doesn't look like the last 2 Julys with excessively positive monthly departures. The best chance in this pattern for above normal is definitely the further southwest you go.

The persistent vortex near AK will tend to promote the subtropical ridge to flex its muscles in the central and southern US...but the NAO block forming over Greenland over the next week will introduce us with some troughiness over New England which should limit the effectiveness of the heat ridges building in.

[Typhoon Tip]

The general CONUS pattern has me thinking July will come in above normal in New England, but right now it doesn't look like the last 2 Julys with excessively positive monthly departures. The best chance in this pattern for above normal is definitely the further southwest you go.

The persistent vortex near AK will tend to promote the subtropical ridge to flex its muscles in the central and southern US...but the NAO block forming over Greenland over the next week will introduce us with some troughiness over New England which should limit the effectiveness of the heat ridges building in.

Yeah, pretty much paraphrases my own thoughts - the -NAO is really not the warm weather enthusiasts friend in this. I suppose if it were to slip east as an east based one that would make a huge difference, but it seems the west based has been the predominating signal.

[CoastalWx]

LL and Kevin pretty much think +3 or better for us. The overall pattern supports the trough in the east for a majority of the time...albeit warmer than normal.

[Damage In Tolland]

After the next 7 days most sites should be +3 or warmer..so it will be off to a hot start..then if we have a warmdown next week to slightly above..maybe it gets down to +2 eveyrwhere..

Then the last 2 weeks or at least 10 days looks like heat blasts east again on ensembles and weeklies..so that should be enough to get near +3

[ORH_wxman]

Then the last 2 weeks or at least 10 days looks like heat blasts east again on ensembles and weeklies..so that should be enough to get near +3

If only that was what it actually looked like, it would be a great synopsis.

[Logan11]

I'm not really a Global Warming person, but it's just very anomalously hot under the main long wave "heat" ridge. While situated to our west (also was last July), enough bleeds in to give us a little above normal July perhaps.

[Mr Torchey]

LL and Kevin pretty much think +3 or better for us. The overall pattern supports the trough in the east for a majority of the time...albeit warmer than normal.

I do?????

I have 2.0 for BOS and 2.9 for NYC

[Damage In Tolland]

If only that was what it actually looked like, it would be a great synopsis.

What has gotten into you the last few months? Was it Megan's ultimatum?

First you disappear for months, don't respond to anyone/s calls or texts..then come back and just argue and dispute everything and troll incessantly.

What happened to the nice Will who was talkative, helpful, and fun to interact with?

[ORH_wxman]

What has gotten into you the last few months? Was it Megan's ultimatum?

First you disappear for months, don't respond to anyone/s calls or texts..then come back and just argue and dispute everything and troll incessantly.

What happened to the nice Will who was talkative, helpful, and fun to interact with?

Lol...first, I have a new job in Boston in which the process of getting it was time consuming.

Secondly, I only started trolling you after you passive aggressively took shots when we were talking about the different cool downs in June putting words into mine (and others) mouths. I didn't do it without provocation.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol...first, I have a new job in Boston in which the process of getting it was time consuming.

Secondly, I only started trolling you after you passive aggressively took shots when we were talking about the different cool downs in June putting words into mine (and others) mouths. I didn't do it without provocation.

Well congrats on the new job..If you had answered our texts..maybe we would have known and could have helped the transition. But again. congrats.

All I'm saying is we miss the old Will. Please bring him back

[ski MRG]

Well congrats on the new job..If you had answered our texts..maybe we would have known and could have helped the transition. But again. congrats.

All I'm saying is we miss the old Will. Please bring him back

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not really a Global Warming person, but it's just very anomalously hot under the main long wave "heat" ridge. While situated to our west (also was last July), enough bleeds in to give us a little above normal July perhaps.

Although if you ask a purest, A-GW started when man concurred fire...buuuut we won't go there.

New England could at any point over the next month suffer, big time. If and perhaps when the NAO domain permits, a continental shift of heat eastward would likely ensue.

[Typhoon Tip]

One could almost imagine ... this still shot prior to animating almost looks as though she's got a handful of his junk and is squeezing unbearably hard.

[Typhoon Tip]

Lol...first, I have a new job in Boston in which the process of getting it was time consuming.

Secondly, I only started trolling you after you passive aggressively took shots when we were talking about the different cool downs in June putting words into mine (and others) mouths. I didn't do it without provocation.

Not sabotage this thread by asking a practical question, but what is the job?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sabotage this thread by asking a practical question, but what is the job?

"Weenie crusher"?

[CoastalWx]

Figures you would like those dumb hipster bands.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Northampton just institutued a water ban yesterday in effect until further notice.

[donsutherland1]

Lol...first, I have a new job in Boston in which the process of getting it was time consuming.

Congratulations on the new job!

[dendrite]

Figures you would like those dumb hipster bands.

Haters gonna hate

[CoastalWx]

Haters gonna hate

I actually think it's more because of the long hair. Sort of like a brotherhood of pony tails and mullets.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Northampton just institutued a water ban yesterday in effect until further notice.

We could def use some rain here

[CoastalWx]

We could def use some rain here

Even at my house, soil is rather dry. We missed the storms that areas west and south got over the last week.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm pretty impressed by the NAO overnight... New nadir in the prognostication has materialized with a significant clustering among the various GFS ensemble members. They are bringing the index down as far as it has during the previous two minimums - this does not bode well for the first 10 days of July, when and where we would be setting the foundation for a warmer than normal month - and by warmer, to be fair we are not talking +.1, we mean significantly warm biased.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out. The operational Euro goes so far as to create an actual sub-polar vortex in or around 70W/60N, which is highly highly unusual for mid summer. This pins deep layer NW flow right out through D10 and significantly mutes even the previously signaled heat for this weekend. The operational GFS keeps the trough somewhat more open, but both retrograde a new 564+DM height node west straight through the D. Straight region, and given to the fact that the mid latitude Rosby wave count is unusually low leading into that, what results is basically a January flow orientation sitting over a July weather map.

Normally this kind of bullying in by the runs wouldn't be tolerated, but the CPC NAO nightly index is really hell-bent at drilling the NAO to -2SD yet for a 3rd time since June 1st, and we've already seen that New England has been in a kind of micro-climate that separates us from the rest of the Nation so far this summer, and it has clearly been attributed to the NAO's influence. I recall musing to Scott in early June as to "weather" this would be a negative NAO summer or not - if we get to the 15th of July, that's half the show already.

I am finding a hotter than normal July increasingly more difficult to visualize given these longer lead indicators/persistence. We'll see. But the NAO is always a wild-card. One ending comment to this update; the longer term (as in decadal) signal is for greater probability for -NAO/-EPO/-AO, whether at the same time or in quadrature, notwithstanding. That is purely suggestive off the observed 300 year oscillatory nature, where reconstruction of the indices demonstrates a 20-30 year up-down variance. We've all seen this graphically, but we have since the mid 2010's slipped negative again. For the next couple of decades, at any given time the NAO is favored to be negative, as suggested by that curve. Unfortunately, the uncertainty enters because the domains are sensitive to other forces, such as volcanism, solar storms ...etc. Last winter was really an incongruous (...fantastically so actually) result and it or may have had something to do with late 2011 increased solar storm activity (enter any number of refereed papers here!).

At any time, should the NAO alleviate and pull the westerlies N ...however brief that may be, it gets hot real real fast and furious. However long any said alleviation lasts, I am fairly highly confident THAT will determine whether July is substantially above normal, or not. > than +2.0F

The point I'm trying to make is that barring these other factors, perhaps the NAO merely is slipping back into the background, longer term signal.

[CoastalWx]

I'm pretty impressed by the NAO overnight... New nadir in the prognostication has materialized with a significant clustering among the various GFS ensemble members. They are bringing the index down as far as it has during the previous two minimums - this does not bode well for the first 10 days of July, when and where we would be setting the foundation for a warmer than normal month - and by warmer, to be fair we are not talking +.1, we mean significantly warm biased.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out. The operational Euro goes so far as to create an actual sub-polar vortex in or around 70W/60N, which is highly highly unusual for mid summer. This pins deep layer NW flow right out through D10 and significantly mutes even the previously signaled heat for this weekend. The operational GFS keeps the trough somewhat more open, but both retrograde a new 564+DM height node west straight through the D. Straight region, and given to the fact that the mid latitude Rosby wave count is unusually low leading into that, what results is basically a January flow orientation sitting over a July weather map.

Normally this kind of bullying in by the runs wouldn't be tolerated, but the CPC NAO nightly index is really hell-bent at drilling the NAO to -2SD yet for a 3rd time since June 1st, and we've already seen that New England has been in a kind of micro-climate that separates us from the rest of the Nation so far this summer, and it has clearly been attributed to the NAO's influence. I recall musing to Scott in early June as to "weather" this would be a negative NAO summer or not - if we get to the 15th of July, that's half the show already.

I am finding a hotter than normal July increasingly more difficult to visualize given these longer lead indicators/persistence. We'll see. But the NAO is always a wild-card. One ending comment to this update; the longer term (as in decadal) signal is for greater probability for -NAO/-EPO/-AO, whether at the same time or in quadrature, notwithstanding. That is purely suggestive off the observed 300 year oscillatory nature, where reconstruction of the indices demonstrates a 20-30 year up-down variance. We've all seen this graphically, but we have since the mid 2010's slipped negative again. For the next couple of decades, at any given time the NAO is favored to be negative, as suggested by that curve. Unfortunately, the uncertainty enters because the domains are sensitive to other forces, such as volcanism, solar storms ...etc. Last winter was really a incongruous (...fantastically so actually) result and it or may have had something to do with late 2011 increased solar storm activity (enter any number of refereed papers here!).

At any time, should the NAO alleviate and pull the westerlies N ...however brief that may be, it gets hot real real fast and furious. However long any said alleviation lasts, I am fairly highly confident THAT will determine whether July is substantially above normal, or not. > than +2.0F

The point I'm trying to make is the barring these other factors, perhaps the NAO merely is slipping back into the background, longer term signal.

The EC is also drilling the NAO rather negative before rising to near neutral towards the end of week 2. There seems to be this -NAO that occurs every summer since 2008. I ave no idea why, but it has been occurring. Could be just coincidence perhaps or something more?

Anyways, who knows if it will last through the summer...just interesting to note.

[Typhoon Tip]

The EC is also drilling the NAO rather negative before rising to near neutral towards the end of week 2. There seems to be this -NAO that occurs every summer since 2008. I ave no idea why, but it has been occurring. Could be just coincidence perhaps or something more?

Anyways, who knows if it will last through the summer...just interesting to note.

Yeah...3 aspects about this:

1) -NAO doesn't have to mean cooler than normal here. The current Long Wave, wave-length is unusually long, though; I want to stress that point. You don't normally see a wave length that stretches the entire N/A continent like this. The -NAO and the size of the polar vortex on the EC makes heat untenable for our lat/lon. Maybe it all breaks down and doesn't verify that way - who knows? But the bottom line is, west-based -NAO with long wave length will shunt bigger heat from getting here other than short stays.

2) -NAO east based would mean a whole different ball of wax - we'd be melting said ball of wax. It's just that for some reason, just as much as it is a mystery why since 2008 we keep winding up with -NAO in the summer (+butt banging in the winter), this year just can't seem to move the blocking tendency closer to Iceland.

3) This doesn't have to mean cooler than normal all the time, and in fact ...it won't. Just look at tomorrow. We'll ...the NAM could be wrong of course, but...the 06z and 12z run has 29C at T1 on the FRH grid, with high l-level RH, indicative of screaming dew points. That vibes like an 88/75 for the interior I-95 and surrounding (winds off-shore SW). But then again, the NAM has really sucked with a certain panache over the past 7 to 10 days, so it may be less than currently trustworthy.

[weathafella]

Great discussion and excellent analysis John, thank you!

Scott....astute point. Persistent NAO only broken by the winter of 2011-12.